Chaos

In games where the Bills hav a passer rating over 100, the bills are 16-2 the last three years. In all other games, the Bills are .500. Side note, other teams experience similar levels of success when their teams go over 100. Recent example agains the Bills was the Patriots 129 rating the 18 games over a 100 passer rating places the Bills eighth in the league over that time frame. So the risk is two-fold 1) will the Bills have fewer elite QB performances with McDermott gone. It seems McDermott has little or nothing to with this factor. Given Allen’s physical talent level, being ranked higher than eight with a new head coach seems as likely as ranking lower. Secondly only one team over that time period has more than 50 percent of games over 100 passer rating, surprisingly to me, the niners. As a data point KC had 49 percent vs the bills 44 percent over 100. So half the games need to be won without an elite QB performance. McDermott is actually solid, being at a bit over .500 for these games. Andy Reid gaps out from everyone by winning 64 Percent of the games without an elite passer performance in the game. So the second risk is whether or not there are HCs available who can win at least half the games, when the passer rating is below elite level. This is a real risk. My personal opinion is that there is some upside of increasing the number of passer rating above 100 games. And there should be coaches available who can also win 50 percent of the other games. Winning is the Super Bowl likely requires improving both winning percentages. After six seasons, I don’t know or any reason to think McDermott will improve in win percentage for the 50 percent plus non elite passer games, nor increase the number of elite Passer rating performances. In summary, there is risk to making a change. And there might be a reward for the change. Keeping McDermott is less risky, but at this point I don’t foresee any rewards.

Wide right, while not a crazy way to lose, is the grandfather of the Billsy ways to lose games.

Did you know Sean McVays qualifications to be a HC before the rams hired him at 34 years old? Did you know who Nick Siriani or Zac Taylor were before they were hired. I ask because I did not. I think it is silly to think fan knowledge is a meaningful factor in assessing risk

McDermott has no reason to lie about this. He clearly made the decision himself. Needed an immediate distraction from the 12 men on the field coaching mistake, after two time outs were taken that could have been used to make sure things were organized for the obvious play.

asinine post

Was Dorsey responsible for 12 men on the field?

McDermott's Bills is the most accurate description.

Is there a single serious fan who thinks that that McDermott does better end of game management than they could. He is truly horrible at that particular part of coaching. I can't even think of a HC in NFL worse at that aspect. In fact I am curious if anyone has any candidates for worse than McDermott at end of game management.

McDermott knows what the difference is between weeks 2-4, and the no rythm offense since then.

Half way through the game my wife, who substantial sports coaching experience, asked me "do the Bills coaches watch film?'

Fortunately, our QB compensates for the turnovers as well as the NFLs other turnover machines, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrows.

I think what really matters with the offense is if Brady is better than Dorsey at not letting McDermott meddle in the offense.

We have had our blood letting. Time to move on. How badly will the Blills beat the Jets this week?

I think it’s nearly guaranteed that the dumpster fire we are seeing on the field is more important than secret, hidden behind-the-scenes stuff

Interesting take you might be right

One of the commentators mentioned that Cook was held out because he had lost his composure. Not as punishment. And was re-inserted when he regained his composure. If true that seems like a legit reason to hold him out.

My prediction, even if the Bills lose out, is that the Bills organization that gave McDermott a large extension this past off season will push the narrative that “Even Hall of Fame coaches have bad seasons. The great ender of droughts deserves a rebound season”

Like McDermott firing Dorsey

If the Bills advance to the AFC championship game , yes. Else no.

McDermott can’t build a defense or special teams unit that can close out games. This has been the case for many years. We can win games when Allen is super man. Shaking things up in the hope and prayer Allen can be Superman is McDermotts only card to play. He has no competence to help the offense on his own.

If the new OC does great it shows McD can’t assess offensive coaching talent properly. If he does poorly, it shows McDermott is useless with regards to the offense.

Wow

This can be statistically demonstrated. Only 4 teams had passer ratings over 100 last season. If one arbitrarily says a game with a passer rating over 100 is an elite QB performance, the Bills have had 18 such games out of 43 played including playoffs. In those 18 games, the Bills are 16-2. In the other 25 games they are 13-12. BTW 18 of 43 games is a high percentage of elite performances.

The view is very likely to be “even HOF coaches have a bad season, he has earned the right to see if he bounces back “

So your saying, you like this year's play from Allen better than his record setting prior years?