Wraith

According to the analysts at Cover1, the Giants really picked on Williams in pass coverage. https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-new-york-giants-recap/

So it clearly wasn’t an Achilles since he’s trying to play through it but he’s clearly hobbled. Interestingly enough, that non-contact injury Kelce just experienced happened on slit film turf, which has been shown to be much worse for injuries compared to other artificial surfaces. The NFL is down to just four stadiums using that turf in the continental US (Met Life is another). Also, Tottenham Hot Spur Stadium uses slit film turf for American Football.

My bet is achilles. His initial reaction looks just like Rodgers and Tre. Not good for the league.

Don't forget, yards per attempt is heavily affected by completion percentage. Basically, incompletions count the same as a completion for 0 yards, bringing down the average. Separating out completion % and yards/completion can provide more detailed insight into quarterback performance but conversely yards/attempt is a very good overall summary statistic for quarterback play.

Allen's ball placement is every bit as good as Tua's. He has been elite in that category for several years now.

Prior to yesterday, Tua already had the reputation for being a system-QB and yesterdays results are only going to strengthen that opinion. As Romo correctly pointed out in the game several times yesterday, Tua isn't even the most valuable player on his own offense.

This confirms a lot of our fears. I am so sorry the Pegula family has to go through something like this. I can say from first hand experience that something like this is traumatizing for both the patient and the supporting family members. However, I can also say from first hand experience that there is a lot of hope - still. Recovery is slow but the brain is an amazingly elastic thing that can adapt and relearn, continuing to improve even years after the original injury. I am amazed at the success Jessica Pegula was able to achieve in her tennis career while going through a year like this.

Agreed. In addition. the two Bengals TD passes were both on completely busted coverages that left the receiver uncovered. On the Hurst TD, at least it was a good play design that tricked the defense but the Chase TD was just embarrassing. I don't know who made the mistake but somehow the Bills ended up with both Marlowe and Edmunds covering the running back in the left flat, Poyer over the top of Tre White for one receiver on the right outside and nobody covering Chase from the slot or the middle of the field in general. It was way too easy for the Bengals.

The quarterback does not determine the drop length, they are part of every play design in order to achieve proper timing with the routes being run by the receivers.

Interesting...

Yikes

Yeah, that was my point.

Yesterday, I was infuriated at both the offensive and defensive game planning. I went to bed thinking the Bills should let Frazier go but should continue with Dorsey, as he was a first year OC with an offense that was overall very strong this season. However, some arguments today now have me on the side that the Bills need to upgrade at OC immediately. The fact that they have prime Allen and Diggs right now means they can't afford another wasted season. Seeing a tweet like this reinforces my belief. A full 2/3rds of the Bills passing plays were perfectly covered. That is shockingly bad and speaks to how much the Bengals DC outcoached Dorsey. Incredible.

Yeah, I've thought the same thing. The Bills record was 13 - 3 with the best point differential in the AFC and the second best strength of victory. They were a legitimately good team. A person can't simultaneously argue they were both under talented and poorly coached, unless you're trying to argue that Allen was super human. Obviously, it is very important for the actual decision makers to figure out which of the two is the real root cause of yesterdays debacle. My vote is on the coaching, especially the coordinators in charge of the game planning.

What evidence do you have that Allen is happy with Dorsey and the current state of the offense? Dorsey was the natural successor to Daboll and clearly Allen endorsed Dorsey at the time because he wanted to keep the offensive success of recent years rolling. People are reading too much into that endorsement beyond that. I doubt very much that Allen has been comfortable with the offensive game plan of "block nobody and hope Josh does something amazing" we've rolled with too many times recently. The last game that seemed to have a coherent offensive gameplan was the first New England game.

