FireChans

GB had 17 WR’s in his top 100 in 2020. It will be interesting to see how many there are this year. Also, @GunnerBill are you still doing QB evals? Not as fun when we aren’t in the market, but they are usually a great read.

Coaches also used to punt on their opponents 40 or kick field goals on 4th and goal from the half yard line “for a reason.” That’s why you implement the change and work on it with your kicker. I refuse to believe that this play has been optimized at random since 1940 with how much cave-man thinking occurs in football.

There are lots of obscure things about NFL field goal protocol. For example, just about every kicking unit in the NFL is 7 yards behind the line of scrimmage. This is the way it’s always been done. But this adds on an extra 7 yards every attempt. What I’m suggesting is the Bills move it a little bit close. Let’s say 5 yards. Suddenly that 50 yard FG is a 48 yarder. Suddenly that 40 yard FG is a 38 yarder. And even extra points are just a little bit easier. It the long run, this will play huge dividends. The difference between a 39 yard FG and a 41 yard FG is about 7% in conversion rate. Over the course of a few seasons, that’s a huge amount of conversions. The real secret is don’t tell anybody you’re doing this. Don’t tell the refs, don’t tell the media, don’t tell anybody. Just move up a bit and reap the rewards.

Do you think this is a top-heavy WR draft or a deep draft? I only ask because I felt that in 2020, there were some great first round players, but the real strength of the WR class was that there would be guys in the later rounds that would’ve gone much higher in different years. Do you think that’s the case this year? Or is the strength truly in the first 10 or so prospects?

Does Josh remain a cautionary tale on trading up?

There’s like 3 posters in TBD history who I actually believe have ever watched any real film.

If the goal was to make the NFL trade deadline much more exciting, moving it back always made a ton of sense. You are looking for a balance of teams to be buyers and sellers and it was far too early.

It’s Huff at a smaller deal + a third vs Reddick at a larger deal. Huff doesn’t have to be better than Reddick today to win the trade.

If the 2020 Bills got the ball back down 3 with 13 seconds and 3 TO’s, I would 100% believe that Josh, Prime Stef, Beasley, Brown and Gabe were still alive to tie game. Upgrade everyone to Mahomes, Kelce, Hill and yeah, for sure.

@GunnerBill I know it seems silly, but Penix does not get past Seattle.

I don’t know why I love Javon Bullard. I just do.

You’re standing by “never,” then?

Never?

He was 0-2 until 2006. He didn’t beat Brady until 30 years old. Brady had won 3 SB’s at that point. Peyton, of course, had been to one AFCCG at that point (a loss to the Pats), which for folks keeping score, meant one divisional round victory in his CAREER at 30. Brush up on your history, my friend.

As we all know, when Peyton was getting clowned by Brady in the postseason, we all didn’t agree that Brady was just a better playoff QB, but that it really wasn’t Peyton’s fault. Lol

“Engage in my bad faith argument so I can prove you wrong” No thanks champ.

In your world, beating a wild card opponent in the wild card round, then a wild card opponent in the divisional round (who had to beat the #4 seed divisional winner to get there) is worse than not winning a playoff game since 2016. Make it make sense.

Josh’s playoff passer rating is less. It’s less when he plays Mahomes too. Not really “barely difference.” Josh has passer ratings in the 80s for 2/3 games against Patrick. he still plays well though. Just not AS WELL. And the one who plays better has won the SB 3 times in the last 5 years. So that’s probably why one is considered better and the other is criticized. Jmo.

This is going to be tough to hear but: Mahomes in his three playoff games against Allen 1011 yards 9 TD's 0 INT's. He has never had a passer rating of less than 123 (!!!!!) against Allen in the playoffs.

Andy Reid failed win a divisional game for 4 years with Alex Smith Mike Tomlin hasn't won a playoff game, let alone lost in the divisional round, since 2016. John Harbaugh has won 2 playoff games since 2014. Big Ben has never beaten Tom Brady in the postseason. This is fun.

"Don't call it unless it's blatantly obvious... " This won't happen "They can't go from 1% of tackles to calling it seven times a game on a penalty.. this is to stop the few players in the league who are dangerous tacklers" They don't have to call it 7 times a game. They just have to be wrong a bunch of times calling it. I am not afraid that they are going to miss hip drop tackle calls (they will but that's besides the point.) They are going to call the penalty wrong. This is a fact. They say there were 230 hip drop tackles last year. Assuming coaches start telling guys "hey make sure not to do this," there will probably less of them. Let's say there's 200 of them. There's 272 games in the regular season. So if they batted 1.000 on calling this penalty, they would call it less than once per game. Every 1.36 games. This won't happen, we can all agree. If they called it, but were wrong 30% of the time, and missed valid calls 30% of the time, they would still call it every 1.36 games. But 30% of those calls would be wrong. That's 69 calls over a 17 game season that are wrong. That's a wrong call every 4 games out of the 272 game season. That's A LOT. It's obvious scenario 2 is much more likely than scenario 1. It's inarguable, really.

the horse collar penalty wasn’t invented last year. point of emphasis rules and new player safety rules are ALWAYS called a ton when they first come out. You could argue that’s by design because they are trying to drum it out of the game, but it’s true. illegal to hit QB’s below the knees. Called a ton when the penalty was first changed, sometimes penalties were bogus Illegal to land on QB during sack. Called a ton when the penalty was first changed, sometimes penalties were bogus. Personal fouls on defenseless receiver. Called a ton when the penalty was first changed, sometimes they were bogus. This is really obvious. They are not going to call this 1% of the time and it always be correct. They are going to get it wrong, often. This is really indisputable. I’m not sure there’s a single person who thinks the refs are going to always be right when they call this penalty, not even the refs probably believe that.

I honestly can’t disagree harder. They will, almost guaranteed, call a ton of hip drop tackle penalties that are not penalties, they will also call some that are legit. Just like they do for EVERY OTHER SINGLE PENALTY. Arguing the NFL officials will “get it right,” as a fan of the NFL is just absurd. It makes me wonder if you work for the league office.

They are going to throw the flag incorrectly. Everyone keeps throwing the “1% of tackles” thing out like the officials have never overcalled certain penalties in the pursuit of player safety. It is hysterical.

very fun, very cool