FireChans

Multifactorial. And some not his fault. Inconsistency and talent- fans HATE players that can play at a high level one week and disappear the next. Give me around 4 and 40 every week than a 2 TD 120 yard game one week and a goose egg the next. He’s also the same player he was in 2020. Gabe’s fault. mental mistakes - there’s enough of a lowlight reel of Josh throwing bad balls and picks because Gabe isn’t where he expects. This may not be all on Gabe, but it’s seemingly only him a majority of the time. So I’m going with Gabe’s fault. Expectations of a WR2 in a Josh Allen offense - Really, what folks want is a WR2 without the problems above, which is really like borderline WR1. Lots of folks have been clamoring for upgrades to the boundary WR position for 3 years. Beane and the FO have trotted him out as the presumptive starter to the chagrin of many, as Gabe has no elite traits and puts up counting numbers because of his target share (which mercifully trickled off this season). Not Gabe’s fault. Gabe Davis is another classic “good but not good enough” Buffalo Bill. Roster is filled with these guys.

I think that Beane has been guilty of flip-flopping team building philosophies trying to meet in the middle, sometimes even in the same draft. Our top picks, too often, have been where need meets BPA. Which is fine sometimes, but sometimes you pass on better talent to fill more pressing roster holes. Like Boogie Basham, whose ceiling was a JAG level player. In the later rounds, Beane has done extraordinarily well at just targeting guys that can play, which is why we have a solid hit rate on players who are NFL caliber, if not superstars. For me, the Kincaid pick wasn’t that safe. To draft ANOTHER TE when you just gave your developed 3rd round TE a big contract is actually risky. It’s targeting the best player left on your board and expecting the coaches to make it work (shout out Ken Dorsey on that regard). The Torrence pick to me was clear as their annual “BPA meets need” pick and it worked out so far so all’s well that ends well. But once Saffold predictably played awful in 2022, you knew IOL was coming high. In the NFL draft, you can be right for the wrong reasons and wrong for the right reasons, and the ultimate barometer is not said and done until about 3-4 years after. Even the Chiefs took CEH in the first, a colossal blunder. They won two Superbowls after so who cares? But the process was clearly wrong there imo. Beane’s FA philosophy early in his career was bargain bin shop a handful of guys, and whoever panned out was the starter, and he would cut or trade away the rest, particularly on OL. That gave him a lot of draft flexibility. Now we are dealing with a much tighter cap, and he can’t do that.

Hm, I don’t think so. I think the homeruns CAN come from anywhere, but I gotta figure your best chance is still in the first 60 picks. To me, Benford, Bernard (so far), Shakir are all good picks. It’s great to get NFL talent in the late rounds. None of them are homeruns. To me, a homerun is “would this player have been a great pick no matter what round you took them in.” Milano was a homerun. He’s a more impressive homerun bc he was a fifth rounder, but if he was a late second rounder, he’d still be a phenomenal pick. If you look at the difference between us and KC, or the Niners, they have way more homeruns, not just solid picks. It’s the one black mark against Beane. The best year of players this regime has brought in was unquestionably 2017. White, Milano, Dawkins, Poyer, Hyde have been 5 of our 7 best players for 7 years. It’s why the roster is old. It’s why the cap needs to be stretched now. Greg is just another guy we hoped could be one of our best players but isn’t.

Diggs was drafted in 2015 in the fifth round. Justin Jefferson was drafted 22nd overall. Pro-personnel and college scouting is such a different can of worms, I don’t think Diggs should be included there. Either way, as you say, too many doubles and triples instead of homeruns. And Greg is in that bucket.

I feel like I made a very strong case in the OP that Groot is clearly not a bust, but may not be the top tier edge rusher we need. Ultimately, being a good run defending DE is exactly what Shaq Lawson made his career on, and he walked in FA as well after his rookie deal. And the teams that paid (read: overpaid) regretted it because he wasn’t a difference-maker. Devin Singletary was also a “successful” draft pick, but there’s clearly something missing from our player acquisitions because these guys aren’t difference-makers. And all you do is fan-shame lmao.

You don’t have to be anything you don’t wanna be. If you are happy with “Groot” and his 5 sacks, that’s fine.

Meh. I'm sure Oliver got some favorable matchups and just failed to make an impact. Stars make plays.

He played more snaps this year than ever in his career IIRC.

Dawkins is our best OL man. You think that’s the most favorable matchup for Chris Jones? I mean, I could see you saying that if he toasted Spencer Brown. The bottom line is our highly paid player lost his rep to their highly paid player. Exactly what happened with Eddy all game. I don’t think Veach is a magician either, I think the Chiefs have gotten very lucky and drafted some great players. Just like the Seahawks did when they drafted Russel Wilson and Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman etc etc. Trey Smith would be a great guard anywhere. Humphrey would be a great C anywhere. I firmly believe there’s an HUGE element of luck to drafting personnel. Look at the Seahawks, I don’t think they have gotten as many great players in the last 10 years as they did from 2010-2012. The bottom line is Dawkins is paid lots of money to make plays. He didn’t. Ed is paid lots of money to make plays. He didn’t. Rousseau doesn’t make a lot of plays and is about to make lots of money, im not sure if he should. For whatever reason, the Chiefs find dudes who get the job done. And that’s why they have All-pros everywhere and dudes who are gonna get PAID, like Sneed.

