FireChans

I’m not worried. I just don’t want him to be successful. I hope he’s a bust, because if he’s great it sucks for us. Beane is hoping he’s a bust too lol. FWIW, Mahomes has had his IAY/A drop from 9.1 in 2018 to 6.5 in 2023. Part of that is Mahomes taking more short stuff because of the way he is defended, but also because of the loss of a great deep threat. If Worthy is good, I expect that number to be higher in 24, especially with Hollywood.

I think Beane is actually afraid the Bills are gonna be picking as high as 15 or so in 2025.

They could afford it. you are confused on the definition of could. I have linked it below to help. https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/could# They didn’t want to. Which is the point, as @HappyDays said. Your cute stat of 1/6th of the cap invested to WR notwithstanding (including a player no longer on the roster is by definition not an investment to the position on the roster). Besides, they had no idea they were going to trade Diggs in the summer of 23. They had just extended him, they clearly wouldn’t have done that if they thought they were gonna eat his cap hit in a season. Bad take palooza continues. Anyway, you were clearly a fan of the “spend the same cap space on bums like Harty/Sherfield to recreate Hopkins in the aggregate,” approach last year. They are trying the same experiment writ large this year, with the same predictably crappy results.

Hopkins cost $4M against the cap in 2023. Harty cost $4M against the cap in 2023. Sherfield cost $1.7M. Bad take palooza continues.

I am old enough to remember the same questions about Devonta Smith and his frame. Worthy wasn’t the same level of prospect and I think he’s even slighter than DeVonta, but Smith is a borderline WR1 in this league. Time will tell if Worthy is more Smith or more Goodwin. Either way, I mislike the idea of an elite deep threat on a conference rival. Hopefully he sucks.

Not even a no-show, in some of our losses they actively threw the game away. The Jets were cooked if the Bills just punted every drive. Who can forget the multiple turnovers before the half in Denver to let them get free points?

Wow, the Chiefs lost 5 of their top 8 games where their opponents rushed the most. The Ravens lost 3/4. It’s almost like teams run the ball more when they are winning. Shocking development. Somebody send a letter to the Bills brass to let them know!

So do you think we will have two top 32 producers next year? I think it’s possible, I don’t know about likely. We have only done it once in the last 4 seasons, and it was when Diggs was elite and Beasley was an All-Pro slot in 2020. Now, the corollary is that we don’t have a Diggs soaking up the lion-share of the targets, so is it possible that we have a 29th and a 31st with those extra targets? Absolutely. But as we saw with KC last year, even when one of those guys is a HoFer and and the other a promising rookie, they still had an average offense which imo is not good enough with a top 2 QB in football. We literally did this debate annually for the last few years. These folks coming out of the woodwork being like, “how could the Bills have avoided coming into the season with a cast of unproven and lotto ticket red flag WR’s???” takes are driving me insane.

Huh? Like it or not, turnovers matter. He can still be awesome and be a top 2 QB. No one says Mahomes’ TO’s are good, they are bad, just like Josh’s are bad. There’s no reason to pretend otherwise lol

first of all, Brown was here 1 year with Diggs when he was still an NFL player. Him and Bease were on retirement’s door by 21, which is why Beasley’s numbers dropped and Brown was cut outright. Brown and Beasley harm your point. They had to sign them back as retired corpses midseason because of how bad the WR room was otherwise in 2022. It was an obvious symptom.

What lmao. During Tyreek’s tenure in KC, they drafted another WR in the second. We did not draft a WR even close to that high during Diggs’ tenure.

Production is semi-dependent on their names though. There’s a reason bad players don’t get a lot of targets. Yes, on a terrible team, SOMEONE has to get some production, but usually the passing offense is still bad. Arguing that 5 Mack Hollinses would produce a good passing attack is absurd. We just watched Mahomes have the 15th best offense in the NFL, with superior coaching and superior talent compared to the 2023 Bills. The far more likely scenario is that Allen’s numbers start looking 2019-like despite him being 10x the QB he was then.

I can’t even. Using top 10 in the NFL as his benchmark but doesn’t care about comparison amongst the league. Legendary. @GoBills808 you got got buddy.

All we need is Brady to be Andy Reid 2.0 and Kincaid to be Kelce 2.0 and we too can have the 16th best offense in football.

We are living in a world where everyone universally agrees Tua and Brock are at best average and get propped up by elite weapons, but some also argue that weapons don’t really matter. Bizarroooooo

Huh? Are we back to TE vs receiver? Chiefs had Kelce and Rice in the top 32 (and the rest of their weapons were ass and they basically started over in their WR room because of it.) Titans had 1, DHOP. (The rest of their weapons were ass and they basically started over in their WR room because of it.) Packers did not have any in the top 32. Their offense was also 12th in the NFL and supports the point. Their #1 WR was a rookie. The Niners had Aiyuk and Kittle in the top 32. The Bills had Diggs in the top 32. So besides being completely incorrect, good point lmao.

