Billl

I guess I didn’t realize that this was your own creation. You’re never going to achieve consensus trying to quantify the unquantifiable, but you need it to pass the common sense test. If I were to put something similar together, I would start by combining methods that are already established. For example, draft value charts aren’t exact, but they’re pretty good in terms of estimating trade equivalencies. My step 1 would be to total up the draft value points used. My second step would be to find a measure of determining a player’s contribution irrespective of draft position. There are plenty of versions of these as well, so it’s a matter of picking your favorite. For the sake of argument, I’ll go with Pro-football-reference.com and their Approximate Value stat. It’s far from perfect (I don’t think Fred Warner had a better season than Patrick Mahomes, for example), but it’s a decent jumping off point. (That said, it has Willie Gay at 4 and Sneed at 3, so even this method is going to be terrible.) An possibly better, though more tedious, way would be to reference a redraft and assign players values based on the draft chart value of their redraft position. Here’s one that I found, but I have no idea on its quality. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2926937-redrafting-the-2020-nfl-draft It shows Sneed at 25 and CEH at 32, for reference. From there, I would take the sum total of AAV (or redraft score) of the draft class and divide it by the total draft chart points. A quick example using Sneed and CEH would show that 627 points of draft value were used on them in the actual draft. The redraft positions are worth 1310 points, so they would have a “surplus value” of 109% (they returned 2.09 points of value for every point spent on them). Justin Jefferson returned 1700 points in the redraft versus the 780 points spent on him, so he had a surplus value of 920 points. (As I think about it, I don’t really like the percentage method much, as it really overvalues a seventh rounder who may have had a draft value of 3 points who would have gone in the sixth round with a value of 12 points for a 400% return whereas a Justin Herbert was drafted at a cost of 1600 and a redraft taking him first overall would score him at 3000 points for less than a 200% return.) One note is that UDFAs should absolutely be included in any method and given a draft capital score of 0?

You have to sign Allen now. He doesn’t want to risk a major injury next season without any guaranteed future payday. If you’re going to make him take that risk, he may as well tell the organization to get F’d and go play for a team that will look out for their superstar.

Yeah, that was a passive aggressive joke about not needing a punter. 😇

You’re comparing stats using DIFFERENT POSITIONS. Of course a WR is going to skew the stats on a per touch basis versus a RB. Let’s “take names out of it” again. Would you rather have 240 touches, 1925 yards, and 25 TDs or 378 touches, 2027 yards, and 19 TDs? If you chose the first, congratulations. You got Robert Tonyan, Jonnu Smith, and David Johnson. I’ll stick with Derrick Henry.

This is another gem of an argument. Moss is a short yardage back. You don’t get to just double his touches and say he’d have doubled his TDs. It doesn’t work that way. Otherwise, John Brown would have thrown 572 touchdown passes if they had let him throw as many passes as Allen did. If Moss could have put up 85 yards per game as a feature back, he’d be the feature back. He’s not exactly backing up Thurman Thomas. McDermott would relegate Singletary to spot duty in a heartbeat if he had a feature back on the roster.

