FireChans

How can I be ignoring those games when I included every game he’s played? Your solution to one set of data being incomplete is to make both incomplete? Incredible statistic work. We are comparing Josh’s numbers here. Last season compared to this season so far. Sorry I’m not cherry picking his first 11 games last year, you’re welcome to do so but that’s stupid. The only one “manipulating data” is you. I have posted the numbers from every game our QB has played in the regular season in the last two years. Sorry it doesn’t fit your agenda.

Why are you cherry picking 11 data points instead of 16 from last year? Josh’s passing statistics are his efficiency statistics. YPA, TD% etc. These are all efficiency statistics! I basically wrote in my OP that Josh’s stats are a little worse but he’s playing great and our offense is still great. Did you even read it?

Honestly that would require such a deep dive into variance to be statistically significant, I don’t have the effort in me to do it. Bar napkin style, you could look at trends in our point totals per game and compare averages but I just don’t know how valid it would be. Off the top of my head, I would say, like most posters have echoed, we really turned it on for the last stretch of 2020. In early games where we scored a bunch, like the Rams, our offense went to sleep in the second half which enabled them to come back. Allen’s statistics demonstrate that he is not as efficient as last year. This can be due to many different factors. Aaron Rodgers statistics demonstrate that he is not as efficient as last year. This can be due to many different factors. Both are still great QB’s. Should I start charging rent for how much real estate I have in your brains? Only on TBD is comparing every game available “manipulating data.”

You can say Allen is not as sharp this year because of the OL inconsistency. I wouldn’t even disagree. But he still isn’t as sharp this year. Why would anyone use less data points from 2020 to make a comparison? The more data points is better. Obviously, having both full seasons to compare would be great, but I don’t know the future. I can’t really add games that haven’t been played yet. Some of you are obviously threatened by statistics. The numbers may not tell the whole story, and they rarely do, but they also don’t lie.

Look at the photo! His TD percentage was 6.5% in 2020, that’s how. Yes, my “Josh is playing great and the offense is still great” thread is secretly designed to trash the team. When are you going to apply to the Hardy Boys to solve the next dastardly case?

I literally linked the stat page. I wrote this. It's all true. I'm sorry.

Yes it is. He has a worse completion percentage, worse TD%, worse INT%, worse YPA. It's why despite his "more yards per game" he has a passer rating ~8 points lower than last season. He is less efficient than last season, point blank, period.

Josh is unequivocally less efficient this year compared to last year. Across the board. I think that's the interesting thing. I would have bet money that our per-drive stats would have all been worse, but its incredible. how similar it is.

I completely disagree. You need to compare to the other teams in the NFL, otherwise, the numbers don't mean much.

The dude isn't even on the active roster what are you talking about.

So 2020 was a great offensive season by the Bills. Wonderful, exciting, electric, whatever you want to call it. We can all agree the 2021 offense has its moments where it feels like a continuation of 2020 and moments where it feels like we are back in 2019. But what do the numbers say? 1. We are actually better at running the ball this year. Last year, the Bills were 17th in attempts, 20th in yards, 15th in TD's and 20th in YPA. This year, we are 17th in attempts, 11th in yards, 9th in TD's and 9th in YPA. Some of this may be explained by Josh running a bit more (he's averaging 34 YPG compared to 28 last season, but on a similar number of attempts per game 6.4 to 6.3), but the fact remains, we are better at running. 2. We are worse through the air this year. Last year, 11th in attempts, 3rd in TD's, 3rd in yards, 9th in INT's and 4th in NY/A This year, 8th in attempts, 3rd in TD's, 7th in yards, 24th in INT's, and 10th in NY/A. A lot of this is Josh, statistically. He is across the board less efficient and more TO prone compared to last season. Still playing great, still one of the best young QB's in the NFL, but not 2020 Josh. 3. On the whole, we are not much different than last year. I have long held the belief that the best statistic to judge a unit to their peers is their "per drive" stats. Not as prone to confabulation due to the defense creating opportunities for the offense etc. Last year, Bills offense 2nd in score percentage, 15th in TO percentage, 5th in time of possession, 10th in plays per drive (an admittedly stat missing in utility due to scoring fast not being particularly bad), 4th in yards per drive, and 3rd in points per drive. This year, Bills offense 2nd in score percentage, 12th in TO percentage, 14th in time of possession, 10th in plays per drive (an admittedly stat missing in utility due to scoring fast not being particularly bad), 4th in yards per drive, and 2nd in points per drive. Outside of the huge difference in time per drive (which may be related to sheer number of possessions due to a great defense), we are still a very similar offense per drive. We score often, we are efficient, we get a lot of yards and we get a lot of points. Our TO% is actually better despite our INT number climbing, likely due to less fumbling overall. Conclusions? Josh is just not as sharp as he was last year, but overall he is still playing great football and leading a great offense, an offense that by the numbers is just as good as the one last year. The variance we are seeing from Josh is not really uncommon, even among the historically great. Last year, Aaron Rodgers threw for 48 TDs. This year, through 11 games, he has thrown for only 23, which will likely place him in the mid 30's as a season total trendwise. His passer rating is a full 17 points less this year compared to last year. The great QB's have good years, and great years, and insane years. We aren't in an insane year for Josh. We are in a great year. And our offense continues to remain great.

I don't think we are a team that can win ugly this season.

Stop talking.

Honestly, I was surprised at how well the second and third round pick in the 2022 NFL draft played today for the Broncos. Herbert could never get comfortable with those two rushing the passer.

He's 34th among RB's. LOL. And #1 in fumbles!

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/matt-breida-rushes-for-a-15-yard-touchdown-bills-at-jets Come on man! Look at this play! Think about how many 15 yard TD runs that the cinderblock feet duo have had, they easily score here too, despite defensive tackles outpacing them when they run outside.

Devin Singletary is currently 146th in the NFL in yards per catch. How is that for sample size? Anyone can see Breida is a way better pass catcher.

And here you are still posting nothing lol

Sick counterpoint. Did you do your homework for your first day back to middle school tomorrow?

Counterpoint: Breida averages 6.5 yards per touch. Moss averages 4.6, Singletary 4.7. Breida averages a TD every 9 touches. Devin averages a TD every 62 touches, Moss every 18 touches. To say that our two molasses boys “probably get through that hole too” when we have watched them get caught from behind for 2 years straight is laugh out loud funny. Breida is our best weapon out of the backfield. He doesn’t even know the playbook and he’s running circles around the other two goobers.

How does this make him Duke Williams?

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WillDu01.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BreiMa00.htm Your comparison sucked and you continue to embarrass yourself.

Duke Williams could not prove he was an NFL caliber player. Bad comparison.

Horrific comparison.