Billl

The Texans led the Chiefs at one point in the playoffs, too. That game was still a blowout. You lose by 18 in the NFL, that qualifies as a beating.

So name another team that has a better track record of drafting QBs outside the first round than that. Cassel won 11 games with NE and took the Chiefs to the playoffs. Jimmy went to the Super Bowl, and Brissett was the starting QB for the Colts last season throwing for 3,000 yards, 18 TDs and 6 INTs while completing 61% of his passes. Those numbers should look pretty familiar.

Since drafting Brady, they’ve had Matt Cassel, Jacoby Brissett, and Jimmy G. They have literally the best track record of finding QBs in later rounds than any team by a mile.

As a Chiefs fan, I completely disagree. I couldn’t have picked a worse scenario. I knew that game would be TNF. It just seemed inevitable. That one has ‘Buffalo’s coming out party’ written all over it. I saw that game as a coin flip before the schedule came out. With it being Thursday night, I think Buffalo either wins convincingly (most likely) or totally melts down and gets torched.

Bills straight up against KC on Thursday night.

How? I just rewatched it, and there were two big penalties. Both were OPI against the Patriots. The first took away a 40 yard TD. The second took away a 20 yard gain on third down that wound up ending the drive. The other close call was a third down play where it looked like NE got a first down, but they reviewed and said he was short. Not saying they were bad calls, but every 50/50call went Buffalo’s way. Two players killed the Bills in that game. Rex Burkhead and Josh Allen.

Bruce, Andre, OJ, Jimbo

That’s not even a playoff team.

I’m not saying you’re wrong. (I wasn’t trying to “talk down” to you though I see how it came across that way so sorry about that.) I’m well aware of the fact that anyone’s picks are as good as mine. My initial reaction when the lines were posted was to jump on the Titans. That was actually the one that jumped out at me. I have learned to bet the other way when that happens. My guess is that the smaller bets come in huge on Tennessee and the big money goes Denver. There are times like this when it seems like Vegas is begging for action on one side. This is one of those times, so I’ll fade it. I’d be curious to hear any strategies you use. Some of my faves: Don't bet on games I’m emotionally invested in. For me, that means the Chiefs. I’ll play point totals, but not money line or spreads. I love the home team in East coast early games when the road team is traveling 2+ time zones. That’s more common in college football. When the O/U is unusually high, take the over and vice versa. That’s more of a CBB thing, but it still works in the NFL. NFL week 2 is the best week of the year. Bet the opposite of whatever the teams did week 1. If a team that won big plays a team that got blown out, take the points. I also like to closely follow one or two less trendy teams that I have no attachment to and get a feel for them. Never got enough of a feel for the Bills to put action on them in any given week last year. They just varied too much from week to week. I had a feeling they would be pretty good last year, so I took the over. Like I said earlier, this year I think it’ll be Carolina. Everyone seems to think they’re going to be terrible. I don’t see them being good, but 5.5 wins is a pretty low bar. I’m not 100% on this one yet, but I’m leaning heavily that way. I still really like the Bills over, so you’re probably stuck with me for a while. Just booked a trip to Vegas last night.

Vegas is so dumb. What are they thinking? Take their money.

Fade the movement if it does.

You and every other $50 player. Denver and New England all day. I’m planning on pounding the Panthers all year. Panthers over 5.5 wins in 2020 might be my new ‘Bills over 6.5 in 2019’. Boy are their message board fans going to get sick of me when I’m their problem instead of yours... Yeah. If there’s one coach in history I want to manage a truncated offseason, it’s BB. Fade him at your own risk.

Is the Thursday night game considered prime time? I guess it technically is, but gross.

I’m a Chiefs fan. I became a Bills follower because of the two bets I placed prior to the season, and I didn’t have any action on any individual Buffalo games last season. Going into the season, I saw NE as a 10-6 team and Buffalo as an 8 or 9 win team. When I made the bet, Buffalo was +1700, so I put $250 on them. That number dropped to around 1200 by the time the season started IIRC. Their win total was 6.5 and I pounded the hell out of that. It moved to 7 and might have even touched 7.5 at one point. New England shocked me by looking like a juggernaut to start the season, but they wound up being about who I expected by the time the season ended. I vastly underestimated their defense and special teams’ ability to pull games out of the fire. I’m not the first guy to get burned betting against BB, but I still feel like it was a good value at those odds.

For sure, but it’s not a stretch to say that’s why it’s burned into my memory. Things work both ways, but you always remember the losses better. I had a much larger bet on the Bills winning over 6.5 games, and I remember feeling like stealing the week 1 Jets game iced that one. (It still didn’t pay as much as the division win would have, though.)

I put a pretty sizeable bet on the Bills to win the AFCE before the season. If they had won that game, I believe they would have played their starters in week 17, beat the Jets, and finished tied with New England. They would have been 5-1 in the division and won the tie breaker.

Without that hit, it would have been 3rd and 18 from the Buffalo 46. Allen may have played the worst game I’ve seen a QB play since Peterman’s debacle. If Josh had another quarter, he may have surpassed that. (The link to the condensed version of the game is below). The first quarter was absolutely the worst display of QBing I’ve ever seen, bar none. I challenge anyone to watch it again and say otherwise. That game wound up costing me a lot of money. I remember it well. He was missing receivers by yards on swing passes, deep balls, and sideline routes. He took horrific sacks where he looked completely lost on the field. He fumbled twice (one was waived off because of a penalty). It was abysmal. https://gamepass.nfl.com/game/patriots-at-bills-on-09292019?condensed=true

The game where he was 13-28 with 0 TDs and 3 INTs and a fumble? Probably not.

Didn't the Jets also miss a PAT and a couple of FGs?

There are going to be a lot of shocked fans around here soon. Let’s look at the backup QBs BB has had in New England: Tom Brady: 9 Super Bowls, 6 rings Matt Cassel: 11-5 in NE and made the playoffs and a pro bowl in Kansas City Jacoby Brissett: Started for the Colts Jimmy G: Started in the Super Bowl I think it’s safe to say that BB understands how to find and groom backup QBs. There have never been more starting QBs available as this season between Rivers, Brady, Newton, Dalton, Winston, Bridgewater, etc. If BB didn’t think Stidham was the guy, he had plenty of options. I haven’t seen any indication that he’s interested. If that changes, there are still solid options available. They had a bad offense, a great defense, and great special teams last year. No reason to think they can’t pull off something similar this year. I don’t know if they’re going to compete for the bye, but they’re still going to be smart, disciplined, and well coached in all facets. That’s enough to be a good team. I’ve watched a ridiculous amount of condensed replays on Gamepass this offseason, and I’m amazed at how undisciplined and unprepared many teams are. A tremendous amount of games are decided because a team beats itself. That team is never coached by BB. They look like a 6-10 team to me on paper, but I know better. So does Vegas.

I don’t think much of him as a coach, but he did well last year. They were expected to win 7 games according to Vegas. They hit that number in spite of the fact that their starting QB was out or less than 100% for several games. New York has a talent problem. Can’t really expect much better than 7-9 with that roster.

This thread is revisionist history at it’s finest.

What authority does the league have to punish agents?

He threw 24 TDs and 12 INTs in 2018. He’s plenty good enough to be a backup for a long, long time. I could see him become a decent player if he went somewhere like KC or New Orleans and had great coaching. I don’t think he’s getting that in Chicago.

I agree with both of you. Just saying that his 5th year option really doesn’t provide much value over the franchise tag.