Billl

He got the ball 16 times in the first half for 63 yards. 13 was on one play, so he gained 50 yards on the other 15 runs and never came close to breaking one. They ran 54 total plays in the game. Once you fall behind by multiple scores in the second half, grinding out 3-4 yards per play doesn’t make much sense. Couple that with the fact that KC had just marched down the field on a 13 play drive that ran out the entire second half of the third quarter and spilled into the fourth. That drive, KC only faced two third downs, and they were 3rd and 1 and 3rd and 2. When the heavily favored opponent is moving the ball at will on offense, bottling up the run on defense, and protecting a two score lead in the fourth quarter, you don’t have the luxury of playing three yards and a cloud of dust football as the clock ticks down on your season. That’s the thing about passing teams versus running teams. Both work when things go according to script. Passing teams can keep passing when they fall behind. Running teams can’t.

Watkins led the Chiefs in postseason receiving yards by 45 last year with 176. He leads by 26 this year with 190 and counting. Hope in one hand, ***** in the other...

Shenault looks like a monster when he can dominate inferior players with his athleticism, but he won't be able to play bully ball in the league. His technique is poor off the line, and his route running is mediocre at best. His upside is incredible, but he's extremely raw.

If there’s one thing you can’t have on your team, it’s a guy without heart or competitive fire hauling in 60 yard touchdowns to put a trip to the Super Bowl on ice. No thank you.

He’s got 366 receiving yards in the postseason so far the last 2 seasons. You don’t think that would have made a difference in an overtime loss?

Who is that? Singletary had 19 touches when you include his season high 6 receptions. He averaged just under 14 per game on the season.

Dunn had over 2,000 yards rushing and 800 yards receiving in his first two seasons. (He’s directly behind OJ Simpson and Shady McCoy on the career rushing list and has another 4,000 yards receiving.) How is Singletary already better than that? Evidently the team has a hybrid of Russell Wilson and Pat Mahomes at QB and a first ballot HOFer at RB. Not sure how 22 teams scored more points.

This entire conversation is silly. The Seahawks gave Matt Flynn a huge contract to be their starter. Russell Wilson, despite being a third round pick, balled out so hard that he beat out Flynn in training camp, won Rookie of the Year, and Flynn threw a total of 9 passes all year in mop up duty. He wasn’t even under consideration to be anything more than a backup coming into camp, but he was so good that they forced Carroll to start him instead of their prized free agent QB. By the end of his second season, he was widely considered to be an elite QB. There were plenty of people who didn’t think he was going to amount to anything in the league due to his height, but two years into his career, the doubters had seen the truth. There was simply no denying his productivity. Allen didn’t do any of those things. He became the starter after Nathan Peterman walked out to midfield, dropped his pants, and pinched fresh biscuits all over the field. He then proceeded to do pretty much what most people thought he would do. He made some electric plays with his athleticism but missed way too many throws and made too many poor decisions. A year layer, he’s cleaned up some of these issues, but he’s still got a long, long way to go. Now he may go on to greatness, but his career arc to this point doesn’t even bear a passing resemblance to Wilson’s. If he does become great, he’s going to be the exception to the rule that people point to 20 years from now when trying to convince themselves that their underperforming young QB is about to bust out instead of just bust. They’ll talk about him the way Allen’s defenders point to Drew Brees. They won’t compare that young QB to EJ Manuel or Geno Smith or Mitch Trubisky even though that’s what QBs with bottom tier QBRs typically become. They’ll twist the numbers. They’ll say things like “completion percentage isn’t indicative of accuracy” and “accuracy and precision are different things” and “he’s tied for 7th most third down conversions in home games played on cloudy days” and all that noise. They’ll hope that he defies all odds just like Josh Allen did way back when, but the truth is that the QB 20 years from now who spends his first two seasons at the bottom of nearly every statistical category probably just isn’t ever going to be great.

QBR agrees with you.

Give or take a spot or two, yeah. Sometimes he plays better. Other times he's worse. Here is a test. Rank these QBs from best to worst based on their 2019 regular seasons in your eyes. Carson Wentz Derek Carr Pat Mahomes Baker Mayfield Jared Goff

You need to compare casts to figure out which of those groups of QBs is better?

So it's just a bad stat when referencing Josh Allen? Because the top five this year were: Lamar Jackson Patrick Mahomes Drew Brees Dak Prescott Russell Wilson That might not be perfect, but it looks pretty close from where I'm sitting. The bottom 5 are: Mason Rudolph Kyle Allen Mitch Trubisky Andy Dalton Gardner Minshew Want to argue that those guys don't belong at the bottom? Well immediately ahead of them are Darnold and Allen. Put it another way. I'll list Josh Alen's QBR/rating from two games this year. One will be the first Patriots game. The other will be from the Cowboys game. If people can't figure out which is which, I'll agree that it's a flawed metric. 82.5/120.7 vs. 12.5/24.0 Which do you suppose was which?

The Bengals had the best returner according to the chart. Denver's stats are inflated by cherry picking the times he returned it. Cincinnati averaged about half a yard fewer but had twice as many returns. Every one that didn't get returned started at the 25.

He went from 32rd in QB rating (25th in QBR) in 2018 to 24th in QB rating (25th in QBR) in 2019. That's an improvement sort of. For comparison, Wilson was 4th/3rd as a rookie and 7th/7th as a sophomore. For more context, Matt Cassel was 24th in rating and 25th in QBR Wilson's second season. The top 30 was rounded out by Kellen Clemens, Case Keenum, Christian Ponder, EJ Manuel, and Jason Campbell. Not sure any of those guys' careers would win a Russell Wilson look alike contest.

Cole Beasley caught 75% of his 87 targets in 2018. He caught 63% of his 106 targets in 2019. Same guy. What changed?

Players who suck and have bad attitudes: Stephon Gilmore Shady McCoy Sammy Watkins Marshawn Lynch Players who are awesome and have great attitudes despite what the results in high school, junior college, college, and the NFL say because his coaches and teammates always hold him back so it’s totally not his fault: Josh Allen Player who really isn’t that good and only looks good because his receivers make him look good: Pat Mahomes Player who simultaneously the Bills would never want because he only looks good because he has a great QB throwing him dimes but also makes his mediocre QB look good by being a weapon that Josh Allen doesn’t have thus giving his mediocre QB an unfair advantage: Sammy Watkins again

You spelled Josh Allen wrong.

I watched the condensed replay today. Watkins was targeted twice and had two catches for 76 yards. Interestingly enough, the Texans jumped offside twice in that game. Both times, Mahomes threw it deep to him. When Pat had a free play, Watkins was his guy to target.

Sammy had 76 receiving yards yesterday. In the last two Bills playoff games, the leading WRs from each game combined for 73 yards. Good thing Josh didn't have a guy who runs a 4.4, gets separation, can outjump every corner in the league, and is a YAC machine when he faced the Texans in the playoffs last week.

Yeah. That bum only has 252 receiving yards and counting in the postseason since signing that big free agent contract.

He gets way too much crap around here. There are plenty of first round picks who are total busts. Sammy is still only 26 years old and has 4200 yards and 31 TDs. He could easily end up with 10,000 career yards which would be top 50 all time.

Nope. Hasn't played in a month.

Have you ever noticed that everything you say is wrong?

Henry is going to have roughly 400 carries this season. That type of workload has been a career killer for RBs historically.

It’s a very apt comparison. This team will be as good as Allen next year. If he takes the next step, the Bills should win the East by 2 games. If he continues to wallow at the bottom of the league with the Mitch Trubiskys and Gardner Minshews, then it won’t matter how good the rest of the roster is.