Wraith
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Posts posted by Wraith
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The OP forgot to mention that EJ actually caused Sammy Watkins to injure his ankle yesterday with that horrible, horrible TD throw. How convenient that he left that little morsel out. EJ injures his own teammates.
Aaaaand this is why there won't be any constructive discussion on this subject. Multiple people seem to think that the 30 yard touchdown pass, thrown on the run, was so horrible it caused an injury because it required the receiver, who was lightly jogging, to plant his foot (!!!!). Oh the horror. Do you people actually watch other football games? Completely unreasonable expectations.
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a 100% EJ is better than a 75% TT.
Yes.
I love that Taylor is a gamer and will try to gut it out, but without his legs our passing offense is going to be very simple and easy to defend. Jeremy White hit on something during his All-22 review this week, that the Bills do not pass into the middle of the field. I believe he counted 4 pass attempts that went past the line of scrimmage and weren't to the sideline.
The data backs that up. The split stats on ESPN have passing by area of the field (Left sideline, left, middle, right, and right sideline). Taylor passes waaaay less to the middle than either Kyle Orton last year or E.J. Manuel the year before. He passes to the left sideline 40% of the time, which is about double the rate at which the other two do. See the chart below (which lumps "left", "middle", and "right" into middle while leaving the sidelines unchanged.
About 20% of passes that Manuel and Orton threw to the middle of the field go to the left sideline instead, this year. Whether this is on Taylor (unable to see as well to the middle due to height?) or the design of the offense (Manuel and Orton's data comes from the same OC while Taylor's obviously does not) is not knowable. But, that is a biiiig difference. If the Bills pass 30 times, that is six throws going to the left sideline that used to go to the middle of the field.
With Taylor's scrambling ability, the defense still had to respect the middle of the field. All of his big runs start up through the middle before going to the sideline. Without it, our passing game is likely to be very limited unless the Bills offense can dramatically change their M.O.
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What's even more impressive is that Taylor is averaging the highest "Air Yards" per attempt in the NFL at over 26 yards per attempt. Funny that right after CBS posted this stat, he tosses his 38 yard TD to Hogan...
For him to be throwing the ball that far in the air and for his completion percentage to be over 72% is REALLY REALLY good.
That stat was not accurate. CBS probably knew it, considering how fast they pulled it without actually speaking to it. Think about what a 26 yard air yard average would be: 260 yards through the air on a QBs first 10 attempts, plus whatever yards come after the catch. Believing a QB is averaging 26 air yards/attempt is just silly.
Through week 2, Taylor was in 3rd place behind Ben Roethlisburger and Carson Palmer with 6.69 air yards per attempt. Still very good and I would expect that number to go up after this week is tabulated, as there was almost no Trent Edwards in Taylor's game this week.
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Tyrod scored 5 touchdowns. How many QBs this year scored 5 in one game? Only on TBD is this problem.
Not familiar with the concept of score effects, eh?
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He's the worst player on the roster. He took the torch from Lee Smith and is running with it.
....very slowly.
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I said it after that Chargers game. Nobody could have predicted the Wilson hit would affect him like it did.
You are aware that the Wilson hit occurred before the Chargers game, right?
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Sadly I think he's even worse at hockey. I'm pretty sure he was talking up Hodgson mid last season.
Coller has driven me crazy this summer talking about our QB situation, but he actually nailed the Hodgson situation early on. Here's an article he wrote about Hodgson's terrible defense.
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I think he meant that those contracts would likely be off the books heading into 2016. I don't think he expects them all to be cut/traded now.
Yup. Still an odd statement because a few of them are likely to be valuable contributors who the Bills would like to resign (I'm thinking Harvin and Lawson, for example).
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I think that you just brought up what most of the "let's start EJ" guys are missing. Historically, the guy doesn't move the chains well enough.
Got any data to support this claim? I don't recall an exceptional number of three and outs or failed drives in general relative to the league.
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EJ DREAMERS ALWAYS GONNA EXAGGERATE HOW WELL HE'S LOOKED IN PRESEASON GAMES...
It's hilarious how bad you are at keeping up the "I'm just a realist" facade.
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The shooter is not dead yet. In critical condition from a self-inflicted gunshot wound. Being helicoptered to a trauma center now.
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I was just gonna write about this. I can't believe I actually watched the video. I'm disgusted with myself and sick to my stomach. I really wasn't sure what I was watching at the start but at the end I wanted to puke.
