FireChans

Of course they do. Usually, those projections are based on past performance at the time of signing. Not future performance that is completely unknowable at the time of signing. So saying Darnell Mooney got paid by the Falcons because he had a 1000 yard season with the Falcons is completely nonsensical.

I feel like there is. whats the line about having 2 of the top 32 pass catchers in almost every Super Bowl team? How many of those guys were signed in FA vs were drafted or traded for? Off the top of my head, guys like Hill, Brown, Kittle, Aiyuk, Smith, Kelce, etc etc. I’d imagine next to none of them were Josh Palmer or Curtis Samuel tier FAs that got their best seasons at the right time, right?

I didn’t realize all these teams knew what those guys were gonna do AFTER they gave them contracts lol. What a strange way to evaluate a market. If Brandon Beane had paid Palmer $30M AAV, maybe he turns into the next JJ.

????? Calvin Ridley got $23M AAV that offseason. Darnell Mooney got virtually the exact same contract Gabe did last offseason, coming off back to back 400 yard seasons. "single outlier?" Bah

Oh I'm not arguing about talent or the need for quality pass catches. I agree with trying early and often to get them. The problem I have is that Josh Palmer or Curtis Samuel have next to no chance to be in the top 32 of receiving options in 2025. Just like the story we were sold on having 5 #3 and #4 WR's with Mack, Claypool and MVS was last year. So I don't want to play in a market where we are dedicating 17M AAV (Samuel + Palmer) for what? Maybe ~700 yards and a handful of TDs? On the contrary, I would try to almost exclusively acquire WR talent from the draft. Maybe trade. Never FA. The WR position is a marquee position. The great ones are rarely hitting the market. There are a LARGE amount of overpaid bust FA WR signings. And IMO for a lot of them, the juice isn't worth the squeeze.

It’s funny you mention Barkley, the folks around here largely saw Saquon as a massive overpay by the Iggles last year. But that’s my point. Saquon for his dollar to impact amount was under valued last offseason. A guy like Gabe Davis was overvalued. Target guys like #1 and avoid guys like number #2. Let the Jags of the world overpay for middling WR talent while we target the underpays. If you say Cook isn't that guy, so be it. Maybe overpay a Jahmyr Gibbs or Bjian as the next "guy."

Fair points. The snaps/dolllars amount makes Khalil Shakir's 13M AAV deal comparable to the tops in the league though.

A lot of that SB run team is just overrated. I love Steve Tasker. Great ST guy. He is competing with Moorman for maybe the best ST player in Bills history. He is in no way a greater or more valuable Bill than Kyle WIlliams or Bennet.

That's not what I'm ignoring. It's why I'm trying to avoid. Paying a premium for a JAG because you need a WR in free agency. Overpaying for a Gabe Davis or a Curtis Samuel or a Christian Kirk or a Josh Palmer because of the market forces at WR feels like a mistake.

I think at this point, the Bills are not going to chase a $30M WR like DK while Josh is here. I would have less of a problem with an elite WR making elite money, but I think where the rubber meets the road is the "middle class" of WR's, that are also inflated relative to value. The 32nd highest paid WR is making $11M AAV. That's 4% of the cap. I can't easily pull the numbers, but in 2018, it was definitely less. John Brown was making like 2%. Personally, I would rather have Cook + OL and no Palmer. Just draft guys at WRs. FA WRs aren't worth it. See: Samuel, Curtis.

If Gabe wasn't paid big money, paying Cook that money isn't big money either.

He was paid more than what some folks think James Cook is worth. His contract was a top 5 RB contract.

The point is not overpaying for WR's, where there is imo massive inflation for actual value, and instead using that money elsewhere where we can take advantage of an undervalued position. Better than paying Gabe Davis worked out for the Jags.

That’s a good point. My counter would be that I believe there has been over correction in the market. So while I agree that you can’t pay top dollar at every position, I would ask what positions on offense do you think we are paying top dollar at? Josh. Our OTs. That’s it. suffice it to say, at this point, I think there’s better value in paying Cook over a Josh Palmer or Gabe Davis tier free agent. And I think the Bills get a competitive edge over a league that is throwing money hand over fist at guys like that by recognizing it first.

??? The salary cap is the driver of just about every major decision made by a football team. Having to eat Diggs cap hit is why our starting WR's last year were Mack Hollins and a second round rookie. The decision to pay or not pay James Cook is 100% solely based on the salary cap. You can't just ignore it. No teams do.

There was 1 NFL WR making what OBJ made in 2018. His name was OBJ. You made an apples to oranges comparison to prove WR inflation wasn't real. You were wrong. The highest paid WR in 2018 made 10% of the cap. The highest paid WR in 2025 made 14%. The top 5 WR's in 2018 by AAV made an average of 9% of the salary cap The top 5 WR's in 2025 by AAV make an average of 12% of the salary cap. That's the other issue with RB's. How many pretty good backs are on that list? It's hard to compete in a market flooded with supply.

OBJ was the market setting contract though. A better comparison would be Chase's contract, which is 40M AAV. All the way up to 14% of the cap.

There's some market inefficiencies to take advantage of here. First, let's set the stage: In 2018, the salary cap was 177M. In 2025, its 279M. In 2018, one of the best RB's of his era, Todd Gurley, who was second in MVP voting signed a massive extension. That extension was 4 years for 57M. An AAV of of $14M. 21M guaranteed at signing (with more guarantees later if he made the team). A record setting contract. Those numbers, TODAY, would make him the 4th highest paid running back in the league. So when we are talking about a Cook extension, and how that fits in the salary cap, just remember, he is asking for a little more than 2018 Todd Gurley money with a $100M more in salary cap space. Now, of course, other contracts have been inflated. QBs make more than ever. WR's make more than ever. Odell Beckham set the WR market in 2018. He signed a 5 year, 95M deal, with 18M AAV and 41M in GTD. in 2025, that would make him tied for the 20th highest paid WR, right next to Christian Kirk (who inked his deal in 2022). The guarantees are even close, with Kirk getting $37M over 4 years of his deal. So what conclusions can we draw from this? Nothing that we didn't already know. The NFL at large has decided that running backs aren't valuable and that WR's are crazy valuable. However, I would argue that this points to a strategy to take advantage of NFL decision-making at large. In a league where there is 1 winner and 31 losers, you don't want to follow the pack. I suggest the Bills SHOULD meet Cook in the middle if he would take $15M AAV. We don't have a WR worth $30M. We aren't sure we ever will, and we aren't sure that we would pay them even if we did. I would also suggest the Bills should NEVER pay a WR anything ever. There is no point in playing in a market where JAGs or good players are having their value this inflated. I don't know where the WR carousel ends, but I don't want to be on it when it does.

Dumervil was a VERY good player, a Hall of Very Good player. Unfortunately, he may be best remembered for the fax machine mixup in 2013.

I don't know what your criteria for playoff success is, but there haven't even been ten different teams to win a Superbowl since 2015.

I think another example is Goff and Stafford in Detroit. We all know the Lions have had far better team success with Goff. But Lions Stafford was an absolute force at QB for quite a while. i think if Lions are listing their all time great QBs, Stafford is above Goff. Despite not having the same team success. Because they all know he was better.

Probably like 100 bucks. whats one year when they probably wouldn’t anyway

If you can’t remember, you don’t need to commit. You get to experience the heartache forever blissfully unaware you sold it. Come to think of it, some Bills fan probably already took the money in 1963

Tasker too high, Kelly too high, Josh too low.

I’d take 500k on the condition that I lost my memory of the deal.