I have a little horse in the race for this thought process. Bovada is not putting up a line they don't think is accurate. They have it it at -220 for Lamar. So about 65% implied odds. Which makes sense with the AP history. But with that, Allen closing the year at -200 or better and still losing would be just as unprecedented as anything else. So to say he can't win now just based on the 1st team AP always winning, well, I don't think anybody knows right now and I would just throw out the historical info. I would give Lamar 60% likelihood or so, but this thing is not locked up. Your scenario is absolutely possible.