DCofNC

Well, we know the Devil is cold this week 😂. I am with you, I don’t have any clue how this game will play out, but I don’t consider it a sure thing. I didn’t take the Bills in a survivor pick em contest, even though it was one of the top choices.

Week one always sees goofy outcomes, I don’t feel great about this game for a number of reasons. Murray is a PITA to defend, they have some talent on the outside and the Bills are rolling out new safties, new WRs, basically a new offense, with a new D coordinator and minus Milano again. This may not be a cake walk.

Virtually every WR who’s played with Allen has their best season ever. I would be shocked if Samuel (health allowing) doesn’t break out for over 1k this year. He’s a talent, he’s had miserable QBs and a lot of injuries. I’m more concerned with him staying on the field than what he can do. Steph is going to be in a competition for passes, he has other guys who need to get fed around him too. I expect him and Nico to both have good numbers, while Dell and Shultz will take a significant amount of targets as well. I think it’s quite plausible to have Samuel end up with better numbers simply because he will get a larger share of the targets.

Your numbers are wrong, he’s not getting 45M, he’s getting 76M for 3 years. On no planet are you getting a WR for 15M a year right now, that’s the basis of the whole problem, he didn’t want to play for the 15M he was going to make this year so he guaranteed himself a pay day. His option bonuses take effect at the start of next year and make it 76M, they aren’t parting with him and eating the contract before then and it’s injury guaranteed. The 49ers had all the leverage, teams are tapped out at this point in the season AND they had him under contract, his options were limited, he either had to play for 15M this year or sit out and lose it. The 9ers had to agree to a trade AND he had to go to a team that had room to fit him this year. That left very few options. Also, if things continue, his 42M cap hit in 27 isn’t necessarily out of question, but assuming it is, it’s actually better for him to hit FA again or renegotiate. So he’s coming out with at least 76M for 3 years and got a fat check right now, vs playing for his 15 this year and risking injury/poor performance etc that could have dramatically hurt his value. Would he get more on the open market? Yes. Would you really gamble all that guaranteed money, trying to get another 10-15%? Really not worth it.

They had all the leverage, his only option was to uproot his whole life and go play for a loser team, OR get paid an absurd amount of money to play for a winning team. He wouldn’t play for half of his market value this year, but he also didn’t want to give that money up. He’s lucky they kept that big of an offer on the table. Hopkins is better and struggled to get paid. I don’t think Steph is going to find a hot market for his services.

We disagree on what a hit is. In the first round, if they aren’t an impact player, I don’t consider it a hit. Allen is the only first round player that is a true impact player. Oliver is a good player, as is Groot, but nobody is worrying about them. They are average starters. That’s not a bad outcome, but with Oliver being a top 10 pick, he’s a disappointment. Elam is a bust, Kincaid is promising, we’ll see, same for Torrence. AJE is a JAG. Diggs trade.. I really consider it a loss because the benefit of a first round pick is 5 years of cost control and Diggs wasn’t here 5 years and was immediately paid and then paid again and now is taking 30M in cap to play for another contender in the AFC. So objectively, the Diggs trade was a disaster. I don’t think Beane is doing a bad job on the whole, but his inability to find anyone of real impact outside of Josh is the difference between rings and watching KC win another. The lack of talent on the roster is what caused the Von signing, after burning 2 high picks on that very position the year before, so you wasted a draft and burned massive amounts of cap on the same position, that is the type of thing that’s sets you back big time, and it has.

Well, they have those guys, sooo

Then you also need to acknowledge, at this point, it’s a pattern of not finding impact players early in the draft. Something is odd, they do find a lot of guys late, yet continue to whiff early.

I think there are only two reasonable explanations for this post 1) Blind Homerism or 2) you are/are related to Beane. There hasn’t been a single game played and you are giving him credit for hits we haven’t seen yet and already forgiving the misses you already assume he has. Sounds typical.

The MNF line up is trash this year

Allen had an ELITE SEASON, not a nice finish to one, there’s a big difference. Remember everyone crowing Baker the greatest thing ever after his rookie year? Winston? Etc, so many guys start out pretty well and then the league has tape, Love has so many bad tendencies, his going to have a very rough year this year IMO.

Have we not learned to not judge a QB for half a season of production yet? I may be wrong, but I see him as someone who hopes to be as good as Dak.

I can see the argument for Stroud, even if it’s just the contract end of it. Love? Now THAT is the most overrated QB/possibly player in the entire league. The Packers are going to regret that contract real quick. Come back at the end of the year and quote me as being dead wrong, but that guy is no where near an elite QB as it stands.