Fair enough. Talking strictly in the regular season, it concerns me that Greg, a physically dominant specimen and first round talent in year 3, can’t separate himself from old vets like a Leonard Floyd or guys like AJE.

There are only so many sacks to go around which is why the top 4 team in sacks didn’t sack Mahomes once in the postseason? This is the argument? As far as Ed is concerned, he was also a no show in the playoffs. The Bills need to get players who can make high level, game-changing plays if they want to be anything better than 4th best. The only defender that made a spectacular play was Poyer and he’s 100

Better player. 10.5 sacks in a season? That’s like 2.5 Rousseau years

I guess sort’ve? I’m a big believer in stars winning Superbowls. I don’t think the Bills have enough stars. Rousseau, much like Edmunds, was a guy with superstar potential who is not yet a superstar. You can make that a referendum on whoever you wish. I simply don’t think Chris Jones elevates in the postseason because of Spags. I think he is just a dawg. And we don’t have any. this man hits the nail on the head. why are the Bills consistently a good but not great team? Too many good but not great players, period.

Everything we talk about is a fruitless exercise, unless @DrDawkinstein is secretly Brandon Beane. Not only do you not understand the thread, I’m afraid you don’t understand message boards in general. I’m not sure we do. There’s no coaching explanation for why Ed was able to have such a great year, a career year, and then get erased by the KC IOL (who are great). They were just better than him, all night. I thought the KC OT’s were their biggest weakness going into that game, and yet Groot was a ghost. Also not good enough.

“Mildly better than Kingsley Jonathan,” is not the trump card you think it is.

Just Josh. Maybe Milano. Which is why I am nervous about overpaying good players to get 6 sacks in the regular season.

James Cook had 5.6 yards per touch. Derrick Henry had 4.5. James Cook had 200 more yards from scrimmage on 27 less touches. James Cook had a better catch percentage than Derrick Henry, 81% to 77%. James Cook had 1 less first down than Henry, 69 to 70 (again with 27 less touches). James Cook had 10.1 yards per catch, Henry had 7.6. James Cook had more 20+ gains rushed than Henry, 6 to 5. They run differently, and I think the world of Derrick Henry (despite thinking RB is relatively useless) but there are a lot of stats that demonstrate that Cook was a more productive back last season. I would still take Henry I think and we would have the best RB room in football.

The topic isn’t about if he’s “going anywhere.” Imagine complaining about a topic you misunderstood lmao

If you don’t want to read TBD and the “meaningless chatter” in the off-season, there’s a big red X in the top right of the screen.

I’m kinda not as interested in paying big money to players who don’t show up in big moments. $40M+ cap hit on the DL in 26 for Eddy and Greg to not breathe on opposing QB’s in the postseason? Woof.

The Edmunds comparison continues to grow.

The concern is what “good players” cost. Greg’s fifth year option is going to cost $13M. Danielle Hunter (a more productive but older player) is projected to get $20M AAV. What will Greg get the year after? Do we pay Rousseau $20M a season to be a “good player?”

I liked Greg a lot coming out of college. Great physical traits with a lot of room to grow or low floor/high ceiling has been the Beane MO and I think it’s the right one. Josh, Edmunds, Rousseau, Elam have all fit that mold and when those players do hit, the benefit is that they are supposed to hit big. But obviously we have been hit or miss in that first round. And perhaps even more bothersome, they have not hit “big” except for Josh. Edmunds is an NFL player but he wasn’t the defensive All-Pro they thought he was going to be. And Rousseau seems to be going that same road. I have this debate all the time on here about players “who can be 8-10 sack guys.” 8-10 sack guys are INCREDIBLY rare. It’s not very common for 6 sack guys to just become double digit sack guys because they play more or anything else. And Greg is that perfect example. He played 3 more games than last season and had 3 less sacks. He played more defensive snaps than he ever has in his career and a higher percentage of snaps. And his year was just… alright. But anyway, besides that, we are running into the Edmunds problem where the fifth year option decision is coming. I would assume Greg is going to play on it, but based on his production, are we sure he is going to get an extension? Or is he going to be an Edmunds, where we let a solid player get overpaid by a bum franchise because the juice isn’t worth the squeeze?

Calling Greg Rousseau a pass rusher is quite generous. they should really label him a great edge setter.

Because they are 150 Ty Johnson’s out there and they are barely JAGs?