Chaos

Top Eight is our consistent finish.

do you mean "serviceable" or are we taking Ed to Wimbledon.

How many DT's are on NFL Roster? Do you really think Oliver is currently the 11th best? This isn't like QBs where each team has 1. Most teams (particularly the Bills rotate multiple DTs). Oliver did not even rank in the top 32, in snaps played in 2022. PFF ranked Oliver 43 best interior lineman in 2023. Not that PFF is the begin all and end all of player evaluations, but they do get paid a lot of money by NFL teams for their analysis, so it is not like it totally make believe either. This extension is based on Beane and McDermott being smarter than everyone else when grading interior linemen in the NFL.

the biggest indicator of future performance is past performance. I suspect that if you lined up all the fourth year veterans at every position, and ranked their most recent two years purely on production, and then four years later reranked them based on the second four years production, that except for injuries, there would be very little reranking. Hoping players are going to improve at a faster rate than there peers is not really a strategy,

based on the kick the can down the road actions taken so far, and if people expect oliver to instantly restructure to save another 7 mm of 2023 cap space, then you may have to modify your comment to read ...."Our FO's stated approach"

Prior to the Oliver signing the bills were 14 million over the 2024 cap. Restructuring money out of 2023 has an impact in future years. We saw the impact on the Rams last year. Cap problems are an actual thing.

Statistics don't work particularly well for football in general, compared to MLB at least. It seems like teams should have some concept analogous to WAR (wins against replacement). It seems to me, that DT has a pretty small impact among all players. Oliver is going to be better than some guy get $4 million a season. The tougher question is that difference worth 13 million, or can that 13 million have a bigger impact at a different position.

The board response to a Gabe Davis extension is going to be epic.

Most Super Bowls are won by teams with the deepest DT rotation. You can look it up.

A first round pick who does not play significant snaps as a rookie, has wasted a valuable rookie contract year.

Does anyone who posts on the board have a staff of professional scouts to assist them on personnel decisions? Don't sell people short.

This did not age well

Reason for Optimism: Wizardly extension of Ed Oliver.

I don't like or dislike the rental approach. My only point is despite what any GM says, the rules dictate that everybody more or less follow the same strategy. Teams are not at all in the same place in the cycle, so it may look different. But the Chiefs, Ravens, Bills and Bengals are all following the exact same strategy because that the rules force it. The team that is better at executing what the rules force does the best. Last year I think the Chiefs played 11 different starters from the previous season at times. Almost the opposite of continuity. They had a brilliant draft netting four productive starters. If the Bills had the chiefs draft and FA signing, and the Chiefs had the Bills draft and FA signing the results may have flipped flopped.

A review of the Patriots run of multiple championships shows that only a small number of the same core players were on the roster between championships, and of course between the first and last only one player remained on the roster. I am not aware of any data that demonstrates the championship teams have less turnover than other teams.

Wizardry?

The salary cap (its real folks), rookie contract rules, the benefits of free agency to the player and draft position in inverse order of finish position means every team in the NFL, has to turn over the vast majority of its roster every several years. There is no alternative. There is no strategic of philosophical way to avoid it.

Until I read this post, I had completely forgot about Singletary. His actual production will be fairly easily replaced.

I am glad you know about google.

Will DeAndre Hopklns Next Contract have a value Higher, Lower or the Same as OBJ's contract? There are reports that a Chiefs deal with Cardinals was almost complete, and was derailed by the OBJ contract, because DHOP believes he should be paid more. The poll question is not asking is DHOP worth more or less. The question is strictly on where you think DHOPs contract value ends up vs. OBJs.

He was not good last year. The pre-acl sample set may no longer be relevant. It seems almost impossible for him to return to best in the league.

Feel free to not read.

That is not what Hines said. But ok.

Mahomes far greater than McNab, that is the main difference between Philly Reid and KC Reid.