FireChans
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Posts posted by FireChans
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11 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:
Put Dat Prescott's roster around Dalton and he puts up Dak numbers for a discount, so, yes. And there won't be a "Dak at $30M".
That roster is already there. I don’t agree that Dalton at starter money is worth the downgrade, but fair enough. Especially when Dalton hasn’t thrown 30+ TD’s since 2013.
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Just now, GoBills808 said:
And what do you think imagine will happen w/ the Bills if Allen hits those numbers lol
Not #1 offense. Not win 14 games.
Also:
1 minute ago, FireChans said:Also not sure about where the 12 RTD’s came from. Would that be one of the best rushing TD seasons in NFL history by a QB?
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9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
So maybe like 3700 yards passing, 600 yards rushing, 28 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs, something along those lines to hit the overs right
That's total 4300 yards and 40 TDs
For reference, Jackson did 4333 total yards and 43 TDs for unanimous MVP
For reference, Lamar Jackson won 14 games and commanded the #1 offense in the NFL.
Also not sure about where the 12 RTD’s came from. Would that be one of the best rushing TD seasons in NFL history by a QB?
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46 minutes ago, Augie said:
No, the R. Wilson contract is pretty recent, and Dak can’t touch his ability. I’m not ignoring anything. I think QB is easier to replace than it was a decade ago. Kids prepare and are ready earlier. I feel you can’t cripple a team by being anchored in place with a HUGE QB contract for a slightly above average QB.
Look, I’m a guy who would let Bruce Smith sit when he wanted a new contract, right after getting a new contract. Dalton is NOT a $30 million drop off from Dak. Field a better team, win more games.
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Wilson is the most recent contract. It is the highest QB contract in the NFL.
You can believe anything about replacing QB’s but we went 25 years without a QB. It’s not as simple as “get another guy.” Dalton is signed to a backup 1 year deal. If they let Dak go next year, and then try to retain Dalton as the starter, he will demand starter money. Is Dalton at $25M better than Dak at $30M?
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56 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
Then parlay those w/NFL MVP
Then flush your money down the toilet. MVP lol.
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27 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:
You’re putting words in my mouth and taking what I said out of context. I didn’t say we are awesome. I didn’t even evaluate Josh Allen.
But if you want to go that route... Josh Allen made the plays he had to this year to get us to the playoffs, and with less on offense at that. He made the plays on thanksgiving. Dak didnt. Dak cost them that game and that’s a big deal because that’s Dallas’ day to own the NFL and even America.
Dallas has to have a guy that wins that game every year. Asides from the playoffs, it’s their most important game. Imo, he showed his true worth when he lost that game, the game against NE, and the game against Philly who had a decimated secondary. And guess what.. no way in hell hes worth that much.
Did you know that there was a season before last year?
17 minutes ago, Augie said:The biggest contracts should go to the best players, not JUST the most RECENT deals. Pay Dak what he wants and you can’t afford football players around him. I know the cap (historically, pre-Covid) rises and this may look cheap down the road. I don’t think he’s THAT much better than Dalton. I’m NOT paying him like he’s the best player in the league, because he’s not.
You’re ignoring the realty of the NFL and sports in general. The biggest contracts are always the latest. It’s the same with pitchers in MLB.
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21 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:
Well nobody said he doesn’t need to improve, but that’s quite a jump to say that he’s “mediocre” in TD% (since he was 18th in 2019) but “dreadful” in ANYA (where he was 23rd).Mediocre yes, he was below average. As for ANYA, yes he was 23rd which was worse than Case Keenum and basically everyone else below him in that stat is either a rookie, his contemporaries in his class or horror shows at QB.
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1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:
This is the exact reason I don’t follow closely power rankings and these ratings. I’m sure he’s a good guy, but this is silly given our tandem. We’ll see what he says at the end of the year once we are a top 3 running team in the NFL. I can’t wait to see Moss wiggle to huge yards like McCoy, and Moss to beat the absolute hell (sorry Mods) out of LBs. I can’t wait even though they won’t do it to have the old Jacked Up where Moss wrecks guys. Reminds me in a smal way our stud inside LB, Conan back then getting jacked up by Christian from KC. That guy was a man amongst boys. Too bad he didn’t last longer.
??
Its not like Zack Moss was the best RB in the draft. Why would any non Bills homer think this is “silly” given our tandem? What has Zack Moss proven? Besides being the fourth RB off the board or whatever.
