Wraith

Yup, Ross Tucker had a simplified diagram of the probabilities on Twitter this morning:

Mahomes literally threw a terrible interception in the end zone that ended up costing the Chiefs the game against the same Eagles team six days ago. Do you watch any football games that the Bills aren't playing in?

Thank you for this. It was an option route and the read is the safety, not the CB leverage. Going to the corner puts the CB between the receiver and the QB no matter what the leverage was but takes the safety out of the equation. As it was an all out blitz and the safety vacated the middle of the field Davis should have just ran a go route. Davis has a great game up to that point but he is prone to misreading the option routes and it burned them again this time.

The reason you should look at turnover worthy plays rather than turnovers when assessing an individual quarterback's play is obvious and you would have to be willfully obtuse to not see it. Tell me, which one of these was the better throw? Which one of these was the turn-over worthy play? A) Earlier this season against Miami, Terrel Bernard fumbled a Tua pass directly into the handles of Jalen Waddle. It goes in the books as long reception. B) In 2020, Allen threw a pass to Tyler Kroft who catches it cleanly before getting stripped of the ball while on the ground. It gets recorded as an interception.

Wayne Arnold posted these in another thread:

🤣 In a year in which I have heard a lot of dumb football punditry, the idea that Allen threw too hard to Gabe Davis on that play might be the single dumbest. There were 20 freakin' yards between Allen and Davis on that play. That play to Kumerow is one of my favorites of all time.

Yup! The Bills defense hasn't had an interception in six freakin' games! The Bills turnover rate on offense this season is perfectly normal, the turnover margin is terrible because the defense can't force a turnover to save their lives.

This nails it. Most people don't appreciate how much random variation affects the world, and sports fans and pundits are generally terrible at it due to their need to explain every outcome with a narrative.

I think the Josh Allen turnover narrative is greatly overstated. Passing volume and randomness significantly affect people's perception. Your own link show's that Allen is much better than average at interception % for his career, despite supposedly being a gunslinger. Even this year, his interception rate is basically equal to Peyton Manning's career mark. The other thing is just random luck. Through the first eight weeks of the season, Allen had 8 interceptions and two fumbles on 7 total turn-over worthy plays, in the opinion of Pro Football Focus. That means that literally every mistake Allen was making was getting picked and then some. That is not a normal rate. Every quarterback benefits from defensive backs inability to reliably catch but this year randomness has not been in Allen's favor. Meanwhile, the Bills defense has not had an interception since the Miami game six weeks ago. How many picks did they drop against Baker Mayfield two weeks ago? My count was three.

Where is this narrative that Allen can't find open receivers/read a defense/go through progressions coming from? The graph below, from last week, shows that despite being in an offense that is well below average at getting receivers open, Allen is way above average at finding an open receiver and throwing to them. This fits with the narrative I've heard from nearly every analyst I've listened to this season that say that the Bills offense relied on Josh Allen being elite and near-perfect to make up for an overly complex yet unimaginative and undynamic offensive system and play calling. The graph passes the smell test without a doubt. Brock Perdy is succeeding despite lack of physical gifts because he is throwing to wide open receivers and he is good at finding them. Brian Daboll is still good at scheming receivers open but Daniel Jones is straight up terrible at finding them. Patrick Mahomes has mediocre receivers who can't get separation, but like Allen he is way above average at still finding an open receiver. Despite that, there is no doubt that the KC offense has taken a huge step back just like Buffalo's. Analysts have pretty consistently critiqued Dorsey's offense because it was exceptionally reliant on option routes across the field. The theoretical advantage of this reliance is that the Bills could respond to any defense at any time, there is no such thing as a perfect defensive call against them. However, the practical outcome is the Bills are incredibly predictable on offense. Once defenses learned the Bills' "rules" for option routes/audibles/RPOs, the defenses could constantly dictate the Bills offensive decision making and force them into outcomes where the so-called "best reads" are mediocre. The 4th and 1 play from Monday night is a great example. Based on what the defense did pre- and post-snap, the correct read was to throw it to Dalton Kincaid out in the right flat. But Kincaid was several yards behind the line of scrimmage with a linebacker and safety closing the gap. If the correct read on a 4th and 1 play is to throw to your tight end behind the line of scrimmage and hope he can break a tackle, you weren't in the right play to start with. Maybe on 3rd and 1 Allen would've taken that option and hoped to live another day but on 4th and 1 Allen clearly decides that extending the play and hoping for something "high variance" is the better option. Both the stats and the eye-test show that Allen is incredible in scenarios where he has to extend the play in this manner, so it was probably the right decision in this case but it is easy to criticize when it doesn't work out. Most of the Bills best and worst offensive plays this year are from Allen refusing to take the so-called "correct read" because they are mediocre and instead trying to force something or extend the plays until a receiver is more open or further down field. I guarantee his interception rate goes down if the OC puts him in positions where the best options aren't consistently mediocre. I beg some of you guys who are so opinionated on Allen's play or Dorsey to watch some of the analysts on Youtube. There are many and they are pretty consistent with their messaging about the Bills 'offensive system.