Good for him, he’s getting a paycheck and possibly an opportunity to suit up a few times this year, gotta love the perspective. I would honestly take him over the QB formerly known as Mitch, I’m afraid he’s toast.

I think if you reverse the QBs the results would be the same, KC would still be winning and people would be question Mahomes. I take NOTHING away from Mahomes, he’s awesome. I do feel the choice of McClappy as coach is a major hindrance to Allen. When you have a guy that wants to spend time, resources and money on the defense first and leave all the offensive duty to a coordinator, you lose talent to the D and all it takes is the coordinator getting a new gig to have to start over on the most important things again. If you have a HC who is offensive minded, your scheme stays the same and the QB can grow within it. For this reason, I’d never hire a defense first HC. Now I know I’ll get the Bellicheck argument, but that offense was clearly his. Nothing changed when coordinators left, same plans. Here it’s a whole new system every time and it’s been a revolving door of new coordinators.

I completely agree, the system makes QBs look better than they may be in others, which is partially why I was baffled that Lance even got a 4th round pick in return. He’s awful, the fact Dallas fans thought he was the future shows how delusional the average fan base is. I think Jimmy in LV is a little unfair, the whole team was a poop show and if we were going judge fairly, I think they would have been better w him vs O’Connell, after Pierce took over, but coach seemed to like the rookie. I look at Jimmy G, when Healthy, which is nearly never, and he has been a decent QB. I think Purdy is significantly better. Is Purdy kind of spoiled with all those weapons? FOR SURE. Is he getting a ton out of them though? Yes, he is. I look at a guy like Goff and I think that’s kind of where Purdy fits. He’s got talent, but if you don’t give him something to work with, he’s not going to do it ALL by himself. He’s tough, he’s smart, he accurate and has enough arm to make any throw. He’s pretty solidly between the group of Giants at the top and well before the guys that don’t even look great with talent. To me that’s tier 2, I guess you can argue for tier 3, but I see him as better than those guys.

They let people in Baltimore vote… that and idiots are the only ones that would vote vote Jackson over Allen. Objectively speaking, Allen is superior to Jackson in everything meaningful as a qb. Jackson is a slightly more dangerous runner and because of that, it opens things up for the offense.

I agree with your concept that a smart QB can thrive. That said, I don’t think that’s as easy to find as you make it sound. Jimmy G has had stints in the league looking pretty good, he didn’t really lose the job in LV so much as they were going no where and had to see what they had, turned out to be a spark with O’Connell and a new coach. Lance looked like crap even being the 3rd overall pick, and many many guys have had decent starts to a career and fell off a cliff. Purdy has something about him, he’s playing great football. Would I put him out there with nothing and expect miracles? No, he’s not Josh Allen, but I see nothing wrong with him in the same group as Stafford.

I see 10 games I think they should win, but I expect growing pains and some flukes, so I’m going w 9.

Better than Denzel Mims.. at least it was only a 5th round pick.

That’s true, BUT how much is it worth to miss the playoffs (or worse) over him? They could do it if they really were committed to it, I think they are still on the hopium high and seeing if it works out.

They will be dreadful, but will they admit it or be drunken sailors again? The pool of crap was deep in TC for the Bills too. Depth doesn’t mean any real talent is there, just means you have a bunch of guys around the same talent level and in this case, they are choosing to develop the young guys and hope bc he’s not getting younger and they are going nowhere fast.

I’d be shocked if they don’t bring somebody to the practice squad at very least. Bass has proven to be shaky at best. I hate the fact they didn’t bring somebody in earlier.

1) Bass has to not choke. 2) Shakir has to become a Pro Bowler 3) Von, Jones, Milano all need to return to form and be healthy late in the year. 4) Mahomes and Jackson both have to have season ending injuries. 5) To win the SB, the 49ers will also have to be banged up. Step one is start by hitting on some draft picks, continued whiffing on elite talent has left the need to fill the talent with Free Agency. The Chiefs have done most of their damage with guys they drafted. The only place they have really spent money for guys outside the organization is on OT.

Whats your take on the prices going down closer to that game? I’m flying in for it, got the travel and hotel done, looking at tickets, want to go 50 yard line to be real honest. I haven’t been to a Bills game in a few years and want to do it right, the fees are INSANE. I budgeted $1k for the pair, looks like I need to almost double it, which is insane because the base price of the tickets aren’t that far off, but the fees are $200+ a seat.