FireChans

I was really not impressed with Caleb last season. he had stretches where he was refusing to throw the ball. I hate that in young QBs, imo it’s much better for them to throw it all over and make mistakes to learn from than be afraid to make mistakes. Now he had garbage coaching so who knows. But I agree that Drake’s stock is up. I think if the Bears called the Pats and offered a swap, they wouldn’t consider it. Bo Nix is a better athlete and has a better arm, but his rookie year gave me Mac Jones’ rookie year in NE vibes.

What

I rest my case.

I would let @GunnerBill and @gonzo1105 pick. I would consider the ghost of @thebandit27 eligible as well. I would not let any OSU alumni pick, we would end up with a roster of JT Barretts @Kirby Jackson/ @YoloinOhio

Considering Coleman, Bishop and Carters contributions last year culminating in a AFCCG appearance, I am of the opinion that whiffing on 3 picks or whiffing on 1 player costing 3 picks CONTINUES to make our floor the divisional round of the playoffs. There’s virtually no risk. The risk is not doing enough to get to a Super Bowl. That’s the ONLY risk. Another line of thought is trading for a good player that shakes loose. Less risk than a rookie.

Brady may not be here in 2026. Problem with this thinking is that Shakir’s walk year was after 2025. Drafting a McConkey to compete with Shakir snaps in 2024 and 2025 is certainly a strategy, but I think both are just less productive. Ultimately though, the Bills didn’t decide to pay Shakir last year. They decided it now, on a team where he’s honestly the only receiving option worth a damn, looking at a relatively weak WR draft. It’s a problem of their own making, but what else are they gonna do? Put another way, if Keon had 1200 yards and 10 TDs last year, I’m not convinced Shakir gets paid.

You’re arguing with the voices in your head again

Sure but also Tre’s bad tape out there from 2024 hurt his market, right? I don’t mind taking the risk because it’s pennies, but the reason it’s pennies is likely because there’s no bidding war for Tre’s services. dont tell @4merper4mer but it’s the same reason Von isn’t on a team right now. Hope he can regain form here. Would be a huge boost.

Do you know how much work it is to get to Benford's pick and cross-reference it with the consensus list and what players were and were not available to pick? It was painful enough doing rounds 1-3 where I had a vague idea where everyone went.

Bro, he was so bad in LA, they traded him for a 7th round pick swap. That's less than what we got for Elam lol. What would you have called his play in 2024? I'm not even trashing Tre. I just said we are taking the same lotto ticket risk the Rams did. Maybe he was too early in his recovery. Maybe not. The Rams clearly thought he had a shot to not be washed or they wouldn't have paid him to play last year. I said this doesn't impact our draft plans, because a high level rookie will either need to beat out Tre, and if he can't, he's not ready to play anyway. Adjust the chip on your shoulder ffs. You wouldn't be crying crocodile tears for Joe Smith either. I'm not convinced he makes the team, although I am hoping he comes back to All-Pro status. What a devil I am lol.

I mean sure, it's been longer since the injury. That's why I said "later in the process." We are still hoping he can regain some of his form, after having a limited market after injury and poor play post-injury, right? I'm sure there's some argument of what is riskier: Guy A who was playing well pre-injury but hasn't played since Guy B who was playing well pre-injury but was a disaster post-injury, but it's been longer since the injury To me, the situations aren't that different at all.

They saw a former All-Pro who was a Free Agent after multiple injuries and gambled that he could return to form. Isn’t that what we are doing, just later in the process?

I think if you watched every snap of their rookie years back to back, you'd be hard-pressed to tell me there's any kind of gap between Maye and Caleb. Caleb has pedigree and draft status and I don't mind folks taking that into account when discussing their preference, but I don't think any of that showed up on the field their first years. JMO.

Hm, really? I think Maye looked better than Caleb at spots. Caleb had a little EJ afraid to trust his eyes with a pretty good supporting cast. To me, the rookies were Jayden Daniels, then probably Bo by virtue of team success, then everyone else. And it wouldn't surprise me AT ALL if Drake ended up being QB2 from that class.

Best way to catch a sleeper stud outside of blind luck is target players who for reasons other than talent drop. Its not necessarily an ideal option and there's lots of good reasons to not do it, but that's how teams got Tyrann Matheiu in the 3rd, Tyreek in the fifth etc etc.

I mean, if they thought there was 0% chance he could play, I agree. But they just brought back Micah last year to be around the guys.

Yeah, I think paying running backs is overall a bad team-building strategy. So I don't think it's a good idea to pay running backs as a rule. lol. Isn't internal consistency a form of logic? Is it logical to say "I think paying running backs is a bad strategy, but here are the 20 current running backs I would pay?" Or is that "illogical?" Maybe we can ask Travis Henry what he thinks.

FWIW, I wasn't trying to draw any comparison between Cook and TH. It was more to point out that specific poster has a downright annoying 20 year playbook of saying "facts and logic." With a healthy dose of ad hominem if you don't follow his opinion, because it's "illogical." No one "knows" if its a good idea to pay Cook or not. There are good and bad arguments both ways. Folks pretending otherwise can make you look silly, especially when you say nonsense like "More than illogical, irresponsible suggestions really: (I hope none of those calling for such illogical moves runs a business!!!)"

The Shanny tree may be single-handedly holding back the QB market. Guys like Tua, Darnold, Purdy, all had close to “reset the market” numbers and none of them did due to the scheme/talent getting more credit than them lol..

I'm actually okay with it? I think they just need to structure NIL in a way where dudes can't jump ship every second. But I have no problem with players gambling that they can get more on the open market, and I have no problem with that strategy succeeding or failing.

Meh. he got a contract that I suspect is full of a ton of incetives. He was dumped by the team that signed him for a 7th round pick swap. The reality is that Tre is a depth guy now. I think he knows that. Certainly he played his best ball in Buffalo. He's part insurance part "maybe he regains some form". Nothing more. This doesn't impact the draft at all imo.

If we draft an early CB that can't beat out Tre White's ghost, then it was a wasted pick anyway.

Everyone drafts busts or disappointments though. If Beane and his team couldn't evaluate talent, I don't think we would have as many quality day 2-3 picks. That's why I disagree with @GunnerBill and @HappyDays. I think Beane's problem is that in round 1-2, his eyes go wide and he presses for needs. As the draft develops, he sticks more to his evaluations independent of needs and generally does better (compared to the rest of the league). To me, it makes no sense that Beane can somehow identify the large number of late round contributors he finds, but fails to apply that ability in rounds 1-2 UNLESS there's another factor driving his decision-making.

The really story of that graph is how far to the right the Ravens are. Just constantly getting value out of consensus players.