A lot of projection in that post you quoted. Geez.

Wrong, Elam was on the injury report from week 7 onward. https://www.buffalobills.com/team/injury-report/week/REG-7 https://www.buffalobills.com/team/injury-report/week/REG-8

Just saw this graphic, that utilizes PFF data, that asserts that Burrow throws to his first read at a higher rate than the NFL average and far more often than Tua. Surprising information. Makes me wonder if teams have gotten a lot better in recent weeks at taking away Tua's first read (like the Bills did) and that is why the Dolphins offense has slowed down considerably.

He's been on the injury report the last two weeks: https://www.buffalobills.com/team/injury-report/week/REG-7

You're both wrong. Elam has been on the injury report since week 7 with an ankle injury. https://www.buffalobills.com/team/injury-report/week/REG-7

How about you do the work yourself instead of throwing out unsubstantiated claims and expecting other folks to do the work to prove you wrong? We'll be here waiting on your results...

I disagree. If anything they overcompensated for the Hail Murray and did the exact opposite. In Arizona, all three defensive backs tried to out jump each other for the ball and Hopkins outjumped them all. None of them played for positioning. This was the exact opposite, every defensive back went for the box out to the point that none of them played the ball. It seemed to be a deliberate strategy. https://youtu.be/8rEOlSzxrhM?si=WW_dXjR6CS9wOCjA&t=41

Donte Stallworth (former NFL receiver, current analyst) says the Bills played the hail mary "perfectly." Here a few snippets from his thread on Twitter.

Boxing out is not against the rules.

Well said and, to be honest, I'm not really seeing much from the Bills that meets the a traditional definition of pass interference. Rapp and Benford boxed in that front receiver but neither one had much actual contact and they have a right to that space just as much as the receiver does.

Think how much random good luck Tampa Bay had last night in order to keep that game close: Mayfield had at least 5 tipped/batted passes. None of them get intercepted and two of them go for scores (TD to off Benford's helmet, 2-point conversion tipped by Phillips). Meanwhile Allen is basically flawless with his passing all night except for one pass that gets tipped in the air directly to a defensive lineman. Tampa Bay fumbled twice and recovered them both. The facemask on Phillips on 4th down was bad luck. The play should've been blown dead already. I agree it looked like Phillips was trying to find a way to tackle Mayfield that wouldn't results in a roughing the passer penalty. The illegal contact penalty on Johnson on the prior 4thd down was a terrible call. Johnson made contact at the line of scrimmage and just ran side-by-side with him afterwards. It was a terrible call in a vacuum and even worse given the context of the game.

The first punt was 4th & 4 before the delay of game with 3:00 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. That one was definitely the correct call by McDermott. The problem was the following punt. That one was initially a 4th & 2 with 10:00 minutes to go in the 4th. The problem there was by that time Tampa was clearly in "no punt" mode and it is really hard to stop an NFL offense when they get 4 plays per set of downs instead of 3. McDermott should have trusted the offense to get 2 yards and essentially end the game right there.

No, you're just plain wrong here. The offense was fine in the fourth quarter, the coaching and play calling just got ultra conservative. The Bills offense was using very little clock the first three quarters and with a two touchdown lead in the fourth quarter they decided to downshift to eat some clock.

Morse, not Allen. Watch that play again. Morse quick snapped it because he thought he had Tampa Bay in the neutral zone (probably did). Neither Allen nor the rest of the OL were expecting and let defender through the middle unblocked.