Billl

Does that really matter, though? When you’ve got the opportunity to replace a solid, but not great, aging veteran who has a big contract with a late second round pick, you take that every time. That’s how you build a championship roster around a franchise QB. There are a million different ways to win championships when you’ve got a superstar under center. A good GM should always be looking for ways to get younger and cheaper without having a major drop off in performance. Morse was a perfect candidate, and Creed was sitting right there.

Where is the logic in this, though? Let’s say he’s the greatest GM in history at determining which elite QB prospect will reach his potential in the NFL. He will literally never need to utilize that skill set again as the GM of the Bills. He had an amazing draft in 2018. Since then, he’s managed 4 postseason wins in 5 seasons with an elite QB. At what point does he get judged on his recent history?

They didn’t fail because they went after positions of need. The failure was picking bad players. They needed interior line help in 2021, and they had already taken Rousseau in the first round when they took Basham. Taking Creed would have been drafting for need, but they passed on him for another DE. The aggressive rebuild I’m referring to is going to be them moving pieces to build assets for the future. That’s when they’ll need to focus on BPA. 2024 is likely to be a reset season.

That’s not really true, though. This team has been right on the cusp for 3 seasons. When you’re that close to winning your first championship, everything you do is for need. Once you’ve got one, you get to start planning for the long term. McBeane doesn’t have the luxury of that. They are all in right now. I think you’re going to see an aggressive rebuild next offseason. If they’d have won it in 2021 or 2022, they’d have done it this offseason.

Well that’s good because Myles Boykin gave him a push at the LOS on the first snap of the second half last week that send him flying onto his butt. I didn’t realize that the new defensive scheme McDermott utilizes doesn’t require CBs to tackle. Elam clearly did, though. Hopefully they got that grass stain off the seat of his white pants.

That notebook might hold up better against blockers than Elam does.

There were times last season where he looked like he had a lot of potential. The only action I’ve seen this preseason was against the Steelers, and he legitimately looked as bad as any CB I’ve ever seen. He’s one of the strangest cases I’ve ever seen.

Epenesa had 6.5 sacks, but how many of them required him actually beating a blocker as opposed to him coming free on a well-designed blitz? There’s value in being able to time a blitz properly, but it’s still more scheme than skill. It’s not like he lined up against tackles and regularly beat them.

He didn’t get beat out by some late round pick who exploded onto the scene. On Sunday, he looked like they pulled someone out of the stands and handed him a helmet. He was bad bad. On his first drive, the last drive of the first half, he gave up three completions. Then he got flagged for PI in the end zone. Then he gave up another completion for a TD. Then, on the first play in the second half, the WR barely pushes him blocking on a running play and he just falls over backwards ass over teakettle like he got run over by a truck.

Maybe the Steelers just really want to crush people during the pre-season, and they’re playing against teams who treat pre-season like pre-season.

Say what you will about their inability to find an elite QB, but their record when their starter has played is 46-28. I can't really fault a front office for losing when their starting QB goes down. Both organizations have incredible regular season records with healthy starting QBs. Both have sucked with backups (Buffalo is 1-4 when Josh is out). SF has had more success in the postseason, but not dramatically so. Ultimately, it's two different organizations who have had success in opposite areas of roster construction but they've achieved at very similar levels on the field. Football is interesting in that regard. There's a lot of different ways to skin a cat.

That’s true, but isn’t the same true of Allen? Buffalo has ranked 2nd, 1st, 16th, and 2nd the past 4 seasons in points allowed. New England ranked 7th, 2nd, 14th, and 13th Brady’s first 4 seasons.

Comparing current stats to a guy who came into the league 23 years ago is…something. Brady’s first playoffs were in 2001. 2 QBs threw for over 4,000 yards that season. 9 threw for over 20 TDs. 12 threw more that 15 INTs. In 2022, 9 QBs threw for over 4,000 yards, 14 threw over 20 TDs, and none threw more than 15 INTs. In 2001, there had been one 5,000 yard passing season in history, and it hadn’t happened in 17 years. It’s happened 14 times since then. To put it mildly, it’s not an apples to apples comparison. When Brady was at the same point in his career that Josh is in today, he had 11 TDs, 3 INTs, 2 fumbles, and was 9-0. Josh has 17 TDs, 4 INTs, 8 fumbles, and is 4-4. Both have impressive numbers, but that doesn’t mean that Josh is an equal or superior postseason QB to Brady.

I agree with almost all of this, but part of the reason Burrow hasn’t been called on to put up tons of points is that he hasn’t turned the ball over and put his defense in terrible positions. In the Dolphins playoff game, Buffalo had to score more than 31 to win. Was that bad luck for Josh, or was it his own doing? Josh threw an interception that led to an 18 yard drive by Miami ending in a FG. Then, Josh threw another interception that led to another 18 yard drive by Miami. This one resulted in a TD. Then Josh fumbled, and Miami returned it for a TD. That’s 18 points directly attributable to turnovers by Allen. Miami scored 6 times in that game. Their scoring drives in terms of yards gained were 38, 18, 18, 8, 0 (defensive score), and 75. That’s one legit drive allowed by Buffalo. Josh, IMO, is either the second or third best QB in the game. Burrow is right there with him even though they’re very different players. Josh puts up bigger numbers, but he also takes more chances. If Burrow took more chances, he’d put up bigger numbers as well. It comes down to whether the juice is worth the squeeze. So far, Burrow has an AFC championship trophy and a blowout win over the Bills, so he’s got a legit argument for being the better QB. Josh has bigger numbers with fewer elite weapons, so he’s also got a legit argument.

Wow, I typed two instead of one.

I watched him panic in OT and throw a ball blindly backwards over his head. https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/1213620109643792384 I also watched him throw a jump ball to a FB who was double covered. https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/1213625501996273665?s=20

I've been dead on with pretty much everything I've said about them. They've been a very good team that haven't been able to get over the hump the past few seasons. All off-season, I've said that their age, injuries, and lack of hits in the draft is likely to reveal itself in a big way this season. Unless I've missed something that makes my take "hilariously incongruent" with reality, the next time you're able to tell me "I told you so" will be the first.

I don't know that it cost them a Super Bowl, but his fumble against the Texans resulted in a FG for Houston in a game the Texans won in OT.

Because I have the temerity to discuss Josh's ball security issues in a threat about Josh's ball security?

You got me. I mistakenly typed 2 rushing TDs for Burrow. That completely invalidates the fact that Allen has 8 fumbles in 8 playoff games compared to zero for Burrow in 7 games. Feel better?

Feel free to elaborate. Josh ran for TDs against the Texans and Bengals. He fumbled twice against the Texans, one each against the Colts, Ravens, and Chiefs, and three times against the Dolphins. Burrow ran for a TD against the Ravens and has not fumbled.

Josh Allen: 2 rushing TDs, 8 fumbles in 8 playoff games Joe Burrow: 2 rushing TDs, 0 fumbles in 7 playoff games

Three INTs and three fumbles in two playoff games does, though.

No way. Sacks are just too hard to get these days. The quick passing game barely existed back then.

I don’t think that’s true. He’s a great player, but he’s still got a few holes in his swing. If the right QB coach comes along and fixes them, he could actually be even better…like when Jordan figured out the fade-away was free money.