Mikie2times

If people want consistency you just need to pay attention to the stats that matter. - No QB in recent history has won with anything less than a 3 to 1 Pass TD/INT ratio. The voters value limiting turnovers. - Only 2 players have won 3 times in 6 years. Manning and Favre. Voters are hesitant to keep giving the same player the award. - 10 of the last 13 QB’s who won the award at QB have either led the NFL in wins or tied for the lead. Wins matter. Add this up and Allen is the guy this year.

Imagine if we only got past the wild card round with our HF QB

Yes, it seems a lot of people have been pounding the table to replace McD with Doug Pederson 😂

Ya, for all those calling him stupid, I don’t know if its that. A lot to be said for overcomplicating things in leaderships roles.

Not like BB ever executed that game plan in the Super Bowl before

Ya, I know what that looks like already and it’s 7-0 Bengals. No thanks

Chargers knocking off KC is intriguing and possible. Oddly, I probably feel about the same level of confidence in Arrowhead as I do vs the Bengals or the Ravens. Both those teams just have the keys to McD’s defense in the short passing game or run game.

1. Chiefs 2. Ravens 3. Bills 4. Bengals 5. Chargers 6. Broncos 7. Texans 8. Steelers 9. Dolphins

I think Miami will lose tomorrow. Then as I recall, it was 2015 or somewhere around there. KC played the final week resting starters vs the Chargers as a 14.5 point underdog and nearly won, losing in OT. It’s a divisional game and KC does not care about the Bengals as much as people like to think. As much as they don’t want to deal with Burrow, they also know we will have to deal with him first. I’m sure they would be more than fine with the proposition of Burrow taking care of the Bills instead of them having to do so. Also sure having a B squad knock off a divisional rival would feel pretty damn good. I don’t think KC wins, but crazier things have certainly happened.

A high motor defensive end from Nebraska

One other interesting thing I just thought of with Pederson. He played with Favre for a long time which has been a fairly common Allen comp.

The year before Pederson, Jacksonville ranked 32nd in points. His first year they ranked 7th. Eagles went from 20th to 9th to 1st. He hasn't been able to maintain a high level of success after that initial surge. He's not HC material. He doesn't have the personality for it. But he checks a lot of boxes. Worked with some great minds, has a had a lot of success in the league, and won't be poached immediately.

We could do a lot worse than Pederson. I actually like that thought as he could stick around for awhile.

I will also add for every ounce of athletic ability given to Lamar he had to trade away equal amounts of physical appearance. He has to be one of the uglier dudes to ever lace them up. Which is fine by me, I eat red meat and bang fine straight women, however the league deserves a more appealing QB like Joshua.

I agree with this. Manning won two early, then finished 2nd and 3rd not getting another until he won the Super Bowl. I wouldn’t say it’s a guaranteed rule but I think an element exists with voting where it’s like, you fooled me. I’m not going to do this right away again unless I have no choice and this year they certainly do. Then you also have Burrow mucking it up from a statistic standpoint. It makes it sort of like, well, all three are about as good as it gets statistically (even if Allen is a hair behind). Really, all three have produced MVP years statistically. Which sort of leads us to where we are. Allen has just produced more MVP moments. His team is doing the best. He has the least to work with of the three and has done more on his own. Which I think gives him the nod. With that can we also say Ravens or even Bengals fans have some reason to B word? Well sure, if Allen put up a year like Burrow or Lamar and didn’t win we would think it’s a damn travesty. For those that think it’s already happened like that, the voters hate INT’s, always have. I don’t know of any recent winner under a 3 to 1 TD to INT passing the ball. If people want to include rushing stats to get the 3 to 1 that’s fine, but what I’m saying is I don’t believe it has happened in modern NFL history from a passing standpoint point. The voters would take 28 and 5 vs 40 and 12 as an example. Allen should get it this year and after this game from Lamar I almost think it’s a formality. He needed a truly special performance and it was just sort of meh.

With a defensive first HC it’s unlikely we will ever have the continuity on offense we would like. If you’re OC of an Allen led offense and you aren’t getting HC interviews by year 2 you likely shouldn’t be here We will not bring in any alphas OC’s who are recent HC’s.

Jackson= better stats Allen= better record Allen= bigger moments Allen= worse talent

I thought Linval Joseph did well here.

He had Luke Kuechly in Carolina and then went on to spend a premium asset on Edwards. He doesn't want Reggie Ragland and I don't think he wants Bernard either. He wants a physical freak and is willing to invest to get it. We just had so many priorities this offseason and likely next as well, I'm not sure we can afford to go that direction.

My concern with the Ravens is our success was during the Greg Roman era. We have only played them one time in Monkens system and Lamar has been in MVP contention both years they have been in it. Not to mention they have the #1 ranked EPA defense in football since week 8. The Ravens are a damn good team if Lamar performs adequately. Which isn't to say I want anything to do with the Bengals, I just can't help but dismiss our previous performances vs Baltimore in the Greg Roman era. I don't think they're worth any warm and fuzzies at this point.

Regardless if you use it, EPA is more accurate in forecasting future results than Yards or Points. Since week 8 we are 19th in EPA defense and 30th when excluding turnovers. So if we fail to generate a turnover (as has been the case in most our playoff losses) we should expect about the league worse result. Anytime you can adjust for trials it makes it more accurate. Which is why yard per play is more valuable than yards as a future predicator. EPA takes that concept further. I also agree on using per drive data if possible. It's just logical to do so. In no situations is one thing perfect but you use the best indicators the most intelligent ways you can. In that, I have never used Yards or Points.

I think most of us are guys that would like to go somewhere warm where we are featured more

And yet I think only two of those guys have seen a pro bowl. The fact is we have a lot of above average players. Very few great ones.

He is becoming the Ertz of defense

Because I’m showing you that teams consistently overcome the random it’s a straw man argument? By all means, enlighten me.