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Yeah, look at all those calls Kansas City got.

So what would Mahomes have to do in order to surpass Allen in your opinion? Win an MVP (individual regular season award)? He did that in his first year as a starter. Win a Super Bowl (team achievement)? He did that in his second season. Win a Super Bowl MVP (individual award)? He did that in his second season. Win a second MVP? He did that in his fifth season. Win a second Super Bowl? He did that in his fifth season. Win a second Super Bowl MVP? He did that in his fifth season. Win a third Super Bowl? He did that in his sixth season. Win a third Super Bowl MVP? He did that in his sixth season. How many individual accomplishments during the regular season and the post season does he need to add to all of his regular season team accomplishments and postseason team accomplishments in order to equal whatever it is you think Allen has achieved in terms of individual and team success? Seriously, set the bar. Mahomes has 2 regular season MVPs, 3 Super Bowl MVPs, and 3 rings. Josh has 0, 0, and 0. What would Patrick need to do in order to change your mind. It seems to me that the only thing would be to swap the arrowhead on his helmet for a bison.

“Gifted”. Butker missed two kicks in the 0:13 game. It didn’t matter Tyreek dropped a perfect deep pass on the first drive of the game and then Hardman fumbled a punt inside his own 5 yard line in the AFFCG against the Bills. It didn’t matter. Hardman fumbled through the end zone from the 1 yard line in last year’s divisional. It didn’t matter. You’re proving my point that Josh has had just as much luck, good and bad, as Mahomes. Why don’t you mention all of the dropped passes and punts against the Texans in 2019 that led to a 24-0 deficit a week after Josh and the Bills went from leading 16-0 to losing 22-19? Drops happen. Fumbles happen. Missed kicks happen. You’re still allowed to win games even when everything doesn’t go perfectly.

Good post. Not sure I agree that the Dolphins have a best case scenario of 13 wins while the Ravens’ is only 12, but it’s a very fair analysis overall.

Your “evidence” consists of only listing things that Mahomes has going for him and things that Allen has going against him. If Mahomes hadn’t come back in the 0:13 game and driven down the field for a game winning TD in OT, people could talk about how he left the field with the lead and his defense lost the game in spite of his multiple come from behind drives in the 4th quarter. Nobody talks about that because he pulled off the greatest comeback in NFL history. If Mahomes had lost to the Bengals in the 2022 playoffs, people could talk about how he played on one leg and was throwing passes to special teams players because all of his WRs were injured. Nobody talks about that because he still won and went on to win the Super Bowl. If Mahomes had lost to the Bills last year, people could talk about how Hardman fumbled through the end zone in the 4th quarter and cost them the game. It doesn’t matter because the Bills led 24-20 at the end of the 3rd quarter, had 3 possessions in the 4th quarter, and couldn’t score. Andy Reid didn’t make Josh miss that throw to Shakir, the playoff drought didn’t hold the Bills to 10 points against the Bengals, and Kelvin Benjamin had nothing to do with Mahomes scoring 38 points over a 6 possession span in the 2020 AFCCG. When you win, they’re obstacles. When you lose, they’re excuses.

I just watched a different angle of that play, and it didn’t actually go through Sauce’s hands. It was just out of his reach, just an absolute piss rod of a throw. There’s no more than a handful of QBs in the league who can make that throw at all and zero who can make it often enough for it to be considered a route won by the WR. Shakir gets credit for the run afterwards, but he gets about 1% of the credit for the completion. The rest goes to Josh for hitting a throw with a ridiculously high degree of difficulty.

I’m not ignoring anything. Your entire plan is to offer a contract that he’s not going to accept. I mean sure, maybe he’s had so many concussions that he’s brain dead enough to accept a proposal that would get his agent black-balled…I won’t ignore the .000001% chance that he agrees to your deal and you win GMOTY for your ability to swindle your QB into accepting a terrible deal. Your turn. What do you do if, for whatever reason, Tua decides to make a smart financial decision and refuses your offer? You trotting Mike White out there?

It absolutely counts. I credited him for the catch and the RAC. My point is that’s not an example of a WR beating a #1 CB. It was an example of Josh throwing an absolute laser through a keyhole. The same thing happened multiple times in the divisional game. They’re great plays when you only see your team’s highlights. The problem is all the times they wind up on the other team’s highlight reels. Josh is one of a very small number of QBs with the talent to jam that ball in there, but even then it’s a low percentage play. A #1 WR’s job is to make the QB’s life easier by getting open and giving him a reasonable window so that he doesn’t have to make a HOF level throw.