What an amazing cherry pick. You just compared the two most productive players from the Bills class. Scratch that. You just compared the ENTIRETY of the production of the Bills draft class to one pick from the Chiefs class. Were all of the Bills apples more productive in 29 games played than one of the Chiefs oranges was in 13 games played? Sure. Would any GM in the league, if given the option, take Davis and Moss over Edwards-Elaire? Absolutely not. That said, the rest of the Bills class to date has netted a roughly average season by a Kicker and absolutely nothing else. The rest of the Chiefs class has produced a starting LB, a #1 CB, and a DE who played 50% of the snaps. I just don’t get why this is even a conversation. Without Davis, who had a solid but unspectacular season as a #4 Wideout, the Bills draft has been a total bust. Again, it’s way way too early to start labeling picks as busts, but if we’re talking about one season of sample size...yikes. Epenesa (who I wanted the Chiefs to draft) just doesn’t look like an NFL player walking out of the locker room, and his performance on the field has been negligible. So far, he looks like a bad pick. Moss looks like a guy with some power in short yardage but who has no speed and no value catching the ball out of the backfield. There are 50 guys on practice squads who can do that. After consecutive drafts taking a RB in the third round, the Bills biggest hole on offense is at RB. Looks like a bad pick. Davis has looked good. He doesn’t look elite, but he could turn into a nice piece. Good pick. Bass...was a kicker taken in the 6th round. That’s a total waste of a pick. He’d likely have been available as an UDFA. If not, Sloman or Blankenship would have been. The rest didn’t even see the field. Let’s talk “value” though. The Bills made selections worth 580 points according to the draft value chart. The Chiefs made selections worth 1040 points. If you throw out the first round pick to make a more fair comparison, KC had 450 points. For the sake of discussion, we can call that even. Buffalo got the players mentioned above (11 total starts) while Kansas City has a starting LB, a #1 CB, and a productive rotational DE. How’s that for surplus value?

I do understand every single word you’ve said. It’s just flawed no matter how you slice it. Buffalo’s highest pick was DE Epenesa at 54. He was clearly outperformed by Kansas City’s DE, Danna, drafted 123 picks later. Each team picked a RB. Moss went with pick 86. CEH went with pick 32. CEH had double the yards in the regular season and equal TDs, but CEH is still adding value in the postseason with a TD on Sunday and will be the feature back in the Super Bowl. Moss’s production was replacement level from a third rounder. CEH had 1100 yards in 13 games. Both team’s best player so far was taken in the 4th round. Davis was taken ahead of Sneed and, while solid, Sneed’s production as a shutdown corner dwarfed Davis’s 599 yards and 7 TDs. That’s pretty much it for Buffalo’s rookie production unless you want to count a 6th round Kicker who was solid, but KC grabbed a Punter as an UDFA who was also solid, so that’s basically a wash. Then there’s the Chiefs second round pick, Willie Gay Jr. who will be a starting LB in the Super Bowl. There’s also UDFA Tershawn Wharton who played 50% of the snaps at DT and 2 sacks, and forced a fumble which he recovered. The ONLY thing you can point to that shows some “surplus value” would be the fact that Moss was taken a round and a half after CEH, but he was also vastly outplayed by Clyde. There is simply too large a chasm between the production of the two classes to pretend that Buffalo outdrafted (to this point) Kansas City because of some nebulous concept of “surplus value”. The Chiefs have impact rookie starters at RB, LB, and CB plus major contributions at DE and DT. Buffalo got a nice #4 WR, a rotational RB, and a Kicker. Any system that grades the latter above the former is laughable.

Allen is getting $40,000,000+, but his cap number won’t be that big for a few seasons. The salary cap is more of a suggestion than a law. There are always ways around it. I’ve discussed it in other threads, but Beane is going to have to be much stingier with his draft capital going forward. No more blowing high picks on slow RBs or 6th rounders on Ks. The draft isn’t about filling out a roster. This isn’t fantasy football. You’ve got to take players who can potentially be difference makers and then fill in the gaps with scrubs off the street, players poached from practice squads, etc. Then you’ve got to play the comp pick game. Don’t go signing some mid level guy that doesn’t move the needle if it’s going to negatively impact the comp formula. I really like what McBeane has done to this point, but this is the one glaring hole I see in their performance to this point. They still have to prove that they can pan for gold.

The Chiefs didn’t forget all the cheap shots Buffalo took in the first game. I didn’t see any dirty play other than the Jones punch, (and I’d be curious to see what precipitated that). The Breeland tackle of Diggs was physical, but he didn’t spike him into the ground. The ref should have blown the whistle as soon as Diggs was lifted off the ground, but Breeland certainly didn’t drive him to the turf. Same with the Allen sack. It’s a tough sport, and these guys were fighting for a trip to the Super Bowl.

