Billl

I just looked at every play called on first down and the result. This includes positive or negative penalties. There were 26 plays run on first down. 16 passing plays netting 136 yards (8.5 ypp). This includes a 35 yard PI penalty. 10 running plays netting 19 yards (1.9 ypp). This includes two 10 yard holding penalties. To put the running struggles on first down into context, here is the down and distance of every play following a first down run (in order). Second and 8 Second and 1 First and 10 Second and 8 Second and 9 Second and 6 First and 20 Second and 14 Second and 7 First and 20 In other words, the last 7 times they called running plays on first down they found themselves behind the sticks creating obvious passing downs on the following plays. There were a grand total of two successful running plays on first down out of 10 tries. The Browns stacked the box and decided to make JA beat them. He couldn't do it.

It's impressive that Mahomes will take a big step forward after his second season as a starter. He's already won an MVP in his first season as a starter and is in the mix to win another in his second season.

What is your deal? Are you really trying to pretend that it's disingenuous of me to compare stats from games he started? You got me, I guess. Congratulations. You've blown the lid off the grand conspiracy to make people think that a QB who was ranked 24th last year versus 31st this year hasn't improved in any material way. It couldn't be that I've simply got a different opinion. Extra credit for sniffing out that poster who was clearly just a Colorado State plant sent to troll Bills fans. That's just quality message board detective work right there.

I only used the yardage starts from games he started. His yards per game are identical year over year. I also listed out his passing and rushing TDs. You've shown that the difference between the two on a per game basis are essentially identical. Fumbles speak to ball security, full stop. Allen's defenders want to treat it as Schrodinger's fumble...as if it's only poor ball security if the other team recovers. That's not the case. He leads the league in fumbles since he was drafted. There's no conspiracy to discredit Allen as a QB. The fact of the matter is that he's essentially the same player he was last year. He's improved a little in some areas. He's regressed a little in others. He's shown that he's good enough to beat bad football teams when his defense plays well. He was 24th in QBR last year, and he's 31st this year (immediately behind Mayfield, Dalton, Rudolph, Darnold, and Trubisky and ahead of only Mariota). The only way to say that he's improved materially is to cite the "eye test" which is just a way of saying that it's true just because you want it to be true. When I use the same test, I see a guy who has immense physical gifts but who is slow through his progressions, lacks anticipation, and has inconsistent accuracy. I think he will get better, and he belongs in the league, but he's done nothing to show me he's going to be special.

The yards per have stat includes his passing yards plus rushing yards. You seem to be suggesting that the fact that his teammates have recovered the majority of his fumbles means that he's improved his ball security. That's a strange position to take. Halfway through the season, he's put it on the ground 10 times. 12 led the league last year, and Josh is on pace for 20. I didn't vote in the poll and can see progress he's made in some areas and regression in others. The fact that this poll is so lopsided is more a function of the site on which it's posted than Allen's actual play. His performance hasn't changed materially from last season either direction. Baker and Darnold have regressed. Jackson has improved. Rosen, and Allen are about the same as they were last season. The only people tasting this as some sort of hot take are those looking at things with their hearts rather than their heads.

2018 stats: 237 yards per game, 10 TD passes, 12 INTs, 8 rushing TDs, 8 fumbles 2019 stats: 237 yards per have, 10 TD passes, 7 INTs, 4 rushing TDs, 10 fumbles.

Trubisky had the same knock last year. His defenders said that it didn't matter that his numbers were poor and pointed to his 11-3 record as evidence that he was progressing into a franchise QB despite the fact that the record was much more a function of having the NFL's best defense than anything Mitch was doing. Suddenly Chicago's defense is only good but not dominant, and Trubisky's defenders have all but disappeared.

His passing yards have decreased in every single game this year versus his previous game with only one exception (and that exception is because his numbers against the Patriots were exceptionally low). Allen is an unusual case in that the eye test tells you that he should be good, but the numbers never support that. This was the case for him in Junior college, at Wyoming, and still is in Buffalo. He's like the anti Kirk Cousins.