Yeah, that idea is moronic. There is zero evidence Sean Payton is a better coach than McDermott. I don't think McDermott needs to be fired. He does need to adapt and change some of his philosophies but unlike many head coaches he actually has demonstrated he can change in the past and I hope to see that happen again. He did make a few terrible decisions yesterday that I thought he had previously gotten past. Along those same lines, I think it is time to move on from Frazier. He has not shown the same ability to adapt. This season, NFL defenses bucked recent trends and finally started pushing back against high powered offenses - and yet the Bills defense managed to get worse overall and especially in big games. I don't know what to make of Dorsey. Watching the game yesterday I couldn't tell if the defense's terrible start wrecked Dorsey's game plan or if there never was a coherent plan to start with. Of course, the Bengals fast start was entirely predictable, so who knows? I haven't seen it mentioned much but amongst a sea of bad coaching decisions yesterday I thought the worst one was deferring to the second half. The Bengals notoriously start off hot and the Bills offensive game plan was very conservative to start with and that combination meant the Bengals had a 14 point lead before the Bills had run their fourth offensive play. Such a terrible way to start.

Right! First time I saw this on third down I thought they were showing blitz but were going to drop back back to clog passing lanes and maybe get a pick but nope, everyone rushes and literally every receiver is wide open at the sticks.

There is no question scheme was a huge problem. Check out the image below. How the hell can you rush 7 and play the CBs deep on third and short? With the poor footing from the snow there was no chance of this working. Bills started pressing on early downs after the 1st quarter but on third down it was consistently soft all game. It was too easy for the Bengals offense.

That went out the window when the defense gave up two long, time consuming touch down drives to start the game. From that point on time and possessions were at a premium.

Imagine the effect on people's perceptions if the Bengals-Bucs game was canceled at half-time instead? Down 17-0 to that moribund Tampa Bay team, followed by a near collapse against New England and two lifeless performances against a depleted Ravens team (one of them in the playoffs). Instead, the Buccaneers hand the Bengals the game on a platter in the second half and suddenly everyone thinks the Bengals are some kind of goliath. So bizarre.

Need this plastered at the top of the board and every thread. It is that simple.

The Bills offense can move the ball down the field. That is not the problem. The problem is the occasional burst of turnovers. The article tries to connect that to the deep throws. It is not true.

Yup. This is analysis is deeply flawed: It tries to make it seem like this is multi-game or even season-long trend, when their own graphs shows it was really just one game (Miami) influencing both the stats and obviously, by extension, the perception of the media. The analysis fails to acknowledge that while the Bills route density hasn't changed much in Dorsey's offense, in the one game affecting the analysis, the defense was vastly different, bucking the trend of consistent two-high safeties in favor of single high or no safeties. Remember last year when two-high was supposedly the answer to Josh Allen? It makes an assumption that deep throws are inherently more risky and cherry picks one play to try to demonstrate that the interception to John Brown. The deeper throws are obviously harder to complete but an incomplete pass is hardly the worst thing that can happen. Someone show me some data that says deeper throws result in more turnovers. Seems counter intuitive to me. At most, three of Allen's interceptions this year came on deep throws (depending on how they are defined). Pittsburgh (Levi Wallace covering Gabe Davis 1-on-1 in the end zone) Minnesota (Peterson interception in OT) Chicago (1st interception, safety lined up on line of scrimmage then dropped back to create a double team against McKenzie) So many of Allen's interceptions this year were on short little throws directly to defenders he inexplicably didn't see in the middle of the season. Removes those from the numbers and nobody is talking about his turnover count or trying to connect them to the deep shots.

Any theories on how this could happen?

The Cincy TD was not on Tre, it was 100% the perfect offensive play call for the alignment the Bills were in. The Bills were in zone and White had outside leverage with Hamlin inside deep and Neal, Edmunds, Milano underneath. Hamlin had to drop down to cover the slot receiver who ran a deep cross behind Neal and Edmunds. As soon as Hamlin committed, White had zero chance to cover the deep in route. I don't know if Hamlin made the right decision, the slot guy would've been wide open at the goal line if Hamlin kept his depth but it might've been a more difficult throw in between Edmunds and Milano. Perhaps Poyer should've rotated over sooner...