Mikie2times

That offense is going to be nasty

I'm going to take a time out and think about this more

I know you like to throw that caveat in because I have discussed this with you before. But our total production outside of Buffalo is such a small sliver of the pie, I really don't think it somehow validates AV as a measure for draft success. The stat is influenced by too much. I applaud the attempt at trying to solve for the unsolvable problem in a uniform way. It's creative and well done. I just don't agree that is accurate enough.

I figured it was about 1% give or take. Didn't agree with it, but not the end of the world

He is not over 75% outside of Denver at 40+ years old. The Hail Mary defense was executed perfectly. This isn't a witch hunt, it's one call I don't agree with.

I said it in our TBD fantasy league in real time so not exactly hindsight. The variance on this decision on win rate is around 1%. I still think kicking puts you on the wrong side of that 1%, but not worth starting a thread on. I don't see anybody in this thread taking the time to prove this out, so all opinion.

Prater is 75% at best in that spot, that's a 25% chance to have several clean shots at the goal line. I don't think they had any chance if they had to go the field. So I didn't like the call.

Not at all. The right move was to punt. That said, I'm not giving him a hard time. He did an excellent job Sunday.

Given how you're using AV is subject to how you build your roster, yes, different philosophies leading to different results. "Draft, Develop, Retain" as Beane says. Your big call out is nothing more than how the Bills like to build the team and the total success they have had which provides more AV points. They don't bring many competitive free agents and will give excessive chances to draft picks. Allen pulls the rankings up more which provides more AV points to be distributed. This method is severely flawed to to the point where I doubt the people at pro football reference would even consider it functional.

I mean, his picks are competing with his own roster. So I’m not sure how valid AV is.

You think Allen is just going to throw it all over the field in that spot?

My opinion is Cook won't be on the field. As much as I don't like it. In a no huddle where you can't sub easily Johnson is the guy in the game and has been for virtually every high leverage two minute drill we have had. Shakir will be heavily minimized by the situation. He's not catching a lot of balls 10+ yards downfield. It's nearly all at the line of scrimmage. I trust Kincaid the most as an option, but I don't know how much we will scheme him open in such a situation.

Lets see what we can do here

I have some bad news guys

Christmas was not kind to you as a child I take it?

The clock killing throw to Cook was big. Great seeing. I don't see much of that playing out in a true 2 minute drill, Cook wasn't even on the field last year. I don't think he would in this situation either. @Buffalo716 The question is specifically about the offense in this situation. We all can hope we never face such a situation. So your vote is Allen to put a cape on?

As we try to triangulate what this team can actually do in the postseason, I keep coming back to one thing, how do we execute a game winning drive in the postseason? Historically, Allen has been among the best quarterbacks in football when it comes to high leverage, clutch drives. Yet we’ve now been in this exact same position back to back years and failed to deliver. I’m not revisiting those games to assign blame, that topic has been dissected to nauseating levels, but rather to ask with how this offense is constructed today, how do we see a two minute drill against a playoff caliber defense playing out? We’re heavily reliant on methodically moving the ball, spamming Cook, spamming Shakir, spamming screens. Playing bigger sets, throwing to our TE's. We don’t really have an offense that can operate efficiently in long yardage from my view. It would seem to me that we will need to revert to Allen putting the cape on, but maybe others feel different. So if we’re down four with two minutes left and the season on the line, do you think we score? What does that drive even look like when you strip away what gives this offense consistency, with Cook likely off the field, short passing limited, and defenses forcing us to win on the perimeter?

At the end of the day I don't see this offense being able to capitalize on a 2 minute drill to win a game vs a playoff defense nor do I see it likely we come from behind. That is IF the defense can even position us to do so. Maybe we go full Baltimore mode, but we haven't shown any glimpses of that performance since. You can see clear as day how that final drive with this offense is going to play out. We aren't going to be able to run or screen our way to the end zone. That's where I think we are.

Prior to our game the Chiefs rated 21st in Success rate and 22nd in EPA against the rush. Jones is not having a good year and I noted we would be able to run on them. OP called out how quickly things change. I'm just calling out that things really didn't change nor was it any different weeks ago prior to the two losses. To expect actual change players need to develop. The secondary could be a source of actual change this year. But as far as saying we are fixed or we are broken, it's neither. Our formula worked flawlessly yesterday. When it doesn't we will see what we saw in our losses unless we have a reason to think it's different. Only fans swing these larger narratives like "we are fixed, sky is falling, back to being a Super Bowl team".

Everybody who was complaining knew we were a playoff team, most people didn't think we were a Super Bowl team. Nothing has changed in that regard right now from my view. The secondary performance is an exciting development for sure, but no downfield threat in the passing game is still going to be a problem. Teams that shut down the run effectively are still going to be a problem.

We have like 2 Marlboros of cap space

Hell ya it was. That's a big boy as well. Even if Bishop delivered the hit I know he felt that one himself. But it was a hell of a hit right in the rib cage. That is a will taking play. You don't want to be in the middle of the field after something like that.

It was, he was still in bounds but clearly trying to get out and got popped pretty hard

As always great write up, you're probably my favorite post game summary poster. The good 1. The secondary looks like it could develop into a strength as the season wears on. That is a really exciting development and could turn the tide on the the direction of this season. 2. McD is calling the bulk of these plays if not all of them. I'm fine with that. We need to be in our best calls more than ever. 3. The defensive line looked great, Bosa was on fire. The Hoecht loss is devastating. He looked like a real player. 4. Cook is just so good and the offensive line was dominating 5. Kincaid is a serious difference maker and almost required for us to be effective offensively 6. Allen had a great game and stayed in the pocket more, offensive line kept him super clean most the day. 7. Love the pressure on the hail mary. We have seen a few of those transpire now, it would have been so disappointing to see us drop everybody and give a clean throw. The bad 1. Again nothing downfield with our WR's and very limited work outside of screens. I don't think we can climb to the top of the mountain with this type of WR output. 2. Hoecht injury seemed impactful almost right away. Bosa was insane, but he's also disappeared at times. As have others. Can we get consistency in line play and grow as the season wears on? 3. A couple calls bothered me. The 3rd and 10 screen to Shakir. I get that we aren't a long yardage offense at this point, but we can't throw in the white flag on 3rd and 10. This sort of goes back to point #1 about downfield WR production. It is required as an offense and we will need it. 4. Kicking the FG late. You have 7 point lead, a punt pins them inside the 20 and likely drains 3-4 more seconds off. It would have forced them to go 80+ yards with no timeouts and under 25 seconds. Sign me up for that. The ONLY chance they had was that missed FG and we walked into that. Didn't bite us today, but I really disagree with that move. The final It was a huge win for us for playoff seeding and AFC east seeding. Pure domination vs one of the better teams in the AFC. It was a similar script to how we lost the last couple weeks but this time we dished out the punishment. The progression of guys like Bishop and Max can't be understated and could really transform this defense. As you said, it's 1-0, and we have a long way to go, but great win and exciting to see some development with key players.

It was the right call to punt. It would have drained even more time. Unlikely they even can threaten the end zone. The only real path to doing so was a missed long FG.