Mikie2times

What's even more damning is the only teams worse than Buffalo that have more than 1 playoff game in this sample is NYG and PIT. Buffalo has 9 games in this sample. Over half a season. So fairly stable data for what it is. Also worth noting is where the Bengals fall and Ravens. Total opposite along with KC who has a perception of being much better on defense but really are about the same.

I don't have a DVOA specific calculator to be that specific. I do have a EPA one. EPA has some very close relationships to DVOA and many even prefer it. This is EPA on defense for wild card round or later 2020 to current compared to regular season EPA 2020 to current and the associated delta. The higher the positive threshold the worse they perform in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Sample size is an issue with this look as the Bills are really the only team with a meaty sample that is up very high outside of maybe Dallas. Hope this helped to a degree. I have both listed.

I'm posting on a Bills forum about the Bills. You're picking on a Bills fans life on a Bills forum as being dismal because what, you don't like this topic ? I'm sure you can focus on the WR's are way better this year thread if you don't like this one.

If this is the case, ok. I'm on board with injuries playing a role. But christ, Milano is already out, we are one exceptionally undersized LB injury away from looking pretty darn close to last year. One WR injury away from total depletion. If injuries are the reason they seem like they're already creeping in that direction again and we haven't played yet. You can't have depth everywhere, but LB and WR were not that hard to see as far as potential issues if an injury or two happened and we didn't exactly load up either position with even quality depth.

I would tend to agree but he sure seems to max out his talent in other spots. I'm starting to think it's a combination of him being able to max out talent against average squads, then sort of hitting a wall as that talent level increases. Take those concepts with some injuries and it can explains most, not all of this. Sure, some of it is likely random.

I have seen zero evidence to suggest this team can hang with a healthy Joe Burrow. It's not just KC. I can see a combination of injuries and great teams. Perhaps coaching against those great teams. I mean keep in mind the Bengals had nearly the entire starting offensive line out against us. So it's not like they were healthy and across 3 opening drives Joe B has nearly 200 yards, 3TD's and zero incompletions on us. It's very hard for me to say it's one thing with this type of information available to consider. The bold is an interesting thought. I have wondered is scheme contributes and perhaps it does with us not playing any man vs those that do. Further, sort of an undersized speed oriented defense. Which can run a little more soft.

If that is the reason is it something you just chalk up to bad luck? Sort of like the statistical outlier concept. The longer an outlier is present the more likely it is no longer an outlier. The 2020 playoff run with a reasonably healthy defense makes me question if it's as simple as that. Colts and Chiefs did what they wanted on us. I don't question if that has been a contributing factor especially of late.

I need Tony D'Amato to read me lifes a game of inches before bed

DVOA is the most accurate ranking system I'm aware of which is a good place to start this journey. All of these rankings are regular season only. This is Buffalo's DVOA ranking since 2020 2020: DVOA 3rd 2021: DVOA 2nd 2022: DVOA 1st 2023: DVOA 3rd - 2020 4 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (including Buffalo) - 2021 2 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (KC was 6th) - 2022 3 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (CIN was 6th) - 2023 3 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (DET was 7th) No team in the NFL has 4 years in the Top 5 let alone the top 3. Our level of success has been a bit unprecedented. In this time our defense has ranked (in order) 2020: 11th 2021: 1st 2022: 2nd 2023: 12th -Based on EPA in the playoffs we rank 18th out of 28 teams with at least one playoff game since 2020. -We rank 16th out of 17 teams in the divisional round or later during that time (offense is 4th out of 17 Divisional round or later and 6th out of 28 wild card or later) The lack of success we have had in the playoffs compared to DVOA is striking but the 16th out of 17th defensive rankings in EPA is even more stunning. We somehow go from an elite defense to a pillow once we cross the divisional round. This topic has been discussed at length on this board so I'm just noting it from an analytics stand point. Now the reason for this playoff demise has to be KC right? Ok, well then how do we explain.... -what the Bengals did to us in the divisional round? -how other teams can slow Mahomes down with lower defensive rankings in the playoffs? -what happens in the regular season vs KC? Top line is Mahomes vs us in the regular season and the lower graph is Mahomes vs those teams in the playoffs Lets shift back to those DVOA rankings -Winningest team in the NFL during this time -Witch of a GM in Beane The talent level has to be very high? Those who vote for all pro's don't seem to think so. This is 1st or 2nd team all pros as voted on by multiple publications since 2020. -So we are among the best teams in football with one of the best GM's in football but our players aren't considered that great (which I somewhat agree with). -Then our coach, who typically leads one of the best defenses in the NFL, with what appears to be players that are not the best, sucks in the postseason and has also earned a Marty like reputation (which I sort of agree with but more recently wonder more about our talent level) -We can handle KC in the regular season just fine but not the postseason. -We are the most successful team in the NFL, but can't advance past the Wild Card -All this is occurring with a hall of fame level QB who is among the more successful in the playoffs of all time Why do people think this is the profile of our team? To me, it has almost reached an obsessive level of analyzation because deep down I just don't trust this iteration of the Bills and I can't stand that I don't trust them. Something is not right and I don't think it is as simple as saying McD, defense, KC. It could be multiple things but I don't think it is possible that one thing can explain what is in this thread. HELP ME UNDERSTAND!