I will be having nightmares about this.
RIP to the victims.
I am grateful that I didn't actually watch it.
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The madman recorded the shooting from his perspective and posted it to Twitter.
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1) I think the Bills should, and will, keep all of the big three.
2) I'd like to point out how terrible the local media pack (and national guys like Rodak) has been when it comes to covering our quarterback situation. I live in Rochester and have been to many training camp practices over the years, including three this year. After all three, I've come home to read about how terrible the quarterbacks have been and it just has not matched up to what I've seen. Then the games start and all three quaterbacks have played very well. I swear the few reasonable members of the media group must be getting group thinked by the louder, stupider ones, of which there are many.
3) I chose "Too early to tell" because I would be fine with either Taylor or Manuel at this point. Anybody but Cassel. I knew Taylor had good wheels but I have been impressed with his ability to manage the game with his arm. He doesn't appear to be any worse than Cassel when it comes to managing the game but has the added threat with his legs. I have been disappointed by Taylor's arm strength however, which appears to be even worse than Cassel. He has hit on a few intermediate throws using good timing and accuracy but there isn't much margin of error due to the lack of velocity. I am also worried about how effective Taylor's running will be in the regular season, either due to defensive strategy or injury.
Manuel has really impressed me with his accuracy. If we want a consistent intermediate or long range passing game, it's going to have to come from Manuel. He's not a threat with his legs the way Taylor is but is far more mobile and elusive than Cassel. He is starting to really remind me of Roethlisburger from a style perspective. The only negatives I've seen from him during the games is his accuracy on the run outside the pocket. This has been partially offset by his ability to be elusive within the pocket, where we've seen him evade the rush, reset, and deliver accurate throws multiple times.
Based on this, I just don't see a reason to play Cassel. Yes, they can have regular season success with him but they're going to need one of the young guys to develop into something more than that by the end of the season to be a threat in the post-season.
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Does anyone remember Russell Wilson coming into the Ralph in Dec a couple of years ago? His small hands really hurt him, eh.
That game was in Toronto. In a dome.
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For more detailed responses, see below...
Matthew Stafford absolutely sucked at Day 1 (and Day 720-ish).
Warning: Actual Data for Making Comparisons
The data set linked to is all Quarterbacks, through their first two seasons, from 2005 through the present day, who were good enough that their teams started them 8 or more times (or 25% of the 32 team games). The total list is 52 quarterbacks.
There are a variety of quarterback summary statistics to choose from in the table. I advise you to sort the table by one of them and check out the results.Comparing E.J. Manuel to the field, and specifically to Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford, shows that Manuel has started out his career average/slightly above average while Bradford and especially Stafford were horrendous.
Below are the rankings for each of the three (versus the 52 man field) in this order: Completion percentage, QB rating, Yards/Attempt, Adjusted Yards/Attempt (summary metric that factors in interceptions and touchdowns), and Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt (another summary statistic that factors in interceptions, touchdowns, and sacks).
Manuel vs. 52 man field: 22nd, 20th, 29th, 24th, 24th (14 games)
Bradford vs. 52 man field: 27th, 31st, 43rd, 35th, 35th (26 games)
Stafford vs. 52 man field: 37th, 43rd, 45th, 46th, 42 (13 games)
Check out Matthew Stafford's proximity to J.P. Losman on most of those lists.
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Speaking of the Patriots cheating, am I the only one who retroactively wondered about the Nate Solder touchdown reception after the Patriots were penalized later in the game for the wrong lineman reporting as an eligible receiver? If I remember correctly, the penalty occurred because lineman #71 reported as eligible but lineman #77 went down field instead.
It made me wonder who reported as eligible during the scoring play and what the officials announced. The fact that #77 and #71 are about as similar looking jersey numbers as you can get from two offensive linemen came to mind as well. These are the kinds of things you have to worry about when playing the Patriots, it seems.
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How about Kyle Orton himself, who had a completion percentage of 55.3% over his first 33(!) games spanning three seasons?Payton had a completion percentage of 56.7 as a rookie, but was allowed to let it rip and threw 575 times. He had a ton of yardage and a ton of TDs but had more INTs than TDs. His avg yds per pass was 6.5
In 16 games EJ had a completion percentage of 58.6%, only threw 437 times, but had more TDs than INTs. His average yds/pass was 6.4
I don't think Ej will be Payton, but I think what people are saying is that you can't judge a QB on his first 16 games.
