The math does not make winning out seem likely. Lets aggressively assume the bills are 90% likely to win all the games except that Patriots game and the liklihood in the patriots game is 60% the Bills will win.
90% x 60% x 90% x 90% x 90% = 39% probability of winning out based on the agressive paramaters given.
Then assuming we are wild card in the playoffs, and it would take three road wins and a neutral site win to win the super bowl. Even though the Bills road playoff history assumes we might not be favored in any road games, lets assume the bills have a 70% chance to win each of the four games.
70% x 70% x 70% 70% = 24%.
having to win three instead of four is such a huge advantage for the #1 seed. Add on the guarantee of playing the lowest remaing seed in the two playoff games, and the extra week rest and prep time, it is just gigantic. In a year where no AFC team is standing out, the team that gets the #1 seed is probably the favorite to go to the super bowl.