FireChans

What you are missing is that having good to great WR’s helps the most important position on the field. Despite Barkley and Henry having career years, in both of their team’s final games of the year, they didn’t do much. It came down to the QB passing. Does anyone think Jalen Hurts is a good enough QB to play in 2 SB’s in 3 years without an absolute elite WR1 and WR2? Does anyone think Tua is a playoff QB without Tyreek and Waddle? Does anyone think Brock Purdy is a multi conference championship QB without his gaggle of weapons? Sure, the OL matters a lot too, but that’s a 5 position group so their numbers get spread out. But LTs and to a lesser extent RT’s get big bucks too. The other thing is efficiency. Jamar Chase had a great 9.8 yard per target. Barkley and Henry had 6.0 and 6.1 yards per touch. You are quite literally getting almost 40% more yards just THROWING AT CHASE, not even necessarily completions, than handing off or completing passes to backs.

I bet Shakir re-ups in Buffalo for $19-20M AAV. Which at that price point is a mistake. IMO.

It’s been close to a decade so I’ll allow it. His client list is a who’s who of guys who were problems with the Bills. Peters, Byrd, Sammy etc

Meh, I’m okay with trading Cook because I think selling high on a running back I’m not sure I want to pay is just good business. The off the field or social media stuff is irrelevant except for the number he supposedly wants. Getting Cook with a late second, him having two great years, then moving on and getting a third round pick is tremendous value to me. Two years of borderline elite RB play to move down a round?

He’s been extended but his cap hit is still low in part because they added void years, but also because he is still technically in his rookie deal, which ran through 2024 with his fifth year option in 2025. It’s the same reason Josh had a $10M cap hit in 2021. His extension didn’t really kick in from a cap hit standpoint until this season.

Good food for thought. Here’s the challenge though. If you are basing your analysis off being paid, rookie contracts by definition are going to be excluded. So the entire GB recieving group is of course eliminated from this analysis. Devonta Smith isn’t included because his extension hasn’t come in yet. Devonta Smith is a great WR. His cap hit this season is only $7M because he’s still playing on a rookie deal. The argument that the running teams make the playoffs more is no different than folks arguing a decade ago that the teams with the highest passing yards sometimes missed the playoffs, ergo, we don’t need a QB. It’s faulty analysis. I would bet heavily that the teams that the teams that threw the least in 2024 also had near tops in the league time spent with a lead. The teams that passed the most, like the Bengals, were forced to. That is not necessarily the reason they were bad. Correlation =\= causation. Let’s play your analysis back a different way. 5 of the top 12 running backs by rushing yards did not make the postseason. Does this mean that running the ball well is ALSO not really strongly correlated with success? Or, more likely, does that mean that it’s quite a bit more complicated than “x out of the top y didn’t make the postseason?” 5 out of the 10 top QB’s by AAV didn’t make the postseason in 2024. Does this mean that paying QB’s is a mistake and doesn’t help you win? Of course not. The argument I would make about WR’s is that while they are getting paid big bucks now, more and more talented athletes will play WR and enter the draft, and with an artificial ceiling on spending, they will dilute the market. Their value won’t continue to explode because of market forces. Make no mistake though. WRs are very important. Justin Jefferson is a big reason why Sam Darnold revived his career. Stefon Diggs was a big reason that Josh exploded on the scene as a superstar. They will continue to be important. The “middle class” of WR’s like Shakir will be overpaid, but the truly elite guys are going to be worth every penny.

Yup. i point to Ryan Grigson as a comparison. Landed the generational QB. Wonderful. Didn’t do enough to help that QB. Less than wonderful. Now I don’t think that Beane is as much of a disaster that Grigson was. But eventually that “found the QB” shine wears off. And unless the Bills see some more success, history won’t be as charitable.

Your point is well taken but how much worse was that OL compared to 2022? Saffold at LG, Bates at RG etc. 2014 vs 2015 is a tough debate. I think 2015 offense was significantly better. Richie was a huge addition to an IOL that really sucked. Weapons were better too. Problem is that the 2015 defense fell off a cliff. Mario went from All-Pro to mutineer and washed before our eyes and he was our elite edge. For me, I’d rather have the elite DL and bank on Josh making a little more magic on O, than Josh with a better offensive supporting cast but a defense that didn’t have difference makers. We’ve seen that already ha

Was it? Kyle Orton managed to do okay. Something tells me Josh would be fine, especially with a defensive line that could pick him up if there was an off day.

If it was Josh’s third-fifth season, they wouldn’t have cap problems. Just like we didn’t.

Um 2014 Sammy Watkins might’ve put up 1700 yards with Josh throwing him the ball. The OL wasn’t great but it wasn’t much worse than the 2022 Bills OL. If there were only 2 good DB’s and 2 JAGs on that team, how many good DB’s and JAGs do we have on ours? are we arguing Damar Hamlin is better than a JAG (spoilers, he’s actually worse lol) But you’re right. The strength of that team was a DL that could be dominant on their best day and make HoF QBs look silly. When have we ever seen teams like that win a SB, especially with competent QB play. Lmao

2014 team probably goes to the SB with Allen that year.

WR’s are more expensive. Draft WR’s because they are harder to pay. Don’t pay RB’s because they are easy to find. I’m just more bothered that we have spent 2 2nds, a 3rd and a 4th on RB’s in like 4 years. It’s gross.

I’m at the point where I’m debating if the Bills should pay Cook just so it gets them to stop drafting RBs so high every season.

I can promise this mock draft thread is more of a contribution to the board than every one of your posts combined.

If we draft any RB high I’m going to scream.

Eugene Parker right? he died and the Bills started getting FAs again.

What

By all means, if you wanna double down on the 29 year old staying healthy all of next year, that’s your prerogative.

I mean, we banked on Curtis Samuel last year and we had to trade a day 2 pick to rent a WR for half the year. Samuel of course had like 200 yards. So your stance of “let’s bank on him again, idiots!” is pretty ironic.

Huh. we want to re-sign Cooper to $15M AAV?

Meh, Monos can make fair (and obvious) points and still be an axe to grind loser desperately hanging onto relevancy. It’s kind of a common theme of Ty Dunne’s network.

I very much like Tre. He was just as bad as Elam this season. He’s toast. Sucks. But it’s over.

From a development standpoint, sure maybe McD and BB were helpful. the distinction is irrelevant now because Josh is that dude NOW. Just like Brady was that dude at 30. They don’t need the developing. They are superstars.

Corollary to that is that even BB was basically mediocre to bad in NE with the best culture in the NFL without his QB. It’s 90% Josh. Just like it was 90% Brady.