It would be interesting to see Payton's game by game stats form his rookie year to see if he improved over the course of the season. I don' think the same could be said about EJ, although his first 14 games have been obviously very disjointed.
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You're overthinking this. It's not about trying to decide what the route was supposed to be. It's simply watching where the receiver was when the quaterback let go of the ball.That's not what we are discussing in particular right now. Wraith claimed a miscomunication between QB and receiver (where the latter winds up not in the area of the ball) is "unintentional" and therefore should be immune from IG calls.
It's not true...
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This is the text of the rule:
"Intentional grounding of a forward pass is a foul: loss of down and 10 yards from previous spot if passer is in the field of play or loss of down at the spot of the foul if it occurs more than 10 yards behind the line or safety if passer is in his own end zone when ball is released.
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Intentional grounding will be called when a passer, facing an imminent loss of yardage due to pressure from the defense, throws a forward pass without a realistic chance of completion.
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Intentional grounding will not be called when a passer, while out of the pocket and facing an imminent loss of yardage, throws a pass that lands at or beyond the line of scrimmage, even if no offensive player(s) have a realistic chance to catch the ball (including if the ball lands out of bounds over the sideline or end line)."
Nothing about distances at all. Mike Carey's "explanation" is complete crap. The name of the penalty is "intentional grounding" after all. A miscommunication is, by definition, not intentional. Carey claimed a lot of things that are not supported by the rule book. I wonder what CBS is paying for his dignity.
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Intentional grounding will be called when a passer, facing an imminent loss of yardage due to pressure from the defense, throws a forward pass without a realistic chance of completion.
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This argument is logically inconsistent. If they're going for it on fourth down, then they're treating that possession as if it's their last. Therefore, running the time down is a positive, not a negative.and when you run it and the clock continues to run with almost no time left as it is and down by a TD? Doesn't make sense. Again. The play calls were correct. The Quarterback play was not.
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In case anyone had doubts, Fred Jackson confirmed earlier today that the plan was to try for the offsides and there was no play to run. I'd love to know whether the plan was to call a timeout or take the delay of game penalty. Both options are dumb.
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A lot of mental hoops being jumped through to avoid admitting being wrong.Product of his environment and changes in the game. Cutler went to essentially the same Bears' team that Orton left and statistically had a worse season. Welcome to needing talent around you to be a successful QB. Orton finally has it and he's prospering (in spite of OLine play and CJ's inability to see a hole).
I don't look at traditional football powers like Florida State who generally play NO ONE, are in a top-to- bottom weak conference and pretend that their success translates. Mostly because it doesn't. Name a great FSU QB who has been a good NFL QB. There's a reason they don't exist.
Congrats to Manuel for being able to dump pass better than other players. That's relevant.
The changes in the passing game between 2005 and now are not relevant. The median completion percentage among qualifying QBs was 60.6% in 2005, exactly the same as 2013. Orton was below the median then and he is well above it now. He has improved.
Does anyone arguing this point actually know how to back up their opinion with supporting evidence?
I mean seriously, one of you is trying to offer up the limits of their imagination as a counter argument. (By the way, Losman once threw for 5 TDs in 5 quarters in 2006, so I have no problem envisioning pretty much any QB pulling off that feat).
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And I wouldn't compare the NFL or college games of 10 years ago with today. The rules and passing game are light years different.
Are you seriously trying to argue that Orton hasn't improved over the years? That he was good all along and the rules just changed?
Let's normalize things by comparing Orton to his peers:
Senior Year of College (2004): 60.7% was good for 3rd in the Big Ten, Not on the chart nationally
Rookie Year (2005): 51.6% was good for 33rd (out of 34) in the NFL. Only person he was better than was J.P. Losman
For comparison, Manuel:
Senior Year of College (2012): 68.0% was good for 1st in the ACC and 10th in the nation.
Rookie Year (2013): 58.8% was good for 28th (out of 37) in the NFL. Somehow beating out big names like Matthew Stafford and Colin Kaepernick.
Orton was very bad. Hopefully now he is good. Improvement in this area is very possible.
Suh "Sack
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Suh created a false dichotomy and you are falling for it. Suh had the option of attempting to finish the play with a normal, legal tackle. In this case it would have been difficult because Suh would've had to release his grip on Taylor's collar, but that is Suh's own damn fault for grabbing the collar in the first place.