FireChans

If they are better at it, they, by definition, are not wrong as much as everyone else. They are actually wrong the least. Because they are better at it. That’s what “better” means!

The NFL is resistant to analytics because they don’t want the data out there. The problem with arguing about draft pick accumulation is that draft pick trades are not always “more valuable pick next year for this year’s pick,” which is sort of a fallacious argument. Yes, if a team offered next years first for your second every year, you’d be stupid to not take it. But what’s the data on trading down from the 5th round for a 6th and 2 7ths? Probably not as much of a slam dunk. What about your second for an extra 3rd and 4th and next years 3rd? Hard to say if that’s as much of a no-brainer. I will be first to say if a team offers us a first next year for pick 60, Brandon Beane should take it. They won’t, though.

The article legit says Ozzie Newsome was better than almost everyone else.

We are never going to suck bad enough to pick where the next Jamar Chase is going to go unless Josh gets hurt. So you either leverage your future or you don’t complain about not having elite weapons.

Brock Purdy should thank his lucky stars Tua exists running a derivative scheme from his HC’s tree. He seems like a good kid so I don’t like to rag on him, but he’s closer to Mac Jones than an elite QB.

Yup. The days of Bills fans dreaming for a 20 year reign of terror with 10 SB appearances is long dead. We gotta try to build up the rest of the roster to sneak one or two if Pat twists his ankle.

No

No. All of those teams had to win multiple playoff games to get to the SB. We haven’t won multiple playoff games since the Raiders were in Oakland. You can’t win a SB unless you get there. I’ll take our chances if we get there. Also, the Buccaneers and Rams did win. 49ers and Eagles were a play away from winning with far worse QB’s. the only other strategy available to us is trade Allen/McD and 10 first round picks for Reid and Mahomes straight up.

Yes it was a second for Hardman and a third and 6th for Toney. That’s why I keep asking @Alphadawg7 what strategy he thinks works. The only fool-proof strategy to be a consistent SB winner is to acquire the greatest QB of the generation and pair him with one of the greatest coaches of the generation. Then it doesn’t matter what you do. Nothing else works.

We don’t have a ton of assets unfortunately. So I do agree with you. I would much rather have 2 cost controlled WR’s at this stage of our team. But that’s really just because it’s the reality of the 2024 Bills. Ideally, I would take a WR high and get an Aiyuk if I could. But the facts of the matter are clear. The Eagles used a top 10 pick on Smith, and traded a first for Brown and signed him to big money. They went from a fringe playoff team to a SB team. The Bengals used a top 10 pick on Chase, and pick 33 on Tee Higgins. They went from the worst team in football to a SB team. The 49ers remained an SB team by spending a first round pick on WR, and giving Deebo and Kittle and CMC big money. All without a great QB. The Rams paid big money to Kupp, Gave Woods a decent sized contract, traded a second for Watkins, traded a first for Cooks, and brought in OBJ for a run. They went to two Super Bowls and won 1. The Bucs invested a lot in their group of Evans, Godwin, etc etc for their SB. really, the only team to go to with a horrific receiving target group was the Chiefs. And much like the old Patriots, it’s hard to replicate their strategy because they win even when their strategy sucks. And they didn’t even not invest, they just had crappy investments. 2nd for Toney, 2nd for Skyy Moore, 2nd for Rice. Surround your great QB with talent so he can be great in the biggest moments is obviously the way. We have the QB. It’s time to invest in the talent around him.

Because your statement was something NFL FO’s have known for decades and was very silly? One day they will realize great QBs are more important than WR’s. I think that day came and went in 1982 my guy.

What strategy does pay off?

QB’s are already the highest paid position by a lot lol.

I can see the weary Brandon Beane presser when they go DE/S in rounds 1 and 2. "The DE we selected was our last first round prospect left" "Obviously, you look at WR as the strength of this class but you have to select the players at the top of your board, especially when the draft falls that way." And then Josh separates his shoulder week 8 trying to rush for his 20th TD of the year because he has no one to throw to.

None of it matters until they figure out the QB. We know this.

Come on bro. Aiyuk over Julio Jones? Julio was filthy in 2015

Keeping their lame duck HC to get fired in the middle of Caleb’s rookie deal is not smart lol

They would if they were smart. I’m not sure they are smart.

Meh he was very good but he was still much less productive than 2021. And he had that lingering hammy last year. I like Kupp a lot. I don’t have him top 10 heading into 2024. Feel like that’s fair evaluation of a 31 year old WR who hasn’t eclipsed 1k in 2 seasons, has been oft injured and best days are probably behind him. This is obvious. Keenan Allen was traded for a 4th. Diggs was traded for a 2nd. Will Higgins/Aiyuk be traded for that price, even despite them about to need a contract as well? Of course not.

He’s not better than DJ Moore. Kupp hasn’t been healthy in 2 seasons. I have very high concerns that he will be the 2021 version of himself in 2024 at 31 years old.

Hard disagree on Kupp, Nakua and Olave. Extremely hard disagree.

He demanded a trade

No, of course not. I didn’t say who was more “valuable” because that’s a much easier conversation. then even guys like Higgins are more valuable than guys like Adams when they are not in the same convo in regards to talent. I think Aiyuk will be a top 10 WR in regards to his talent and production around the league. He’s gonna get a top 5 contract because of his age. Must be down on Tee Higgins too, right? it’s all contract negotiation. Deebo did the same thing a few years back. I doubt he goes anywhere.

I have a very high opinion of Wilson, but I take Aiyuk.

Higgins is probably right below Aiyuk to me. They have very different skill sets. Aiyuk is much better at YAC (part of that is the Shanny scheme) whereas Tee is more of a contested catch guy (and tbh is much more overrated a skill at the NFL level.) Tee to me is a 1B maximum. There’s a reason they chased Chase the next year. Aiyuk had his other WR miss time and posted a BLISTERING 17.9 YPC and a passer rating of 124 when targeted. That’s elite. I think as awesome as it would be to trade and pay him, it’s probably bad business. But I do think he’s going to be in the top 10 next year and will be paid like it. Guys who I would take in 2024 over Aiyuk in no particular order. JJ Chase Hill Lamb St Brown AJ Brown McLaurin ?Evans ?Adams ?Diggs If just one of Diggs/Adams/Evans falls off a Cliff, he’s in my top 10.