Wraith

There was no way Diggs was getting the first down on that play. Assuming the pass is accurate with the blow from Dawkins, and assuming Diggs actually catches it, that option was getting 4 or 5 yards max. They would still be facing a 3rd and medium while trying to preserve a FG attempt.

I'm talking about the last 2nd down throw to Shakir all the Monday morning QBs are clamoring for a throw to Diggs instead because the CBS broadcast made it look like he was wide open two yards downfield. The defense gave the Bills a wide open receiver in the end zone and the correct decision was to take it! Chris Jones made a great play to walk Dawkins into Allen and ruined it.

Yes, he was wide open and Allen's anticipation to see the window about to develop was awesome.

Images below show the release of the pass (left) and a moment later (right). There was no way Diggs was getting that first down. Diggs is a terrible YAC guy and had two defenders squared up between him and and the line to gain.

Passing up the wide open Shakir for Diggs on a 2-yard drag route on 2nd and 9 would've been moronic. The mirror image of that route was almost intercepted earlier. This time, Diggs had two defenders squared up on him. 23 was shadowing him the entire route and 32 passes off Kincaid to 22 to pick up Diggs as he goes to the flat. At the time of the pass they're both tracking Diggs. We've seen how Diggs runs with the ball. There is no way Diggs is making it for a first down, if he even catches the ball. Add in that Shakir is catching everything lately and Diggs is most certainly not and it was an easy decision. This is football, quarterbacks can't control every variable, good decisions don't always work out. The images below show the moment of the throw (left) and a moment later (right). The anticipation Allen showed on that throw was incredible. Chris Jones just beat Dion Dawkins.

The passing game has been up and down this season but the timing of this post is odd. The passing game was very efficient and well-structured against the Steelers and even against the Dolphins it was moving the ball at will until the red zone.

Some interesting factoids from Twitter. Visiting defenses get called for holding at a huge (statistical outlier) rate in Kansas City but the advantage almost goes away when on the road. Conversely, Kansas City's pass defense is much worse on the road.

I agree with this and along those same lines, the Bills defense was also clearly prioritizing run defense and that can mean de-emphasizing the pass rush to maintain gap integrity.

Yes, exactly this. The big change for the Pittsburgh offense is they suddenly started finding big plays in the passing game. Rudolph has thrown 3 TD passes and the shortest one was for 66 yards. The others were 71 and 86 yards. Of course all three of them are mostly yards after catch and have been kinda flukey. Against Baltimore they had exactly one sustained drive that went for 76 yards and a TD on 12 plays. Their other TD came on 71 yard pass where Deonte Johnson took a slant route right up the middle between Baltimore's backup safeties who took terrible routes looked disinterested in tackling the whole game. In total, their drives were: 1st Half 6 plays, 22 yards, punt 12 plays, 76 yards, rushing TD 3 plays, 2 yards, punt 4 plays, 13 yards, fumble 3 plays, 9 yards, punt 8 plays, 23 yards, fumble 2nd Half 4 plays, 4 yards, punt 4 plays, 2 yards, punt 6 plays, 89 yards, passing TD (drive was 5 plays for 15 yards before a 71 yard passing TD on 3rd and 4). 9 plays, 25 yards, FG (after a Baltimore fumble at the BAL 32)

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/buffalo/KBUF/date/2022-10-9 Weather Underground says average windspeed was 22 mph with gusts up to 36 mph during the Bills-Steelers game on October 9, 2022. Pretty much right on what is forecast for this upcoming game.

If the Dolphins win they go to Baltimore the following week and the Bills, if they beat Pittsburgh, would get the winner of the Texans/Browns.

It's all because of Cris Collinsworth initial statements during the game. It set the narrative. I don't even mind Collinsworth's statement because he had about 3 seconds to form an analysis before he had to talk about it live on air. If he has gone back and rewatched the play a few times he probably has already changed his opinion. The rest of these talking heads have time to actually watch the play a few times before spouting off opinions about it and they just don't. It was clearly an option route and one of them picked wrong. Maybe it was Josh in the face of an all-out blitz. But given what I see on the tape and the fact that this happens constantly with Gabe Davis and NOBODY else, I've got to believe it was Davis that chose wrong.

Anybody have a replay of the last sneak? My recollection was that one didn't have a pusher, which was unfortunate because Allen stayed up for a long time and all they needed was push and he probably easily gets the first down.

Image shows the moment Allen steps into the throw. He is looking at Davis and Apple. Red dot is where the interception happens - it was absolutely outside. Orange dot is where Davis is standing at the moment of interception.

Alright, watching Baldy's replay of the first interception is really aggravating. What was Davis thinking working back to the post? It is an all out, cover zero blitz. The DB has inside leverage. Davis gets solid positioning going to outside.

It truly is amazing how little production that offense gets once the initial play breaks down. We are spoiled watching Allen regularly rescuing plays he has no business rescuing.

Full play for the suspected injury:

Literally just saw this on Twitter....

The thing is it wasn't confusing for the referee. 70, who was mistakenly reported as eligible, never got within 20 feet of the ref and never made the patting motion. Meanwhile, 68 is right in the refs face and made the reporting motion. The ref looks right at him and nodded. This wasn't a complicated situation for the referee. He just messed up in a major, game and potentially season changing way.

The Lions had no timeouts left, they had no recourse, assuming they even heard the announcement (a big assumption as the announcement was not audible on the broadcast)

That's not correct. The Lions had an unbalanced line which is legal. Decker, after reporting in, is basically a tight end. There is no rule about number of people on either side of the center. If Decker reported in, which he clearly did, the Lions formation is legal.

Not sure what you're seeing here. He has full control of the ball with a shin and toe down in this shot from the end of the video YOLO posted. It was a catch for sure.

The broadcast had the final count at 4 drops and 2 throw aways.

A lot of you folks are overthinking it. The problem with the current rules is they are not consistent across the whole field and the solution is to make them consistent. If you fumble out of bounds backwards through your own end zone the ball is spotted where it goes out (a safety). If you fumble forward through the opponents end zone the ball goes back to the spot of the fumble. Simple.