FireChans

What is your agenda-free take away from: Lots of busts and good players have achieved 500 yards as rookies. To me, the takeaway is clearly, then 500 yards as a rookie doesn't mean much. If your takeaway is that Keon is going to be excellent/suck because he had 500 yards, I think you have an agenda tbh.

So, what you are saying is that the lofty goal of around 500 yards as a rookie is basically meaningless. We agree.

Robert Foster averaged 20 YPC and 540 yards as a rookie too.

Rivers hasn't made the Hall of Fame and imo likely won't.

Its far less philosophy than you think. It's just throwing the ball less and running the ball more because you have bad WRs and good running backs. Which obviously works when you lean into your talent. The WR's in 2018 accounted for ~50% of the teams passing yards and 32% of the offense. Was that because of an "everyone eats" philosophy, or more likely an "everyone sucks" philosophy? You are telling on yourself a little bit saying "this team thinks they don't need to invest in good WR's because they have Josh Allen." But remember the point of our discussion, the team's record without Josh. Why did we previously invest all that into WR? Diggs, Brown, Beasley, Davis? To help Josh be successful. It stands to reason we all agree that was a good plan right? Get a bunch of weapons around a QB who hasn't yet proven to be an MVP/AP candidate to help him succeed? It worked, right? 2020 is, at worst, the second best year of his career? So why would the quality of targets not help the league average QB we are playing with? Conversely, wouldn't having poor weapons be a much bigger detriment with a non-Josh QB? Of course it would. Removing Josh from the equation and inserting a Stroud, what team has a better record? The 2020 or the 2024? It's not even close imo. The 2020 roster is probably easily a top 4 seed still. And that's simply the entire point.

The average HoF QB has 2 championships, 2 first team All Pros, and 7 Pro Bowls. Rivers has 8 ProBowls. Josh has 4 and an MVP. The MVP helped his case immensely but he still has some hardware to stack to get in imo. I liked Rivers a lot but him and Matt Ryan and Russ Wilson just fall short to me.

“A lot of room to grow” is code for “not very good right now but may be in the future” Every young player has a lot of room to grow. You don’t need a chart to spin that. You can spin that for everyone.

This is why it’s tough to draft contested catch guys. It’s just hard to make a living on those types of plays.

Coleman having a high percentage of contested passes basically means that he’s not open as much on his targets, FWIW.

I never said that lol Someone unclear on the definition of average

Friendly reminder they play more games now and the 2020 offense scored more PPG than the 2024 team. I personally think you overrating the Bills WRs and weapons in particular. James Cook is very good. Ty Johnson has some niche skills. Our “above average” tight end grouping has probably the worst contract on the Bills in Dawson Knox (a guy they recently almost cut outright). Hopefully, we never find out, but personally I think in a “contender off” with the Chiefs, Eagles, Niners, Lions, Rams, Ravens, we comfortably have the weakest roster outside of QB. And it certain comps, it’s not really even close.

We all know, do we need to be reminded every 2 seconds

Shades of Pats fans lording Brady over every other good QB in the league lol

Bills fans who pretend Lamar Jackson isn’t a good QB also pretend Cam Newton wasn’t a good QB

Man, did I just wake up in 2019? Is it too late to start buying Nvidia stock?

Oh no, I mean if Hurts is like the 5-10th best QB in football, there’s an argument that Brown, Devonta, Barkley and Goedert are ALL at least in that 5-10 range. He has the best offensive supporting cast in football.

Hurts has two things working against him. He may be the worst skill position player relatively on his whole offense. He may be the QB asked to do the least, at least among the best. Hurts has the backwards career arc. Usually, it goes young QB learning, stacking numbers/accolades, then finally a ring. I would argue that an MVP or 2 AP seasons would do more for his career stock than another Super Bowl ring, as crazy as that sounds.

I don’t agree, but the bottom line is that fan expectations of Keon are so high because the FO made them so high. If Keon was just another second round pick after 1 or 2 OTHER WRs, the expectations of him would be rotational player to starter. Instead, Beane and co basically made him the only true egg in the basket. And that means that fans are not just going to expect a solid or okay player, but at least a very good or great player.

Okay list all the nfl teams that you think have worse WR groups than the Bills. I will expect a definitive answer of AT LEAST 13 to consider us decent/average.

No I think it’s a reality. The WRs are actual garbage league wide. The amount of offschedule plays that Josh makes that makes his receiving options and his OL look good is criminally underrated imo. Those plays largely end up the difference between winning or losing games like the Colts game. 4 win team without Josh. I stand by it.

Not even just that. The Bills offense was the best in the NFL in the turnover category. If they drop to top 10, which would still be very good, the defense would be even more horrific. The reason Josh won MVP is because he carried a lackluster offense and a bad defense to 13 wins. That is THE reason he won, with lesser stats than other QBs.

You lost me entirely on the defense. The 2024 Bills defense were 11th in points allowed and 17th in yards allowed, true. But on a per drive basis, they were horrific. 5th best starting position, but 25th in time allowed, 23rd in plays, 26th in yards allowed, 18th in points allowed. Along with a truly ghastly 3rd down % that was 29th in the league, and a RZ% that was bang on league average at 16th. The 2024 defense was a function of the offense shortening the game, playing more ball control, and thankfully, being so hyper-efficient in some blowouts that it made the defense just one of the worst in the league rather than THE worst in the league. And we all know who that was thanks to, the guy who won MVP for dragging that offense to those heights. Mack Hollins led the team in TDs. 4 win roster without Josh.

Holy smokes. YOU brought up Diggs. I never said Diggs was a bad trade. Not once. I never said Diggs wasn’t anything but a great trade. But that’s what he was, a TRADE, not a free agent. A player of Diggs quality at 26 or 27 years old doesn’t hit FA. You don’t get a chance at that type of player, WITHOUT TRADING FOR HIM, unless you draft him yourself. You get chances at Brown’s, Beasley’s, and more recently, Samuel’s, Hollins’ and Palmers’. No one is saying the Bills are doing it all wrong, or that the offense sucks or whatever arguments you are dreaming up. You didn’t just make 2 mistakes. You make a mistake every post because you don’t understand the discussion and are just trying to win argument with yourself lol.

lol the top WR salary was a percentage of the cap. Now you are getting into apples and orangutans comparisons.

He wouldn’t have gotten a salary of $1M in FA. I didn’t mention you could or couldn’t talk about anyone. Not sure what argument you’re trying to have. Except for Diggs who we did pay massively with his extension in 2022. You can’t even get the basic facts straight to have whatever discussion you think you’re having.