FireChans

lol the top WR salary was a percentage of the cap. Now you are getting into apples and orangutans comparisons.

He wouldn’t have gotten a salary of $1M in FA. I didn’t mention you could or couldn’t talk about anyone. Not sure what argument you’re trying to have. Except for Diggs who we did pay massively with his extension in 2022. You can’t even get the basic facts straight to have whatever discussion you think you’re having.

Cooper being traded for at his existing salary, which was less than $1M instead of being a free agent signing had EVERYTHING to do with how much he was paid by the Bills. I’m afraid you are missing the point.

Here are the 2nd round WRs since 2016: Sterling Shepard Michael Thomas Tyler Boyd Zay Jones Curtis Samuel JuJu Sutton Dante Pettis Christian Kirk Anthony Miller James Washington DJ Chark Deebo AJ Brown DK Mecole Hardman JJAW Parris Campbell Andy Isabella Higgins Pittman Shenault Hamler Claypool Van Jefferson Elijah Moore Rondale Moore Eskridge Atwell Marshall Watson Robinson Metchie Thornton Pickens Pierce Moore Mingo Reed Rice Mims now depending on your definition of bust, the rate may be 50% it’s hard to say. But some of the guys we may consider overall busts like Claypool had a productive season or 2 before washing out. FWIW, DK was pick 64

I’m not sure I get this logic. Dont you want your second round picks to be players who are good and valuable enough to command massive extensions? This logic would suggest that James Cook, if he walks after this year, was a better draft pick than DK Metcalf.

I’d like to see some supporting evidence that the dollar amount of WR overpays in FA over the last 3 seasons is equivalent to any other position sans QB. the Beasley and Brown contracts were in 2019. The NFL has changed a bit since then. Amari Cooper wasn’t a free agent. Diggs didn’t play a snap on the extension given to him in 2022, are you being sarcastic that it was worth every penny?

Yeah, those are the ones that significant contracts. The problem with “any position” is that WR is quickly becoming the second highest paid position. So an overpay or bad contract for a mid tier off-ball linebacker will hurt less than an overpay or bad contract for a mid tier WR. That’s the point.

I feel like drafting a second or third round RB every other year is a horrific strategy. Who would you rather have on a rookie contract? A top 15 running back or a top 30 WR? I was talking about Mooney….

No one loves flutie as much as they hate Rob Johnson

Fair enough. Here are the contracts that I believe were wild over pays the last 3 years. Allen Lazard 4 for 44M DHop 2 for 26M OBJ 1 for 15M Harty 2 for 9.5M Samuel 3 for 24M Gabe 3 for 39M Diggs 3 for 63M (technically less I know) Adams 2 for 44M Palmer 3 for 29M I wouldn’t have wanted the Bills to do any of these deals. Agree? These are the majority of big deals signed from 2023 to now. They are mostly bad. I think it’s a bad market.

Aieee. If Darnell Mooney had better QB play in 2023 and put up 800 yards and 7 TDs, would he have gotten more or less money than he did? Are we pretending like teams don’t care about production at all? Like I said, for the 10th time, obviously the evaluation for a player like Mooney went beyond his production. Otherwise he would have gotten less money.

Yeah, they were right, and the Jags were wrong. They could have been wrong and the Jags right. NONE of them knew it at the time. That doesn’t make the market any less wild for a guy with back to back 400 yard seasons. That’s Josh Palmer production. FWIW, I liked Mooney as an offseason target, and thought he would be overlooked because of how putrid Justin Fields is, but he got the same deal that a twice as productive WR on a Super Bowl contender got. To me, that’s evidence the WR market is kinda nuts. Maybe you disagree. That’s cool

No one said they just looked at yardage. what we both know they didn’t look at is what they did AFTER they signed the contract. Same thing with Ridley.

Of course they do. Usually, those projections are based on past performance at the time of signing. Not future performance that is completely unknowable at the time of signing. So saying Darnell Mooney got paid by the Falcons because he had a 1000 yard season with the Falcons is completely nonsensical.

I feel like there is. whats the line about having 2 of the top 32 pass catchers in almost every Super Bowl team? How many of those guys were signed in FA vs were drafted or traded for? Off the top of my head, guys like Hill, Brown, Kittle, Aiyuk, Smith, Kelce, etc etc. I’d imagine next to none of them were Josh Palmer or Curtis Samuel tier FAs that got their best seasons at the right time, right?

I didn’t realize all these teams knew what those guys were gonna do AFTER they gave them contracts lol. What a strange way to evaluate a market. If Brandon Beane had paid Palmer $30M AAV, maybe he turns into the next JJ.

????? Calvin Ridley got $23M AAV that offseason. Darnell Mooney got virtually the exact same contract Gabe did last offseason, coming off back to back 400 yard seasons. "single outlier?" Bah

Oh I'm not arguing about talent or the need for quality pass catches. I agree with trying early and often to get them. The problem I have is that Josh Palmer or Curtis Samuel have next to no chance to be in the top 32 of receiving options in 2025. Just like the story we were sold on having 5 #3 and #4 WR's with Mack, Claypool and MVS was last year. So I don't want to play in a market where we are dedicating 17M AAV (Samuel + Palmer) for what? Maybe ~700 yards and a handful of TDs? On the contrary, I would try to almost exclusively acquire WR talent from the draft. Maybe trade. Never FA. The WR position is a marquee position. The great ones are rarely hitting the market. There are a LARGE amount of overpaid bust FA WR signings. And IMO for a lot of them, the juice isn't worth the squeeze.

It’s funny you mention Barkley, the folks around here largely saw Saquon as a massive overpay by the Iggles last year. But that’s my point. Saquon for his dollar to impact amount was under valued last offseason. A guy like Gabe Davis was overvalued. Target guys like #1 and avoid guys like number #2. Let the Jags of the world overpay for middling WR talent while we target the underpays. If you say Cook isn't that guy, so be it. Maybe overpay a Jahmyr Gibbs or Bjian as the next "guy."

Fair points. The snaps/dolllars amount makes Khalil Shakir's 13M AAV deal comparable to the tops in the league though.

A lot of that SB run team is just overrated. I love Steve Tasker. Great ST guy. He is competing with Moorman for maybe the best ST player in Bills history. He is in no way a greater or more valuable Bill than Kyle WIlliams or Bennet.

That's not what I'm ignoring. It's why I'm trying to avoid. Paying a premium for a JAG because you need a WR in free agency. Overpaying for a Gabe Davis or a Curtis Samuel or a Christian Kirk or a Josh Palmer because of the market forces at WR feels like a mistake.

I think at this point, the Bills are not going to chase a $30M WR like DK while Josh is here. I would have less of a problem with an elite WR making elite money, but I think where the rubber meets the road is the "middle class" of WR's, that are also inflated relative to value. The 32nd highest paid WR is making $11M AAV. That's 4% of the cap. I can't easily pull the numbers, but in 2018, it was definitely less. John Brown was making like 2%. Personally, I would rather have Cook + OL and no Palmer. Just draft guys at WRs. FA WRs aren't worth it. See: Samuel, Curtis.

If Gabe wasn't paid big money, paying Cook that money isn't big money either.

He was paid more than what some folks think James Cook is worth. His contract was a top 5 RB contract.