I’m honestly confused at your point here. Are you of the contention it doesn’t matter if great QB’s have good weapons or not? The history of the NFL proves that not true. Patrick Mahomes last year had his worst year in the regular season of his career. He has a HoF coach and HoF TE. The TE played worse than his usual standards and the rest of his weapons were horrible and their offense was 16th in points scored. That’s average in the NFL but bad for a Pat Mahomes team. Is he not the guy or were his weapons kinda ass? The 2019 Pats team was devoid of offensive talent. It was Edelman and a bunch of nobodies. They finished 7th in points and 15th in yards. Had the #1 defense in the league. And they got punked in their first playoff game by the Titans. Brady had the lowest TD% of his career and an 88 passer rating. There were real questions if he was done. He went to Tampa and led the 3rd best offense in points to an SB win, posting the 3rd best TD% in his career and a 102 passer rating, his best since 2017. Was Brady not the guy, or were his weapons in NE kinda ass? Yes, someone is going to produce, because someone has to. But if the weapons are kinda crappy relative to the league, you are going to get a down year from your QB. I don’t expect Josh to throw for 2900 yards and 18TD’s. That’s impossible for a QB of his caliber. Could I see Josh with sub 30 passing TD’s? Yep. Could I see Josh with his worst passing metrics since 2019? Yep. Could I see the Bills offense be barely in the top half of the league when they have the second best QB in football? Yep. That’s really what folks struggle to see here. The Chiefs offense last year WASN’T GOOD. They struggled. They had the hardest path in the playoffs. That’s not the recipe for success.

Not having one would be catastrophic, but it would be the worst case scenario, just like the group being good would require the best case scenario. To have zero in the top 32 would mean that Kincaid ends up a bust, Coleman is a bust, and every other lotto ticket is a complete flameout or the entire group is basically hurt all year. If the Bills distribution ends up the way you have it there, I would expect a bad offense relative to our expectations and an early playoff exit in our future. And having a bunch of guys putting up top 40-50 production with Josh Allen throwing them the football would be reprehensible. That distribution is “one guy is better than Gabe Davis and everyone else is worse.” GROSS. I don’t want to see Josh have a regular season like Mahomes did last year. I don’t think that is the way to succeed, because we don’t have the horses to turn it on in the playoffs and we don’t have the defense like they did last year.

Here I thought the Bills lost in the divisional round last year because they didn’t outscore their opponent when they had the chance to, instead having to settle for a tying FG.

I like 32 because of the greater point it illustrates. you have arguably the best QB in football. if you surround him with guys who are high 30’s to low 40’s in talent, you should see around top 32 production. If you surround him with guys that are in the 60s or 70s or 80s, you won’t. John Brown managed to be 21st in yards in 2019. Beasley was 23rd in 2020. If these guys fail to crack 32 in 24 then it’s a complete failure on the organization to help Josh out.

Well, here’s what I’ll tell you. No team has made a SB with less than 1 in the top 32 in the last 4 years. Of the 8 teams that did make the SB, 6 of them did have 2 in the top 32. The exceptions? Tampa had #18 and #36 in 2020, with a weapons group of Evans, Godwin, AB, Gronk. The Rams in 2021 had #1 and #44, with Kupp famously having arguably one of the greatest individual seasons of all time in the NFL with 145 catches, 1947 yards and 16 TD’s. So unless we are as good as that 2020 Tampa unit or have a Kupp ready for a 2k yard season, we are probably not gonna be an exception to that statistic. Ok so no reason to discuss production. Yet you have the third most posts in this topic lol. See #1. Do you think there’s no correlation with points scored and the production of your offensive weapons? Did the Bills jump from 23rd in points in 2019 to 2nd in points in 2020 for no reason?

I was responding to a post about how KC had 2 receivers in top 32 last year….. Did you even read along with the conversation? If this is all meaningless discussion because we don’t know what offense Brady will run and he could run the mythical “4 WR’s and 2 TE’s all get 600 yards” offense, why are you even here discussing it? I will ask again, do you ever ask yourself what your point even is?

So you won’t make any kind of prediction because it’s just blowing wind and you don’t know what the offense looks like, but you do know my prediction of “maybe we won’t have two productive weapons in the top 32,” is wrong, even though you yourself admit that the ball is gonna be spread around and that will limit individual production by definition. lol. Lmao even. Do you ever ask yourself what your point is?

Do you think we’ll have 3 guys at 33? Sorry, you just kinda sound like one of those guys who complains but won’t actually make any kind of prediction on their own. If Kincaid has 900 yards and 3 other guys have 600+, we won’t get to 4500 passing yards lol.

You won’t commit to a prediction that 2 out of 3 top weapons will be in the top 32 of receiving yards next year. What is that except for an admission that we may not have 2 productive weapons next year? FYI, Kincaid was 56 in the NFL, Samuel was 65 and Shakir was 66. So I don’t blame you for refusing to commit to that take. But understand what that implies lol.