FireChans

Vegas has us ~6th in SB odds. Sounds about right to me.

What about 33?

That’s true. Did they also hit on elite talent?

I can’t be making a strawman when I have been making the same point for like 3 pages and you have been disagreeing with every single one lol. I physically CANNOT be more consistent with my argument. If you are now saying that the 2018 and 2019 off seasons were missed opportunities for draft capital (which is the point I have made for, again, like 3 pages) and that the Bengals did hit on some elite talent with their early picks, why are you still arguing with me? Lol

So, to the bolded, my point of contention is that: We had a down year, in 2018. We also traded back in 2017 to add an extra first round pick for the next year. In those two off seasons, we picked players at #7, #9, #16, #38. Picks we can all agree are not bottom of the first and bottom of the second rounds. They are the highest picks that the Bills have had since Josh became Josh. In those two off-seasons, we drafted 1 elite player with those picks. Which is not enough to win a Super Bowl, even though the elite player was a QB. If we had drafted a HoF TE in the third, it wouldn’t matter as much. But we didn’t. If we had drafted a few elite offensive linemen in the late rounds, it wouldn’t matter as much. But we didn’t. if we had drafted an elite pass rusher in the second, it wouldn’t matter as much. But we didn’t. The Ravens and Chiefs haven’t had many down years between the two of them. But they have found more stars than us. The Bengals have had more down years than us. But they have also found more stars than us. So, imo, not finding stars when we had relatively high picks is a blown opportunity. Finding stars in the mid rounds is very difficult and ultimately very predictable. Your top 10 pick needs to be a home run. It wasn’t. Your trade up to 16 has to be a player you think is worth a second contract with us. He wasn’t. If one or two of those picks had been better players, we may be discussing if the Bills can 3peat SB runs today. But they weren’t, so we aren’t. We are instead discussing why we have continuously been the 3rd or 4th best AFC team with a QB who has been the best or second best QB in the NFL. Beane isn’t perfect. The expectation to be perfect is not what I’m talking about. IIRC, Ed Oliver was the consensus 1B DT pre-draft. In a redraft, with the benefit of hindsight, he would obviously be lower than that. But you could make the argument that it wasn’t a miss, especially because he’s not a bad player, he’s just not a great player. But you cannot make the argument that we have not had chances to get elite players higher than pick 28 because of our oh-so terrible draft position because we are so damn good all the time. We have had chances, and we didn’t execute them, save one (the most important one).

Tee Higgins was hurt and his QB was hurt. Did you watch the games lol He will sign a bigger contract than both Eddie and Edmunds because …. wait for it…. he’s worth more. Kyle Hamilton was drafted by the Ravens in the first, he’s a star. Trent McDuffie was drafted by the Chiefs in the first, he’s a star. They also got Karlaftis who had 10.5 sacks last year in his second season. The logic of some of y’all confound me a little bit. Our GMing is great. Our QB is the best in the league. Our team is great. Our coaches are great. How come the Bengals have beaten the Chiefs in the playoffs and gotten to a Super Bowl before we have when we are superior in everything? How have the Ravens gotten to a more recent AFCCG than the Bills have if we are superior in everything? How are the Chiefs defending back to back SB titles if we are so great? Maybe, just maybe, some of these things aren’t so great.

So trading UP for Edmunds is a far bigger failure than just sitting and taking him at #22? Is that what you are trying to say? also spoiler alert, our 1st two rounds are also full of ok at best guys lol

Omg, this is getting absurd. you think that because we traded up to pick #16 on Edmunds, he doesn’t count as using the 16th pick in the draft on him? You think that because we traded up to pick #7 for Josh, it doesn’t count as the 7th pick?

I would kill to have a Mario Williams on the Bills today, he was an absolute force and probably one of the best big market FA acquisitions in Bills history

I didn’t say the Bengals haven’t drafted busts. I said that when we had high picks when we were bad and picking high we didn’t nail as many as they did. I know folks have memory-holed the Bills picking in the top 10 with this current staff and Josh Allen but it happened. We also had 2 first rounders in 2018 because of the previous trade down. we didn’t get enough impact players with those picks. Folks are out here acting like we’ve been picking at #28 for Beano’s whole tenure and it just ain’t true.