You don’t need to look at more than that game to make a judgment. It’s glaringly obvious. You wouldn’t need a best of seven to say that Lebron James is better than me at 1 on 1 if you had just watched us play one game with your own eyes. CEH (the guy who ran for 161 yards at Buffalo) himself had as many yards from scrimmage as the entire Buffalo rookie class combined. Sneed (who was amazing from day 1, btw) had more tackles than the entire Bills class combined. He also had more INTs than the entire Bills class combined. Sneed even had more SACKS than the entire Bills class combined. Mike Danna has more sacks than the entire Bills class combined. I’m not sure why you’d care to split hairs over the difference between draft picks and UDFAs as if that distinction would matter, but Wharton also has more sacks as an UDFA than the entire Bills class combined. Hell, the Chiefs rookie class has more PASSING YARDS than the Bills class. Buffalo drafted a QB. Kansas City didn’t. I couldn’t care less about how or why a system arrives at such a ridiculously incorrect conclusion. It should be dismissed out of hand. Kansas City rookies have 8.5 sacks and 3 INTs on the season. Buffalo’s have 1 sack and 0 INTs. None of this is to say that the Bills players won’t go on to have more productive careers, but no credence can be given to the idea that they’ve been more impactful to this point. Any metric that says otherwise should be ignored. It’s not worthy of even being used as a data point. If you want to use it as some sort of barometer, it’s your right to be wrong. C’mon dude. It says Matt Milano is a vastly more productive pick than Tre White.

There was a football game played last night. Epenesa had one tackle and no other stats. Bass kicked 4 FGs and missed a PAT. Davis had 3 targets without a catch. If any other rookies played, they didn’t register on the stat sheet. Edwards-Elaire had a rushing TD. Sneed played lockdown coverage, made 5 tackles, and had a 15 yard sack. Danna and Wharton each had a tackle. Townsend had a punt and held 5 PATs and a FG. Not super interested in any metric that favors the first group.

@GunnerBill alluded to it earlier, but this league is about stars. The Matt Milanos of the world simply don’t move the needle. They’re useful pieces on rookie contracts inasmuch as they fill a spot on the cheap, but he’s projected to get well over $10,000,000 a year soon. I’ll never understand why anyone would pay that for a guy who can neutralize a Firkser level player but is helpless against someone like Kelce. Kansas City has a ton of holes on their roster, but their stars are so good that it doesn’t matter. Andy Reid and Brett Veach’s drafting strategy is pretty clear. They want athletes with elite physical skills that can’t be taught, and they trust themselves to coach them into players. You can’t teach Tyreek’s speed, Mahomes’s arm, Kelce’s athleticism, Jones’s strength, etc. You’ll never see them draft a Devin Singletary because there’s simply no upside there. He has no elite tools, and there are 20 guys on practice squads who can do what he does. The odd thing is that Josh Allen is exactly that type of player. He had elite tools and very little feel for the game. Given his trajectory, you’d think McBeane would keep looking for those types of players, but that hasn’t been the case. I liked Epenesa, but he’s pretty unimpressive physically. You see him in pads, and he just doesn’t look like an NFL DE. Moss is another total head scratcher. 2 RBs drafted in consecutive seasons with high picks and neither of them will ever scare an opposing DC in the slightest. Those are valuable picks that were just flushed down the crapper. I don’t care who my OLBs are if I’ve got Ray Lewis at MLB. I’ll take him and two water boys over three Matt Milanos. I will grant that it takes a lot of job security to draft that way, though.

