Chaos

very odd that your comment seems to have been posted nine minutes before mine, but did not appear until after my most recent comment.

I am surprised, that no one has really challenged the equal breakdown among the three pieces of HC QB and Everything else. The people who are confident Defense makes Champions, or everything has to first be built out from the trenches might want to disagree. My bias was QB was more important than head coach previously. But among the rarefied group of multiple Super Bowl winning head coaches, several did it with less than elite QBs, and with more than one QB. Only two QBs won super bowls with more than one Head Coach, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. I now lean towards thinking coaching is the most important. Obviously the mix of QB and Everything else can be radically different. The 1985 bears would make a case for busting the limit and getting a 50 on "everything else" with a 25 QB and a 30 Coach.

If the goal is to get to and win the super bowl the Rams/McVays wide gamut strategy seems more effective than building to be consistently above average without the ability to hit the highest peaks.

I just established 2023 Chiefs as 100 to pivot around. three parts, 33,33,34 =100, then adjusted the components leaving Reid, elevating Mahomes, lowering everything else. Since the 2023 Chiefs were not the greatest super bowl winner ever, their needs to be room to grow. I arbitrarily picked 120 as the point to grow two, and then divided it equally to say 40 is the peak. I believe you.

Playoff history suggests Lamar and Allen are quite different. I ranked Lamar very high based on 2024 regular season results. I think the perception of Lamar is higher because of the supporting cast, in particular Derrick Henry. With all due respect to James Cook who had a great season. Coaches are not worrying nearly as much about defending him as Henry. Everything else as I mentioned, includes home field advantage for the playoffs. That favors the Bills. And overall I think the Bills roster is not that far behind the Ravens. I don't put much stock in pro bowl selections. Ravens defense has holes too. How would you score the Ravens vs the Bills. Yes that is why I closed the original post mentioning past is not prologue, and taking specifically into account the possibility of playoff Mahomes.

It ridiculous hard to win a super bowl. Since 1966 there have been 314 Head coaches in the NFL. Only 35 have won a Super Bowl. Five Head coaches have won a full 1/3 of all Super Bowls between them. 14 have won almost 2/3s. Winning CoachWinsRunning Total Similar Story for QBs: In my opinion everyone on the HC list above, except Siefert (who inherited Walsh's team and system) demonstrated coaching greatness during the careers. That is not quite as obvious on the QB list. Griese, Eli Manning, and Plunkett would all be sort of forgetable other than their Super Bowl wins. Notwithstanding statistics, the rest of the QBs on the list demonstrated greatness.

Its 2025, and there is still no prompt for spelling errors. Which does lead to humor

Thats not the correct conclusion. The correct conclusion is that this years super bowl team will be flawed compared to last years winner. Separately, the team that wins, will demonstrate some elevation of one of the components over the last three games.

my opinion. I did put notes explaining my opinion on coaching towards the end.

Super Bowl Winning Formula This formula aims to quantify the factors contributing to Super Bowl success by assigning scores to three key areas: Coaching: Assessment based on past season ending results with heaviest weight on most recent results. Quarterback: Assesses the quarterback's overall talent and results. Everything Else: Encompasses the collective strength of the roster (excluding the QB), including factors like offensive and defensive line play, skill position talent, special teams, and overall team depth. It also includes playoff factors like bye weeks and homefield advantage. Scoring System Each area receives a score on a scale of 0-40, with higher scores indicating greater strength. A Super Bowl-winning caliber team would score around 100 in total. The 1989 Niners would be closest to 120 in the Super Bowl era The average team scores around 50 (16 for coach, 16 for QB, 17 for everything else). 2024 Jets score 35 (0 for coach, 16 for QB, 19 for everything else. (Included just for fun) 2023 Kansas City Chiefs (Super Bowl Champions) Andy Reid (Coach): 33 Patrick Mahomes (QB): 39 Everything Else: 28 Total: 100 2024 Remaining Playoff Team Analysis Here's how the remaining contenders stack up based on this formula: Coaching Tier Notes Top Tier: I consider Andy Reid and Sean McVay the top two coaches in the NFL due to their recent Super Bowl visit and consistent success. McVay has done this with two different QBs, neither of whom is best of the best Second Tier: Coaches like John Harbaugh, Sean McDermott, Nick Sirianni, and Dan Campbell all have similar results overall and I have clustered their scores closely together. Third Tier: DeMeco Ryans is slightly lower due to inexperience, but early results suggest he could be on par with the second tier. Below Average: Based on lack of past success i rank Dan Quinn below the rest but still above average overall Past is not always prologue. Josh's playoff career is stellar. The hope is that he plays at his past level. Its not reasonable to expect more. The Bills coaching and the rest of the team will have to be better to vanquish the Ravens and Chiefs. Mahomes is on a down year. If we see peak Mahomes in the playoffs the Chiefs are pretty big favorites. If we see 2024 standard Mahomes, the Chiefs are beatable.

Each year the NFL does a definitive evaluation of the combined draft selection, free agent signing, trades, and coaching staff building capabilities of the GMs. Hopefully this year Beane is #1 in the combined total.

Texans are the fourth seed. There is no system where 1 does not play 4 and two does not play 3 when the top four all make it to the semi-finals. The absurity is the sole bye.

Final 8 every year.

Some times it disturbs me that the Dilbert guy is smarter than almost all of our political leaders.

I don't know if "waiting to pounce" is really accurate. A lot of people have been quite vocal, that if the Bills can't advance past the divisional round again this year, they will want to see a coaching change.

The last head coach / QB combo to be on a team as long as McDermott/Allen before winning a super bowl, was Madden/Stabler in the 70's.

players will never see it on the bulletin board. its just a blip merged in with thousands of other blips on the gigantic bulletin board.

On the verge?

12 liberal Canadian senators while you eliminate several conservative senators. Your off your game.

Quebec can be left out. But we don't need six new states from Canada.

After Hollins pushes Surtain's head.

Why not the Praetorian Guard?

Laws?