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6 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:
The media keeps pushing the reason that the Bills are contenders now, is because Cry Baby has left the division.
BULL! The Bills could win the division even if he hadn't left.
I wonder if the reason for that has anything to do with the Bills record against the Pats, in the last few years as well as the last 20.
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3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:
Care to reference where you picked up that those two statistics were the most critical? Because I’ve seen studies that ANY/A and TD% were the two statistics most closely correlated with winning.https://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20114211/the-nfl-stats-matter-most-2017-offseason-bill-barnwell
Hopefully Josh continues to improve, because his TD% is mediocre and his ANY/A is dreadful.
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3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Hill and Kelce are superstars.
And I know what the Bills as a team that goes 8 for 80 with Beasley they are a 21 point offense. If we want them to be more than that it comes down to can they make maximum use of this elite weapon they have just added. It isn't a knock on Beasley or Brown. They are good players. But if this offense is going to take off then it needs to take off by using Stefon Diggs early and often. He needs to be the focal point of the game plan offensively and they need to have ways to get him touches.
I think the folks in Buffalo have gone so long without a good offense they forgot what they look like.
Stefon Diggs should not be used in this offense like John Brown was last year. He should not be gameplanned like Smoke was because players like Smoke, while a fine player, hits FA twice in 3 years, and players like Diggs get traded for 1st rounders.
Diggs is a weapon that the Bills haven’t had anything like in years. You don’t trade for a Stefon Diggs so you can target him 4 times for 36 yards. You trade for Stefon Diggs and your goal should be around 10 targets a game. You do this because with 10 targets, he will deliver 3-4 game changing plays. Because that’s what you paid for.
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2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:
See, there's a definitional problem here.
I have trouble calling any tight end a superstar, because tight ends, even one as good as Kelce, don't carry an offense. I'll give you that he's been excellent - four straight thousand-yard seasons, but he doesn't carry their offense the way you were saying that Diggs needs to. They don't force the ball to Kelce.
Hill is definitely not a superstar. He is a sensational player, but they definitely do not force the ball to him. They run plays to get him the ball, sure.
A superstar is a guy who can have impact even a bad team. If the Bills had traded a first, a fourth and a seventh for Hill, I would have been unhappy. Actually, I would have been unhappy if they'd traded that for Kelce, because Kelce would have had the impact on the Bills offense that I expect Diggs will have.
???
Tyreek and Kelce in 2018 had 137 and 150 targets respectively. Third highest on the list was Sammy at 55. About three times the targets as the #3 and they aren’t forcing the ball to them?
Kelce was also great with Alex Smith under center, who was never even close to as good as Mahomes.
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13 minutes ago, whatdrought said:
Even then, that's a 2 TD increase in passing TD gets you the over, right? Still seems like safe money if he's healthy.
Yeah that’s a really weak line. >21 is easy if he’s healthy.
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41 minutes ago, ganesh said:
The defense (psss especially) couldn't close out games last year after the offense took the lead. They gave up TDs. Browns and Patriots games come to mind
Steelers too. I remember all those TD’s Duck was throwing to Jordan Poyer. Oh wait.
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3 hours ago, billsfan89 said:
The Bills should be able to contend the rest of Josh's rookie deal. But beyond the next 2-3 seasons where the team can take advantage of not paying a QB the Bills fortunes longer term (The next decade plus) are going to rest on how good Josh is (how good McBeane can draft longer term too but Josh is the lynchpin.) If Josh is a top 5 QB by 2021 then this team will be in a decade of consistent playoff appearances and contention for a long time.
If Josh can't get past being a mid-level or even upper mid-level QB then the team will only contend in the short term when Josh is occupying a low percentage of the team's cap. So it all simply comes down to how good is Josh?
Well of course the level of QB play matters. But from a team building perspective, you have a few stages:
1. Rookie or cheap deal difference makers under contract. Positions like QB, LT, pass rusher, skill players who are mostly cheap. Usually have a lot of cap space.
2. Big deals starting to be handed out to maintain the positions above, may have to find some discount players to round out the roster.
3. Big deals at all or most of the positions above, have to shed salary in certain areas to maintain flexibility.
That’s without taking into talent, level of play, regression etc. The Bills are in the process of exiting 1 and entering 2. Ideally that is your Super Bowl window time. None of this is law or anything as we all know, like Nick Bosa on a max deal is better than Hughes on a discounted deal, but that’s the general idea.
