FireChans

They will have to be more heavily involved by definition because they are the only ones that you listed that are on the roster.

Sure, but is that fail rate any higher than the normal 3rd - 7th fail rate? If there’s a fifth round player that should be a second round player and they hit, they likely hit bigger than the run of the mill JAG that would qualify as a hit in that round.

If you aren’t bold, you can’t lord your predictions over the rest.

@Alphadawg7 Jerry Jones hasn’t made a “cute” first round pick in many years now. Their first round pick last year was their LT in waiting while Smith got old (and was quite a foresight). Zero chance they take Worthy imo. DB or OL will be their pick, or another WR.

That’s the exact player I WOUDNT touch. He may have some great individual seasons being fed targets. But he can’t beat man consistently (jump balls are not consistent winners in todays NFL) and he will be a WR that you get and constantly search for another top end WR to pair with him. WR2 ceiling

It’s also easy to not hate him because the Bills are his daddy. Remember the 2020 blowout where they lost the game in the first Q and couldn’t mount a comeback against backups to make the postseason? Hard to hate something that. It’s why Pats fans didn’t hate us up til like now.

I’m an all-time KA fan, he was a dude I loved in SD with Rivers. I’m not sure he was ever a traditional high-end WR1. He was closer to the back end of the top 10 of WR’s rather than top 5 to me. It’s splitting hairs because he’s still a great player, but his peak was still a Davante Adams lite, imo.

There’s a world of difference in todays NFL of 4.71 and 4.57 imo

Haven’t watched enough of him, but my baseline concern is ability to get open v man at the NFL level. That’s not just him, that’s any relatively slower player.

Where are the sleepers?

@GunnerBill is legit one of the best draft commentary dudes around. He had Juwan Johnson IIRC as a sleeper target in the 7th round a few years back, and Johnson has 800+ yards and 11 TD’s in the last two seasons. Guy knows his stuff.

Zinter is absolutely a target for me in the later rounds if he’s available. Great IOL replacement player in a year or two.

You’d also need more picks as they are gonna be playoff team picks. 5 pick 26+’s are worth like 1 or 2 top 10 picks.

The one strategy that I have always subscribed to is getting day 1/2 talent in day 3 because of poor medicals, off the field concerns, etc. We have seen this pay off for teams in the past. Mathieu Hill Biadasz Trey Smith Paye JOK Myles Jack Mixon Those guys all fell due to medicals or off the field stuff. And they all wildly outperformed their draft position. So who are the red flag guys who have great talent, and a not so great background?

Sutton doesn’t fit the timeline anymore of the team. the time to trade for him was mid season last year when Sherfield and Harty had proven to be laughable signings. we probably beat the Chiefs if Sutton was on the roster in the postseason. But that’s over now.

Relitigating a Shady McCoy bar fight from almost a decade ago is so on-brand though.

Meh, I agree with a lot of what you said, but the stories of most of those players’ careers just hadn’t been written yet. Sammy was probably regarded as better WR talent than Tyreek in 2017, but today it’s not close. Ditto with Dareus and Chris Jones. And Charles Clay and Kelce. Maybe all those dudes reach different heights if the circumstances were different but I doubt it. Sammy was a nutcase, Dareus preferred eating to playing, and Charles Clay’s knees were disintegrating before our eyes. And Sammy was unsalvageable by McVay and Reid. I agree back then it wasn’t some gigantic talent gap though.

He probably doesn’t have the same success he had in KC. But we also don’t send him to an in-conference rival with a stacked roster to send us home every year. the point isn’t, “if we drafted Mahomes do we have 4 SB trips?” The point is, “if we send Mahomes literally anywhere other than the Chiefs with future HoF players and a HoF coach, are the Bills getting sent home by the Chiefs every year?” And the answer to that is obvious, imo.

Oh well in that case!

Even the 50-50 guys aren’t 50-50 to be homeruns. They are 50-50 to be Gabe Davis’

It’s doubly painful that the Bills traded him to a team that was 10 steps ahead of the Bills from a talent standpoint at the time. Jones, Kelce and Hill, their cornerstone HoFers were all there. I think they’ve still out done us in personnel but the gap shrank considerably just by virtue of standard NFL erosion and different team building timelines. It’s like if the Dolphins traded us Marino while we had Reed, Thurman and Bruce already on the roster as a perennial playoff team. Even if Mahomes is in the NFC, on a team like the Saints, maybe he still stands in our way in the SB but it would feel much more like an all-time rivalry. Allen V Mahomes in the final game of the year. And with a Dennis Allen or Sean Payton and that roster, we would have the edge on personnel. Ultimately, we birthed the generational dynasty. Much like the Jets did when they knocked out Drew Bledsoe (and they still are miserable about it.) And this graphic is pain.

FWIW, I believe the top 3 in this class are universally rated higher than in the 2020 class. I guess that’s my point though. We traded our first for Diggs because we didn’t think there was a sure thing at pick 22. That had its own version of risk because we had to take on more money to pay Diggs, even though he had a much higher floor as an established pro. There is no risk free avenue in the NFL. Trading multiple picks to get an all time prospect is a risk. Trading a pick for an established vet who needs to get paid is a risk. Trading away a pick to punt on a QB selection is a risk. Trading into the top 10 for a QB is a risk.

Usually they extensions include that year and bring down their cap hit. It’s why Jerry Jeudy appeared to get so much GTD money in his extension, because this season for him was already fully GTD.

To @Kirby Jackson’s point, there are exceptions to even this philosophy. Baltimore famously traded up for Flacco in 2008 and LJ in 2018.

Curse of the Bambino. ARod’s journalism career is really taking off.