Yeah, he is. you seem to think there’s a vast gulf between picks 5 and 33 and 9, 16 and 38. From a draft value perspective, 5 is 2184 points and 33 is 1228 points. That’s a total of 3412 points. 9, 16 and 38 are 1887, 1595, 1157 for a total of 4639 points So really the Bills non-QB picks have been worth more than the Bengals. And they have drafted impact players with those picks, and we have not. Its kinda undeniable. https://overthecap.com/draft-trade-value-chart#google_vignette

So why is Tee Higgins better than Tremaine Edmunds or Ed Oliver? He was not picked higher than either of them.

What does this have to do with anything? We didn’t get the #1 and #5 pick by being really bad so it’s okay that Edmunds doesn’t play here anymore and Ed Oliver is the 4th best first round DT in his class and Cody Ford was a massive bust? Even though Tee Higgins was pick #33, there’s no way Beane could’ve gotten as good of a player with pick #9 or pick #16 or pick #38? Because he traded up in 2018? Is that the argument?

I think the quick release intermediate to short stuff went away after Crowder got hurt, no?

Bets with me about HC interviews. Of which he got zero lol

Idk man, sounds like he was an unethical EPA merchant, and that’s why he’s got a new job getting Stefanski’s coffee.

Dorsey was the EPA gawd/fraud confirmed? Say it ain’t so.

No one is pretending staying behind the LOS precludes injury. Zero.

Why are you including the Burrow pick and not the Josh and Edmunds picks lol

I promise the day after the Super Bowl, you will see a whole new FC. Yes, Josh can get hurt in the pocket. Every QB can get hurt in the pocket. Every player who steps on the field can get hurt. Some can get hurt in warm ups or in training camp. Does any of that mean that it’s a bad idea to protect your franchise QB’s body and avoid as many hits as possible? Of course not. This is the silliest point ever on TBD. “why protect Josh from having to run so much when he could get hurt in a car accident on the way to the stadium” type logic.

If the justification for A is that he drafted the second best QB in football and that matters more than literally anything else, I’m fine with the A votes. Any other justification for the A grade is pure bunk, imo.

You can win with me. Surround Josh with enough weapons that he doesn’t feel like he has to run through linebackers to win games in November a la 2020. Then, when it’s do or die in the ACTUAL playoffs, he can be as close to peak physical health as possible. Instead, they have limited his weapons so that our offense is weaker than it should be with a QB of his caliber, arbitrarily tell him not to scramble and not to play hero up ball so we lose games in October and end 6-6 mid season, then let the reins off because we have to win out to make the playoffs and it becomes a 9 game playoff run starting in December. Sign me up for the first strategy over the second and I’ll be the first to hold hands and sing kumbaya

Josh: “I had to rework my mechanics this off-season because my injuries had me compensating incorrectly and making me a worse player” Beane: “I want Josh to keep that LB mentality and never change” 2024 off-season in a nutshell.

They weren’t the same drafts. I know this. That’s why I said the years. If we had taken Wilkins, or Lawrence or Simmons at #9 (all impact players that are better DT’s than Ed) and DK in the second, I would not be sitting here talking about how we failed to find impact players with those picks. If we had taken Jaire Alexander or DJ Moore (guys that would’ve for sure gotten second contracts with the Bills) over Edmunds (who was not an impact player and did not get a second contract here), I would not be sitting here talking about how we failed to find impact players with that pick. Beane (and you) keep talking about how they didn’t suck the year before Chase was in the draft so it’s not their fault they don’t have him. That’s true. What’s also true is that we had our own bites at the apple to find impact players at high value positions, i.e. pass rusher, CB, WR with high picks and failed to do so. We took a solid LB who was a disappointment, a bust OT/OG, and like the 4th best DT in the first round who no-shows in the playoffs. When we had comparable picks to the Bengals during their period of suck. They drafted stars at high value positions. We drafted league averages and busts.

It's not a good point. We had high picks in 2019 and 2 first rounders in 2018. Bengals took Burrow, Chase, Higgins when they had 3 picks in the top 38. We took Josh, Edmunds, Oliver, Ford when we had 4 picks in the top 38. It's literally the reason they have better stars. They nailed 3 of their high picks, and we nailed 1.