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Everything posted by Billl
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The much much much too early 2024 expectations thread.
Billl replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
Morse is an average Center at this point in his career. That’s easily replaceable. I think a lot of Bills fans are going to be surprised by how much faster the team looks week 1 next season simply by virtue of them being younger. Hyde, Poyer, White, Miller, Floyd, Jones You simply can’t have that many players out there who are lacking in athleticism and hope to keep up with elite offenses in the playoffs. You can teach young players how to be better. You can’t teach old players to be faster. -
The much much much too early 2024 expectations thread.
Billl replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
I don’t think the Bills have a worse roster today than they did yesterday. Literally none of the players they cut are difference makers at this point in their careers. Beane let the roster, the defense in particular, get old and slow. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the defense isn’t just as good by the end of next season as it was at the end of this past season. There are a lot of ways to succeed in this league, but being old and slow on defense isn’t one of them. -
Justin Simmons released (now visiting N'awlins)
Billl replied to Dablitzkrieg's topic in The Stadium Wall
He didn't play that week. -
I haven't seen how it's written, but the idea that he would isn't silly. It would benefit the Bills without negatively impacting Miller.
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It's not silly, though. The only way Von would agree to this is if he's essentially guaranteed that it won't cost him anything that he was already owed. The bonus money can be kicked to 2025 as long as it involves him reaching a benchmark that he wouldn't have hit in 2023. It's a bonus for accounting purposes only. Ed's contract was written under entirely different circumstances. His bonuses are new money that he wasn't already owed. Von's isn't an incentive to perform. If it were, he wouldn't have agreed to the new terms. It's nothing more than a way to push money from 2024 to 2025. People are overthinking this.
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That’s a wrap.
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Jokes aside, my explanation was accurate. Performance incentives are categorized as either likely to be earned (LTBE) or not likely to be earned (NLTBE), with the categorization determined by looking at the performance of the player in the prior season. If a player reached a performance threshold in the prior year, the incentive is considered LTBE and counts against the cap. If a player did not reach the performance threshold in the prior year, it is categorized as NLTBE and will not count against the cap. If a LTBE incentive is not reached, the team gets cap credit the following year.
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If they are considered “likely to be reached” incentives, they count towards the current year. “Unlikely to be reached” incentives count towards the following season if they are reached. Incentives are considered likely to be reached if the player would have earned it the previous season. In Von’s case, an example of “likely to be reached” would be something like putting his shoes on the correct feet or pooping in the potty.
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The way that provision works, it could be as simple as recording 5 combined tackles in 2024. If it’s a number he didn’t reach the previous season, it qualifies. It’s a way to push money to next year without adding additional years.
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Rasul Douglas contract restructure... saves $2.5 mill
Billl replied to Dablitzkrieg's topic in The Stadium Wall
As I understand it (and that’s a massive disclaimer), the whole point of void years is that they are real years contractually, but both parties have the right to opt out of them and they’re written such that there is effectively a 100% chance that one of the parties will exercise that option. For example, Rasul is (was) allowed to agree to play for $850,000 a year in 2025 through 2027 as long as both he and the Bills agree to it. There is just nothing that binds either side to adhere to the deal. -
Rasul Douglas contract restructure... saves $2.5 mill
Billl replied to Dablitzkrieg's topic in The Stadium Wall
That's the beauty of accounting. Technically, it's not his last year in the deal. He has "4" years left. -
What FA Signings Have Directly Lead to SB Wins?
Billl replied to st pete gogolak's topic in The Stadium Wall
Cool, so we're back to the idea that players only put a team over the top to win a championship if it's done in year one. (But that only counts if they're signed as free agents. If they're drafted, they can put a team over the top years down the road because reasons. Undrafted free agents are a little murky, so signing Kurt Warner may or may not have directly contributed to the Rams winning a Superbowl. Then there are guys like John Elway, Eli Manning, and Jim Kelly where is really hard to say whether or not they directly helped their teams advance to and/or win Superbowls). -
Rasul Douglas contract restructure... saves $2.5 mill
Billl replied to Dablitzkrieg's topic in The Stadium Wall
He's already got 3 void years on his contract. They're likely just converting as much of his base salary to a bonus as possible and spreading that amount over 4 years instead of just 2024. -
What FA Signings Have Directly Lead to SB Wins?
