FireChans

Cutting Bass saves us $100k on the season. Factoring in signing a new kicker, I doubt he's going anywhere this season unless he's horrific in TC.

there is legitimately no heat dude.

And the first half of his rookie year where he was horrific Is this a fact? I know we say it a lot. But I’m sure there’s a stat that kicking average decreases in Buffalo by X if it’s true.

That’s good then. Lots of folks like to justify this garbo bottom barrel group talking about how top 5 paid WR’s never win SB’s. I thought it was interesting pair that with bottom 5 paid WR rooms who almost never win a single playoff game. I have no problems with, “this group looks weak until proven otherwise.” In fact, I agree with that wholeheartedly. And I agree that 2023 and 2022’s groups were also a weakness. What I also believe is that 2024 is somehow a step DOWN from those weak years. And that will be evident mid season when Beanenis scrambling to bring back Quintus Cepheus.

Mayfield never leaves Buffalo like he did Cleveland. I actually think we’d have around the same level of team success we have had with Josh.

That’s true, you can’t say AAV is necessarily indicative of less talent. And rookie deals do provide a significant difference, like Green Bay who has a very cheap room with 5 players on rookie deals. When Chase and Higgins were on their rookie deals though, they also had Boyd making decent money. Which is reflected in their AAV not being near the bottom. The bottom line if the Bills win in divisional round this season, it would be the best season in recent years with a low AAV WR group. Keon’s salary was added this afternoon. We were originally 5th lowest, now we are 6th lowest.

Brother, you made the point about expensive WR’s and not winning. So I made the point about cheap WR’s and not winning. Do you really not see the link between those two arguments?

I think the argument is that the WR room this year is sorta like the MLB room last year. Last year, there was lots of rotating in and out between Bernard, Williams, Dodson etc. It was a position group without an incumbent starter. We didn't rotate as many bodies at the WR position because we had Diggs and Davis and a bunch of other guys that couldn't really play anyway. The difference is that one of those positions is the running back of the defense and the other is the second highest paid position in football, but alas.

All would be very good counterpoints as long as your prevailing thesis of the offseason isn't, "no expensive WR rooms have ever won a championship."

The Chiefs WR room was 19th in AAV last year. The Bills WR room is 27th in AAV in 2024.

FYI, AAV is their contracts, not approximate value.

I do know it. It's not a "personal grade," at all. It's completely numerical. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/_/year/2024/table/active/type/contract_average/sort/wr/dir/desc Oh GDI, the Bills are bottom 6. Back to the drawing board. Anyway, we are bottom 6 in AAV of WR's. I can re-do my analysis if you'd like, I doubt it changes much. I think Keon Coleman ***** it up by not signing his contract til the afternoon lol. AAV by year of contracts, per Spotrac.

That exercise took me sooooooo long. If @eball doesn’t respond, I’m gonna go back to just making snide comments.

Aw man, this USA Today writer is upset that the Bills bold stance of releasing a punter who was accused of heinous ***** now “rings hollow.” Anyway.

This off-season? No way lol that would be so insane

Fair enough! In the bottom 5 units of the last 4 years, the QBs (that played the most) are: Heinecke, Big Ben, Carr, Cam Newton, Drew Lock, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan again, Justin Fields, Mariota, Jordan Love, Gardner Minshew, Kyler Murray, Derek Carr again, Kirk Cousins again. again, 1 playoff win between the crew. The top 5 units of the last 4 years: Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Kyler Murray again, Tua, Derek Carr, Geno Smith, Jimmy G, Tua again, Geno again, Baker, and Sam Howell. Now, at first glance, I think group two looks a bit better as a QB grouping. But for sake of argument, take Allen and Rodgers out because both were playing at MVP levels and that’s gonna skew the numbers a bit. The list below is closer to “league average” QB. Baker - 1 playoff appearance and win with the Bucs in the top 5 group Miami - 2 playoff appearances in the top 5 group Brady - 1 playoff appearance in the top 5 group (2022) Geno - 1 playoff appearance in the top 5 group Goff - 1 playoff appearance in the top 5 group lets look at some of their contemporaries in the bottom 5 group: Heinecke - 1 playoff appearance in the bottom Big Ben - 1 playoff appearance in the bottom (2020) Carr - 1 playoff appearance in the bottom (21) Jackson - 1 playoff appearance in the bottom (2022) Love - 1 playoff appearance and win in the bottom. I would argue the groups are at least comparable now. I probably lean towards the bottom group being better at the time they played. But that’s the whole point. A great WR group had Baker and Geno and Goff achieving the same success as Lamar or Jordan Love, who imo, are much better. Now the corollary could be that if you have an athletic franchise QB, they can drag a bottom 5 group to the WC round. But I think we all agreed on that before lol.

Do we have another kicker in camp? His career could be ova here. Dan Carpenter had the same thing happen to him.

Then it’s equally relevant who is throwing them the ball with a top 5 unit, right? I’m not discussing talent. I’m discussing pure contract numbers by AAV.

Based on how much the WR’s are paid or based on their win totals?

Big expensive WR's don't guarantee you anything. Agree with that. What do bottom 5 WR rooms guarantee you? In 2023, the 5 teams with bottom 5 WR rooms by AAV went 36-49, collectively. One team made the postseason and won 1 game. In 2022, the bottom 5 teams went 29-56, collectively. One team made the postseason and lost in the WC round. in 2021, the bottom 5 teams went 37-48, collectively. One team made the postseason and lost in the WC round. In 2020, the bottom 5 teams went 39-41, collectively. Two teams made the postseason, and both lost in the WC round. So a bottom 5 WR group, based on the last 4 seasons, doesn't really seem to be a recipe for success. Right? 1 team in the last 4 seasons WON a SINGLE playoff game. That's the peak of this strategy. For comparison, I can do top 5 WR room numbers. Would guarantee they are much better lol. Also, FYI, the Bills are bottom 5 as it stands in 2024.

So MVS and Mack Hollins are better than Diggs and Hill and Chase and Higgins? Is this the conclusion to draw from these ridiculous posts?

So you wouldn't take any of those players listed because they didn't win a playoff game last year? Chase/Higgins have been to a Super Bowl. Hill has been to 2 and won 1. How many SB appearances does Shavers and Isabella have again?

I have a wonderful photo of Keon getting caught from behind by a sloth-human hybrid player in a prehistoric Highmark Stadium, but it is too big to upload.

Fwiw, I think Brady is better than Peyton, and Peyton is 3-2 vs him in the postseason.

Here’s my criteria: Bills lose in the playoffs to any team not named the Chiefs, unless it’s in the Super Bowl, I’m done with Beane/McD. Full stop. Theres an argument that we are just second best in the conference and can’t get by the dynasty of our time. I happen to agree with that argument. But if we lose to the Texans or the Bengals again or the Ravens, then we are at best the third or 4th best team in the conference and that means it’s time to go.