Billl

The assumption is that all will rookies improve over time. That doesn’t mean they can’t be major contributors in year one, especially late in the season and in the playoffs. Coleman had 1 catch for 5 yards in the WC round, 1 catch for 5 yards in the Divisional, and 1 catch for 12 yards in the CCG. If he’d put up 6 catches for 85 yards and a TD against KC, Buffalo likely would have been in the Super Bowl. Even if he becomes a stud in year 3, that doesn’t change the past.

So what do you think Shakir is going to get on his next contract? He’s 800 yards and 4 TDS.

Not at the level Ladd did it, you can’t. Including the postseason, he had the third most yards in the entire league. On top of that, he exploded in the second half of the season. He’s easily worth multiple first round picks. No way they’d trade him to Buffalo for their next two first round picks, for example.

Yes, McConkey is significantly better. I’m a fan of Shakir, but we saw his ceiling in 2023 and we saw what happens when you try to make him a #1 in 2024. As far as replacing Coleman goes, who cares? He had 550 yards and 4 TDs. Ladd’s worth Shakir, Coleman, and a 1st rounder. You build a team around a guy like that. Guys who can get 550 yards and 4 TDs grow on trees. DeAndre Hopkins had 600 yards and 5 TDs and was traded for the 170th pick in the draft. Replacing that kind of production shouldn’t be what keeps a GM up at night. What should keep them up is figuring out how to get elite talent to help maximize the production of an MVP caliber QB.

Even if McConkey is strictly a slot guy, who cares? He played 17 games and had 1350 yards. Shakir played 18 games and had 900 yards. Now the debate is whether or not to give him a contract likely in the neighborhood of 4/$70 million. Meanwhile, Xavier Worthy played primarily on the outside, and Coleman looked like a slot being miscast as an X. When you draft enough high end talent, the roster construction takes care of itself.

In what way did it cool off after pick 25? Xavier Worthy went at 28. McConkey was 34. Braden Fiske was 39. Dejean went 40th, and Kamari Lassiter was 42nd. Those are all foundational pieces for the teams that drafted them.

I thought the exact same thing. It felt like he cared more about a third round pick that he didn’t have than the first round pick he did have. He started out with a first and second but no third and wound up with two seconds, a third, and no first.

Cook does, but I disagree on Shakir. He was way overused this season. He was used perfectly in 2023 and was an incredibly efficient player. He’s also a case study in diminishing returns. When people just assume that if you double a player’s targets then you can pencil them in for double the production, I’d refer them to Shakir’s 2024 season. He got more than double the targets, but his production barely moved, and his efficiency took a nosedive. He’s excellent in his 2023 role, but trying to run an offense through him is a terrible idea. Let him be a complimentary piece similar to a Cole Beasley. Shakir should be getting around 60-70 targets a season. If someone offers him $20mm AAV, you shake his hand and wish him well.

When thinking about trading a player and his value, first put yourself in the shoes of the other GM. What would you be willing to give up in order to acquire a 31 year old coverage Linebacker who has missed 25 games over the past two seasons? You’d be looking at one of those swaps of 7th round picks type of trades.

I agree with your point about being able to influence matchups more easily out of the slot, but that can’t be dispositive in terms of whether or not you draft a blue chip player. I’ve seen this used to explain away why they didn’t draft McConkey or Xavier Worthy, but if you’re passing on guys who played a combined 36 games and put up 2400 yards and 20 TDs as rookies because they “don’t fit”, then something is fundamentally broken. This is especially true given that they drafted Coleman instead who is arguably a better fit in the slot but they’re trying to convert to an outside receiver anyway.

Why do you care so much about where a player lines up? McConkey is a stud, full stop. As much as I respect your evaluations, you can’t see the forest through the trees when it comes to evaluating WRs and CBs because you haven’t caught up to where the league has gone. The best WRs play the slot. The best CBs play boundary but can also play slot, support in run defense, and can rush when needed. Ladd McConkey would have made 32 teams better. Khalil Shakir should not be influencing draft strategy.

Didn’t he just have 100 yards and a TD in the AFCCG?

That team is loaded. They just played the most impressive game of football I’ve seen in 20+ years.

There was a stretch of several years during which nobody even debated who the best QB was because Favre was on a completely different level. He won 3 consecutive MVPs and went to back to back Super Bowls win in one of them.

Well deserved, seems like a good dude as well. Congrats