Billl replied to st pete gogolak's topic in The Stadium Wall
WTF are you talking about? The thread starter literally used Reggie White as an example of someone who meets the definition in the initial post. -
What FA Signings Have Directly Lead to SB Wins?
Billl replied to st pete gogolak's topic in The Stadium Wall
You've said that free agents don't directly lead to Superbowl wins if they don't win the Superbowl the following year. By that logic, draft picks don't directly contribute to Superbowl wins unless they do it their rookie year. Reggie White had 3 sacks in the Packers Superbowl win over the Patriots, but you say that his signing doesn't count as directly leading to the win because it was his fourth year on the team. Well Josh has been on the Bills for 6 seasons. If the Bills win a Superbowl next year, your own qualifiers would dictate that drafting Josh wouldn't have directly led to the win because it would be his sixth year on the team. It's a stupid argument to only count their first year with the team, but you're the one making it. Nobody else is. -
What FA Signings Have Directly Lead to SB Wins?
Billl replied to st pete gogolak's topic in The Stadium Wall
So if the Bills win a Superbowl, drafting Josh wouldn't qualify as directly leading to a Superbowl win either, I guess. -
What FA Signings Have Directly Lead to SB Wins?
Billl replied to st pete gogolak's topic in The Stadium Wall
So if Buffalo wins Superbowl LVX and Von has 3 sacks in the game, his signing wouldn't qualify as directly leading to a Superbowl win? -
That makes sense. I should have realized that given that I watched Buffalo jam it down the Chiefs' throat in the first half of the divisional round using an extra lineman.
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What's the story with this guy? Just saw that he played offensive snaps in 15 regular season games and both postseason games but never more than 37% of them. Why was there a rotation at Guard? I've never heard of that.
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What FA Signings Have Directly Lead to SB Wins?
Billl replied to st pete gogolak's topic in The Stadium Wall
Reggie White had 3 sacks in their Superbowl win. I'd say that qualifies. -
What FA Signings Have Directly Lead to SB Wins?
Billl replied to st pete gogolak's topic in The Stadium Wall
Mitchell Schwartz, Tyranny Matthieu, and Sammy Watkins all played huge roles for the Chiefs' 2019 win. -
What do you think the going rate is for backup centers? I think they did well to get anything more than a seventh rounder for him.
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That's true as well. That said, this OT class is very similar to the one when Brown was traded in that there were a few studs at the very top and then a ton of guys who were better fits at RT than LT. Time being a flat circle and all, Kansas City is once again trying to solve for a LT, and there doesn't seem to be a great option that will be sitting there at the end of the first round.
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Seems reasonable to me. I thought Nabors going ahead of Harrison was interesting, though.
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Not a chance he brings back that much in a trade. When the Ravens Orlando Brown Jr., he was thought of similarly to what Dawkins is today. Brown was coming off consecutive pro bowl selections, but he was 5 years younger than Dawkins is currently and was still playing under a third round rookie contract paying him $3.4 million his first year with Kansas City. The Ravens received the trade equivalent of pick 45 for him (Chiefs traded a first, third, and fourth for Brown, a second, and a sixth). Dawkins will be 30 in April and has a $16.6 million cap hit next year which is the final of his current deal. You're looking at probably a late third at best in compensation. You only trade him if you're planning on a major rebuild, and OBD has given no indication that they intend to go that route Not a chance he brings back that much in a trade. When the Ravens Orlando Brown Jr., he was thought of similarly to what Dawkins is today. Brown was coming off consecutive pro bowl selections, but he was 5 years younger than Dawkins is currently and was still playing under a third round rookie contract paying him $3.4 million his first year with Kansas City. The Ravens received the trade equivalent of pick 45 for him (Chiefs traded a first, third, and fourth for Brown, a second, and a sixth). Dawkins will be 30 in April and has a $16.6 million cap hit next year which is the final of his current deal. You're looking at probably a late third at best in compensation. You only trade him if you're planning on a major rebuild, and OBD has given no indication that they intend to go that route