1 minute ago, BillsVet said:Average or slightly above average overall talent typically delivers similar results. One can say there are no weaknesses, but what are the strengths? I would say the secondary is strong and the front 7 is stout. On offense, the receivers from 1-3 are very good, but the OL is relatively average or slightly above.
I'm not concerned right now about the cap situation in 2021 and beyond. They will be handing out large contracts if their home-grown players can shed their label of having "potential" to those regarded as legit outstanding talent. Who really cares what their cap hit is anyway? It's not like the league is rewarding teams for saving.
We shouldn’t be concerned about cap space going forward. We largely have our difference makers in key positions already set for our SB window. And that’s not talking potential. Diggs and White are proven. Dawkins is a good LT. We are missing a pass rusher but it’s not always a perfect formula. Then it’s just the QB left.
If Allen takes another step into the top 15 QB area, we will not be considered a slightly above average team without any weaknesses. We will be one of the best teams in the NFL.
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Just now, Mango said:
EJ left the field against the pats with just a few minutes left on the clock with the league. I think part of my frustration with the “Allen is almost there” crowd is a little bit of shaken baby syndrome with my past self with EJ.
Sure he largely didn’t play well enough, but he left the field with the lead. What a terrible 100 seconds against the Jags in London, but we still almost won the game. He was 2-2 when he was benched. Yada yada yada.
EJ reference aside. JA has shown more improvement from year 1 to 2 than EJ did. And has much better intangibles. The book isn’t written on him yet, but as a passer he hasn’t been good enough to date. He still may. Stats are on his side at the moment, but I am holding out hope.
Go Bills!
Exactly! That’s why it’s silly. You needed the contortion act to tell yourself EJ was better than he is. Allen’s career trajectory is already far better than EJ’s. You don’t need to contort yourself with these obscure stats and facts to have reasons to believe in him. Or to have doubt in him. We don’t have to come up with these inane and insane benchmarks that literally no other QB is held to in the league.
How many weird contextual stats about Dak or Trubisky or Darnold or Baker are thrown around on here outside of the normal ones? ZERO. No one is sitting here talking about how Baker left the field with a lead or Darnold’s record in games he started and finished. It’s just dopey stuff.
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34 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:
We watched the same game. The point here is really simple: they had a chance to win the game with a single score in the 4th quarter. Allen didn’t get the chance, which is why I made the statement about him being 10-4 in games he started and finished—which is true. I honestly don’t understand why there are a select few folks that are indignant over it.
They had a chance to win the game, and they didn’t. They were down a single score in large part due to Allen’s horrific play for 3Q’s.
The reason folks are indignant is because it’s a weird twist of facts to make Allen sound better which is WHOLLY unnecessary. You can argue Allen’s deficiencies and successes without being ridiculous. You are perhaps the only person to waive a loss from a QB’s record after he tossed 3 picks and sucked for 3Q’s because he got hurt. He didn’t even leave the field with a lead!
Brady got pulled in the 4th against KC in 2014 and Jimmy G finished out the game for him. It is a FACT that he was 12-3 in games he started and finished in 2014. That’s still a really stupid point to make.
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2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Yet they have been a constant underachieving team and total disappointment. I will believe it when I see it on the field for a sustained period of time. Already acknowledged they SHOULD be good in the short term. I dont see it long term and they have yet to even be good let alone a dynasty with a loaded roster.
So are you arguing that they haven’t drafted well in the last 5 years? Because that was your initial point, you didn’t think they will draft well to sustain success.
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40 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:
He put together a TD drive to get them back in striking distance and was putting together another deep drive when he got hurt.My point here is quite simple: there’s no reason to believe that he didn’t have a legitimate chance to win that game had he not been injured.
In between his TD drive and the drive he got hurt, he went 3 and out and threw an interception.
Did we watch the same game? This wasn’t the team starting to build momentum.
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On 5/18/2020 at 7:57 PM, Doc said:
Brown is better than Thielen. He's a #1 WR. Thielen will struggle in that role this year.
Yeah no. Thielen is a superior player. Not facing a CB1 every game is a bonus, but when Thielen was facing #2’s he was putting up 1300 yards. When John Brown was facing #2’s, he had one good year 5 years ago.
