Billl

My guess would be Mahomes. If so, it’s safe to assume that he overcame them all pretty much immediately (other than his tendency to sail the deep ball on occasion).

I was looking for his pre draft scouting reports due to all the “he’s so raw” comments around here. I thought the analysis was interesting because every word of it is true today. He’s literally been the starter for two years and has a career completion percentage of 56%. Two year starter: True 56% completion: True Scattershot passer: True Great velocity but needs a better change up: True Tends to miss (sometimes badly) on check downs and screens: True Struggles with pressure, lacks proper timing, won’t take the easy yards: True, true, true

Are you talking about the same guy? He has a very limited route tree, doesn’t run them particularly well, and he has poor technique coming off the line. He’s a physical freak, but well rounded he ain’t.

Here’s an evaluation of him I came across this morning. I think it’s pretty accurate. I’m curious if even his biggest apologists would disagree. Drops and lack of playmaking talent don’t account fully for his 56-percent completions in two seasons of starting. Way too scattershot a passer right now. Touch throws are very inconsistent. Velocity is great, but he needs to develop a better changeup to drop passes into the bucket. Will miss — sometimes badly — on higher-percentage checkdowns and screens. Forgets to reset his feet when he has time to do so. Has a long way to go vs. pressure — gets skittish at times and doesn’t operate all that well with a dirty pocket. Overreacts to the first sign of pressure and bails out. Lacks proper sense of timing and needs to speed up his drops. Won’t always take the easy yards defenses will give him. Doesn’t consistently climb the pocket when the edges are collapsing. Comes off his first read too fast when plays don’t develop instantaneously.

What is with the “Josh was the most raw QB in decades” narrative? Unless “raw” just means that he was ineffective in college, it’s BS. You know who was raw? Lamar Jackson was raw. He just completed an MVP season, and people are still calling him a RB. Ryan Tannehill was raw. He was a WR until his Junior year of college. Pat Mahomes was raw coming out of the Air Raid at Texas Tech. Allen was simply a QB who didn’t put up numbers despite playing in the same system as Carson Wentz.

Mahomes’s first ever game was on the road against the Broncos. He went 22/35 for 284 yards in 3 quarters. That’s more than any game in Allen’s career. Here are all the players who caught passes. Albert Wilson Demetrius Harris Demarcus Robinson Anthony Sherman Jehu Chesson Akeem Hunt (not to be confused with Kareem Hunt) He wouldn’t have thrown 50 TDs, but he would have still had an MVP caliber season with the Bills receivers.

The reality is that every question will be answered this time next year. As it currently stands, the Bills have the best roster in the East by a comfortable margin. If he’s legit, the division runs through Buffalo for the next few years.

So Josh Allen’s new nickname should be Sex Panther. 58.8% of the time he make the throw every time.

Watson, Mahomes, and Jackson in their entire careers combined: 1

I put my numbers into context, and they coincided perfectly with the MVP voting the past two seasons. Your turn. Hit us with the context that shows that “completions per air yards completion” is a more useful stat than QBR when evaluating QB play.

So if we just goose his numbers slightly, you can pretend that he meets the bare minimum level of competence. “Hey dad. Yeah I failed my test, but good news. If you take just 4 questions that I got wrong and pretend I got them right, I would have earned the lowest possible D minus.” He was dead last in completion percentage in 2018. He was dead last in 2019. The good news is that 33 QBs qualified in 2018 while only 32 qualified in 2019, so he moved up from 33rd to 32nd.

That’s certainly food for thought. Why don’t you show me the top two or three in each of those categories for the past two years, and we’ll see if those are more indicative of top tier QB play that QBR, QB rating, YPA, completion percentage, and PPG. I know that when I’m trying to figure out what’s what, top 8 in “completed air yards per completion” isn’t the first thing I check, but maybe it should be.

So you're advocating for a multivatiable analysis (something that is inherently imperfect) and then rejecting use of said analysis because it isn't perfect. Every reasonable measure of performance shows the same thing. QBR: He's not very good QB rating: He's not very good Completion percentage: He's not very good PPG: He's not very good YPA: He's not very good Now maybe you're right and QBR is some terribly flawed metric. It seems like an odd coincidence that the top 2 in 2018 were Mahomes and Brees and that these two also finished as the top two in the MVP vote. It seems like an even bigger coincidence that the top two this year are Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, the presumptive MVP and the consensus best player in football. Allen, on the other hand is right next to Minshew and Case Keenum, both of whom would be considered, shall we say, long shots to win the MVP. I'm going to go ahead and say that the guy who is 25th in QBR, 25th in QB rating, 30th in yards per game, 26th in yards per attempt, and dead last for the second straight season in completion percentage just isn't a great QB. That's just one man's opinion, though. You're free to disagree with me and every available statistical analysis on the subject.

OK boomer, here you go. https://lmgtfy.com/?q=qbr+formula

Yes. And metrics like QB rating take these variables into account. Turns out he's about the 25th best QB in the league by that analysis as well.

The more I look at this, the worse the "60% completion percentage doesn't matter" crowd looks. The Bills were 9-0 when completing 60% and 1-5 when they didn't. The one win was against Pittsburgh when Duck Hodges threw 4 picks, the Steelers fumbled 4 times, and the defense held the Steelers to 229 total yards. Even with all that, it still took a fourth quarter comeback to win.

Points scored when the Bills complete 60%: 23.5 per game. When they don't: 15.4

The Bills were 9-1 in games when completing at least 60% of the pass attempts. They were 0-5 in the others.

It wasn't a back shoulder throw. It was underthrown. There's a difference. Even the team site calls the catch "incredibly tough".

None of those throws went 40 yards past the line. Beasley's was 25 yards. Knox's was 17. Brown's was 22 against Miami and nearly 40 against Pittsburg, but it was a poorly underthrown ball that Brown made a great play on.

Brees isn't A classic example. He's THE example. Who are these many others?

Best chance for a home game is against Kansas City, as Mahomes is replacing TB as the face of the league. If the Chargers sign Brady, that's another possibility. Seattle with Russell Wilson would be the next most likely. If both teams are good and Darnold is playing really well, the Jets are a possibility. There really isn't a lot of star power on the home schedule other than that.

Dropped passes is a meaningless stat anyway. 23 players dropped 7 or more on the season. Julian Edelman led league with 13. Others with 7+ include Deebo Samuel, Travis Kelce, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Allen Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Davanta Adams, DK Metcalf, and Todd Gurley. They aren't meaningless in terms of winning games, but they are statistically irrelevant.

I wonder how many receivers in this draft will rack up 2500 yards and 17 TDs by age 23 like Sammy did in Buffalo or 4300 yards and 31 TDs by age 26 like he has in his career to date. If McBeane can identify those guys, he can successfully avoid them.

Brees is the exception to every rule, and even he completed over 60% in college. If Josh turns into a franchise QB, 20 years from now fans of underperforming QBs will point to him to show that their guy is also going to turn out great. 98% of the time they will be wrong.