And again, it’s a terrible metric. I don’t know enough about the rest of Minnesota’s draft class to say what the rest of the players have done, but Kansas City will be playing in the Super Bowl with the following rookies: Clyde Edwards-Elaire: Feature back with 1100 yards in 13 games Willie Gay Jr.: Starting LB LaJarius Sneed: Shutdown corner Mike Danna: Heavy rotational DE Tershawn Wharton: Heavy rotational DT Tommy Townsend: Punter That’s a tremendous amount of value, especially considering that they had the last pick in the draft and their third round pick opted out for COVID. Any metric that says that the Bills class of Davis, a K, and a bunch of players who could barely sniff the field provided more value is invalid, IMO. (And I say that as someone who wanted Epenesa in the draft.) I just don’t know that Beane has drafted a player other than Allen who the team can look at and say that the position is locked down for 5 years. Milano is probably the closest, but even then you’re talking about a rotational coverage linebacker. However you spin it, Beane is going to need to do better in the draft if he’s going to put a championship caliber roster around a $40,000,000+ QB.

This is a terrible metric. Buffalo is 4 spots ahead of Minnesota who wouldn’t trade Jefferson for the entire Buffalo draft class. Kansas City wouldn’t trade their 4th round pick for Buffalo’s entire draft class. The Bills’ class could still turn out to be great, but the only player who’s shown anything is Davis.

Diggs and Beasley weren’t drafted by the Bills. I’m asking what players the Bills drafted between 2017 and 2019 that have provided enough value to even justify their draft position. I count two. I don’t know if there’s another player taken during that time who would return more than maybe a 4th rounder if they were traded today.

So...not going to list any names?

Who are these players? You’ve got White and Allen who are stars and a bunch of JAGs.

This pretty much sums it up. Since Beane arrived, the Bills have added 2 difference makers in Allen and Diggs. While those are great adds, it cost them two first rounders, 2 second rounders, a fourth, a fifth, a sixth, and a sizable contract for Diggs. Outside of that, what impact players has he added? Brown and Beasley were both free agents that have worked out well, but the draft has been a wasteland. Trading away picks and paying top of the market prices for free agents gives you a short term shot in the arm (and was probably the right strategy to get the franchise out of the mud) but it isn’t sustainable, especially when Allen signs his 5 year $210,000,000 extension. I think he’ll figure it out, though. Veach’s first draft in Kansas City was a bust (though he didn’t have a first rounder due to the trade for...well...you know). Since then he’s been remarkable at finding key pieces late in the draft and off the scrap heap. Beane will need to do the same now that he won’t be drafting top 10 every year.

In theory you could run the same play every single time and trust that your guys will just somehow beat their guys. It would work if you were playing a middle school team. I wouldn’t recommend it when playing the defending Super Bowl champions, though.

I’ve said it the entire time I’ve been on this board. This team is being built the right way. McBeane has a plan, and it’s been followed beautifully. The Bills aren’t going anywhere. Get used to seeing them in the postseason.

Every time Josh audibled, Anthony Hitchens seemed to know what was coming and put the defense in the perfect coverage. Some tendencies were clearly identifiable on film.

Don’t be an a-hole.

I’m around.

Well yeah. He was absolutely wrong. His schtick is that he leans into his incorrect opinions even after he’s been shown to be totally wrong. He’s basically taking the piss out of himself by wearing his missed predictions. Five years ago, he declared Tom Brady washed up. He’s a regular on a radio show in Kansas City that isn’t sports related, but he talks sports and other things. They’ve been on his ass for years about his Brady takes and he still swears that he was right then and that he’s still right. Of course he knows he was wrong. He just digs in because it’s funny. I understand that he’s an acquired taste. I hated his show when he got his start as a local sports guy back in the day, but he really grew on me. He’s the guy who is a HUGE egomaniac but is also self aware enough to know that he’s full of ***** and can make himself the butt of jokes when his bad takes get shoved back in his face. Well yeah. You’re basically saying “Baltimore played poorly, but so did Buffalo”. That’s literally his point.

Nick Wright is honestly one of the best sports personalities in the business. His schtik is entirely tongue in cheek, but he commits to it for eternity.