I would pay money to listen to McD read some of these responses sort of like below 😂

Because of Bates Cap hit. You can find a post from me last year saying we would cut both. Both had nice cap savings.

Since we let a player walk he must not be as good as his replacement is not accurate. He got way more than Edwards on the open market. We didn't want to sign an aging center in cap hell. The line is likely going to be a strength as it was last year. If I was debating on why it is better this year I would focus on Torrence developing more not Edwards being + against Morse. That's just not accurate as of now. Perhaps Morse regresses more and Edwards does great. Maybe the line gels more. A lot of unknowns, regardless it's not overly significant if I think the OL and DL is a smidgen worse. Either group could go either way and we have other groups that are much more obvious for the sake of this conversation. Note if we aren't aligned on this, all good on my end.

To start the year Morse is better than Edwards. He has more accolades, more years as a starter, more years as a high end starter. Why would the burden be on me to say Morse is better than Edwards when we barely know what the heck we are getting from Edwards? Floyd had 10.5 sacks last year, so I assume at some point in the year he was a factor. Just because its convenient to subtract that in your mind doesn't make it any less real.

-Morse at C and McGovern at G is better than Edwards at G and McGovern at C. As I said, that could change. It was also a strength last year. -Floyd had 10.5 sacks last year. Who do we have that has gotten over 10 sacks? I'm hopeful Von and AJ will really deliver. Groot is also always in the mix for that big next step. It's certainly possible both these positions are better. At day 1 that isn't the case.

Clearly Worse at LB, S, OL, WR Likely Worse at DL Clearly Better at TE Likely Better at RB Neutral at QB It's worse to start. Might not end that way.

This is the best news I have gotten since 920pm PST

1. Josh is incredible and forces you to consider if he is the best in the NFL => Which will inevitably bring out haters 2. Josh has not won a Super Bowl => Which will inevitably bring out haters 3. Josh is not conventional => Which will inevitably bring out haters 4. Josh is turnover prone =>Which will inevitably bring out haters Josh hating is a ratings draw. It's a debate with a lot of angles. He gives the media both greatness and low hanging fruit to question that greatness and the media eats it up. They don't care about his rushing TD's (see #3 above)

That must be why Josh won most underappreciated sac.

Andr-EEyyyy SSuuuuuuun

I'm glad that child is wearing those uniforms. That doesn't make me feel old or anything.

I get your point, but I think it's more complicated than that. The key is getting a high level talent like Lamb to play within a team as you're pointing out. Talent still matter a lot. Otherwise this whole thing would just be about building chemistry. Chemistry is not what allowed Chris Jones to plow into Allen last year and stop a TD catch from occurring. Paying a really talented guy a hell of a lot of money is what allowed that to happen.

I was going to say exactly this.

They must not have circadian rhythms

Lamb is a top 5 WR and might even be higher than that. If you don't pay him, I don't know who you pay. Lamb isn't the reason they flop in the playoffs. That distinction is on Dak and McCarthy. Buffalo doesn't have hold outs like this because Beane likes to get ahead of these contracts and get extensions done well before the contract is going to expire. Which in some ways is good as the cap is always increasing which makes an earlier contract cheaper but in some ways it's bad because the extensions don't always work out. This has been most obvious with guys like Diggs and Bass, but has also been the case with several others based on injury. So while us casual fans haven't really had to gasp at an ungodly contract given out by Beane, we certainly have gasped at the dead cap hit we have which is linked to why we haven't had ungodly contracts. It's also about the talent of the players we have. We have no Lamb or Aiyuk on this team. We traded Diggs. Who would hold out on our current or even former rosters outside of Josh? We have no star talent on this team and haven't for most of Beane's tenure. If anything our lack of hold outs is probably more of symptom you would want to see on occasion like with Chris Jones last year.