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8 minutes ago, BillsVet said:
Buffalo has accomplished this by:
1. Not pursuing big name UFA's (nothing wrong with that) and
2. Not finalizing a contract with a player they drafted.
The first likely will not happen under this regime and the second is almost guaranteed to occur multiple times over the next 2-3 seasons. There's still a lot of book to write about McBeane and whether they'll re-sign players to contract exceeding 12M per.
Bottom line is that cap dollars saved is not a metric that should be lauded too much. No one gets extra draft picks or wins by saving there.
That’s the point though. We are hardly an untalented team at this stage in the game, and we have very little large contracts. Our next 3 years should see this team continue to rise and not fall.
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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:
As I wrote in my post, I just cant see the Cowboys as a candidate for a "dynasty". Candidate for a near term Super Bowl, sure. Dynasty is multiple Super Bowls and with all the money they have invested in Copper and Zeke, plus they would have to invest even more in Dak...I just dont see who they can keep a competitive team for a sustained period to win multiple SB and be labeled a dynasty.
Add in that McCarthy struggled to win more with Rodgers (who is clearly quite better than Dak as Rodgers is one of the GOATS of his generation) because he could never field a complete team, especially on defense, and I just don't see them as a "dynasty" candidate. I think the defense is going to pay the price for all the money spent on the offense, and its likely to mirror the same fate of Rodgers and GB have had for most of his career. I expect Dallas to remain competitive for a while, but a dynasty is multiple SB championships and I think that is an uphill battle the way they are built and run.
The only way I can see Dallas having a shot at a dynasty is if they hit a lot on their draft picks on the defensive side of the ball every year. And does anyone really trust Jerry Jones in that regard, especially on defense? I just don't have that faith in him as a GM to find affordable talent consistently in the draft for that defense.
Other than that GB, your list is exactly the same as mine, except I have Bills at 3 and niners and browns at 4 and 5.
4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:Im just skeptical they can keep it in tact personally. And I think Jerry Jones is not a good GM overall and won't manage this team well. And I do agree McCarthy is better than Garrett who should have been fired a while ago.
The same things youre saying about the Cowboys were said about the Rams a few years ago...and now Rams are already seeing a down turn without winning anything as a result.
Jerry Jones loves shiney objects and I do not think he will manage a thin cap well at all. Again, talent is there on this roster, so not saying they cant be really good near term...conversation is about sustained dominance in terms of a dynasty. And I just don't trust Jones to pull another dynasty off.
You have your Dallas hate blinders on. Their team is almost entirely homegrown when it comes to key players and stars. They have their QB, #1, #2 and #3 WR, franchise LT and pass rusher. Combined with a couple other good OL players and two good LBers. Except for Cooper, almost of them were drafted by them. Dallas has done about as well as possible team building. Maybe they have a couple bad drafts and it falls apart but I really liked their 2020 draft and they have probably been one of the best teams in terms of drafting in the last 5 years.
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2 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:
I can understand a Jets fan with this opinion, as of TODAY, meaning presuming all progress for both QBs were to be frozen and they'd have reached their pinnacle, then I can see it. Otherwise, given Josh's monumental development from year 1 to year 2, and the belief he will take at least some semblance of similar strides, I think Allen is better.
Seeing as no progress is guaranteed, I’m not sure what this means.
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30 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:
He was a huge reason that we were behind, absolutely. He was also a huge part of why it was a 6-point game and we were heading deep into Pats****** territory when he got scummed.I think it’s plenty fair to say that a guy that thrived in the 4th quarter and RZ all season could’ve pulled that game out (as he did in Pittsburgh). Not would have for sure, but saying that he could have shouldn’t result in “rawwwr excuses!!1!1!1!1” type of backlash IMO.
It was a 6 point game because our defense was embarrassing Brady and the Pats. We held them to 224 total yards, 11 total first downs and 5-18 on third down. Our offense was 2-13 on third down. Our offense was dreadful. You should watch that game again if you think Allen was a huge reason we were in it.
2020 Josh Allen Prop bets with ProFootballTalk
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by FireChans
I mean, you should lay money on Allen O 40.5 TD’s then if that line exists. I think I’d rather not making Vegas rich again this year.
Josh had 600 yards rushing as a rookie and actually had less RTD’s so your explanation of 9 turning into 12 falls a little flat.