I understand your point. It’s not particularly complex. There is simply zero chance that Tua signs that deal, so what is your plan B? Tua will have a job in 2025 if he sits out in 2024. You (the Dolphins GM) will not. That team is built to win now. They aren’t in a position to reset and try again 4 years from now with a young QB they draft in 2025 or 2026. You’re staring down the barrel of signing Ryan Tannehill or trading a pick to the Chiefs for Carson Wentz and hitching your career to their ability to get you to the playoffs.

Shakir was absolutely blanketed, and the ball went right through Sauce’s hands. Credit to Shakir for catching and housing it, but that’s a pick more often than a completion.

Can you point to any examples of a GM taking this route and winning? This does happen every year, and it “gets worked out” when the GM pays the QB. The closest a GM has ever come to taking your approach and sticking to his guns was Cousins in Washington. How’d that end for Bruce Allen?

So your plan is to be the first GM ever to “win” in a situation like this. That doesn’t sound like much of a plan to me. Last year around this time, people were calling Lamar stupid. Now he’s the reigning MVP with a bank account to match. What Josh and Patrick make doesn’t matter because they aren’t available. Your choice is to pay Tua a market contract or play some scrub and lose your job if the team sucks. Meanwhile, there will be GMs lined up to sign Tua. He’s got all the leverage.

So what do you do when Tua refuses to sign it?

That’s true, but $24 million is nearly double $13 million which is what Samuel’s guarantee was.

What makes you think that Samuel who signed a 3 year, $24 million contract is an improvement over Davis who signed a 3 year, $39 million contract? In three more season played, Samuel has 650 more yards and 5 fewer TDs than Gabe. I can see how he could be a better value at their respective price tags, but Davis got 63% more on the open market with nearly double the guaranteed money.

Chiefs SF Ravens (Lions, Packers, Bengals, Texans) (Bills, Cowboys, Eagles, Browns) I voted 5-8. Somewhere in the 8-11 range seems about right.

What’s different in the playoffs with Cousins on the team versus Josh? They still win against the Ravens in 2020, NE in 2021, Miami in 2022, and Pittsburgh in 2023. They still lose to Cincinnati and Kansas City each time. The only games that might have flipped is if Buffalo beats the Texans with Cousins in 2019 and/or loses to the Colts in 2020.

Maybe they can win the I’m Super, Thanks for Asking Bowl.

Or a Super Bowl ring.

Diggs’s production leaped with Allen because his targets went from 94 to 166. Allen’s obviously a much better QB than Cousins, but Stef also saw 80% more targets.

You’re not wrong, but what does it mean in terms of evaluating his decision as a GM? Let’s assume that there was a pool of players Beane had graded identically. He then traded back 4 spots and allowed KC, SF, Dallas, and Baltimore to pick from that pool first. Those are some of the best front offices in the business, and KC clearly had a strong opinion that one of those players stood out amongst the rest. Settling for whomever those teams didn’t want doesn’t seem like the best way to get the top player from that pool.

For those who think Dallas should let him walk, where would you rank him amongst this list of every QB drafted in the past 5 seasons who has been even remotely viable: Kyler Murray Daniel Jones Drew Lock Gardner Minshew Joe Burrow Justin Herbert Tua Jalen Hurts Jordan Love Trevor Lawrence Zach Wilson Mac Jones Justin Fields Brock Purdy Kenny Pickett Sam Howell Desmond Ritter Bryce Young CJ Stroud Will Levis Anthony Richardson The only one I would say is definitively better is Burrow, and he’s constantly injured. Stroud looks like a stud, and Love might be soon. I think Dak is just as good as Lawrence, Tua, Purdy, and Hurts. So you can sign him to a huge deal or you can hope to find a QB in the draft even though half the drafts won’t have one as good as him, and half of those who are will be gone before you’re ever on the clock.

Is it that time again? One of my favorite traditions here is watching everyone pretend that a star QB is crazy to ask for a huge contract that he will obviously never get only to be shocked when he gets it.

The Chiefs have agreed to forfeit every game he’s ever played in.

That’s going to be appointment television. Texans are -1.5 currently.