Mikie2times

Vince Young is averaging a sack every 20.62 drop backs.

I don't see people not showing up in 2006, maybe 2007 if we have another bad year, but not 2006. TD will go crazy this off-season, he has to, because another bad year and he's probably out. We have a deep following, and most will probably be willing to shell out for tickets again if TD makes some popular moves.

From a financial standpoint TD runs the Bills very efficiently, and he brought with him a fairly lofty reputation as General Manager. For Ralph TD was the perfect hire, it brought the expectation of winning to the fans, and likely financial gain. Those two things probably head the list of things an owner looks for in a GM, so Ralph decided to bring TD aboard and all appeared to be rosy. Fast forward to now and you know the records. The original plan of TD bringing a winning team to Buffalo hasn't worked out, but the financial gains are even higher then expected. I believe Ralph is a man that cares about his legacy; he cares about how people remember him, and how much he can leave to his family. During the TD tenure Ralph was making that extra fortune for his family, and despite the losing he had a GM with the nickname Teflon. For the past four years we've blamed coaches, players, and the GM. Now TD is under a lot of pressure, and the statistical disaster that has been his tenure so far is on the front page. Say what you will about TD’s individual moves, but the case reporters can make against him is overwhelming if they’re on the attack. Now people are starting to think if this is what TD has done, why isn’t Ralph going to do anything about it. For the first time in a long time, some people are pointing fingers at the owner, not the GM, coach, or players. That hurts Ralph’s legacy and that isn't something he is going to tolerate as he continues to age. The question is will enough fingers be pointing at Ralph by the end of 2005 to overtake the financial benefits of TD? Realistically I see those things balancing out at the end of the season with TD sticking around another year. If he turns it around in 2006 he will most likely stay for the long term, if not I see it being his last season as GM.

That was great

Over Harrington’s career he averages a sack every 23.09 drop backs. Compared to the league average of 14.37 that number is outstanding. Perhaps a good deal of that can be attributed to Morningwhig and Mooch running the west coast, but a number that high doesn't occur unless the line is pass blocking well, and the QB is getting rid of it early. Harrington and the Lions line might be doing a great job at avoiding sacks, but that doesn't mean they throw efficiently, run block, play defense, etc.. What's going on in Detroit involves Harrington, much like our problems last season involved Bledsoe, but just because a player is involved in the problems doesn't neccesarily mean their the only ones causing them.

Is this for real? Nobody felt compelled to defend Eli because they were to busy calling him the biggest best since Tony Mandrich. His performance last year nearly got him thrown out of New York City. You think the Bills fans freaked out? Try putting on an even worse show then JP in a media city like that. It wasn't like all the Giants fans sat around patiently knowing that their Peyton Manning would emerge. The guy was under a ton of pressure, and media and fan base was questioning if he could get it turned around. Even if you refuse to allow that into some of the faultiest logic I ever seen, how does the fan, or media’s need to defend somebody have anything to do with a QB's future chance at a success? Are you implying that if a players pedigree was higher then JP's we would all be comfortable enough with a poor performance to not question his ability? Eli may come from the same gene pool as Archie and Peyton, but the consensus was Losman being the most physically gifted QB in the draft that year, just not the most polished. I can't say for sure he's going to be a great QB, but I know for a fact neither can anybody else, especially not somebody basing their logic on an obscure opinion that makes little sense, and has no evidence to back it up with.

Duh..... It is pass attempts per sack; I guess I just had a blonde moment. I'll edit the first post.

How many sacks a team allows in a given year has a lot to do with how many passes a team attempts. So if you’re going to evaluate an offensive line, a much better indication of their ability is average number of pass attempts per sack, as opposed to overall sacks allowed. What I did was find the average number of pass attempts per sack for every team and year from 2002-2005. Below is the best 15 seasons, and worst 15 seasons teams have registered during that time frame. I also combined each teams stats to find it's overal pass attempts per sack average since 2002. Keep in mind the NFL average for this statistic from 2002-2005 is a sack every 14.37 attempts. Top 15 Year......Team...............Pass Attempts per Sack 2003......Detroit...........................53.45 2004......Green Bay......................42.71 2005......Indianapolis....................37.89 2004......Indianapolis....................37.64 2004......Denver...........................34.73 2003......Indianapolis.....................29.95 2005......Green Bay.......................28.86 2002......Detroit............................28.85 2002......San Francisco..................25.95 2003......Tampa Bay......................25.74 2002......Indianapolis.....................25.70 2003.......Kansas City.....................25.52 2003......Green Bay.......................24.89 2005.......Cincinnati.......................24.07 2002.......Tennessee.......................23.81 Bottom 15 Year......Team...............Pass attempts per sack 2005......Houston.............................5.76 2002......Houston.............................5.88 2004......Chicago.............................7.14 2005......Minnesota..........................7.57 2004......Atlanta..............................7.90 2002......Dallas................................8.72 2005......San Francisco.....................8.84 2005......NY Jets...............................9.11 2004.......NY Giants...........................9.13 2005.......Buffalo...............................9.44 * 2004.......Houston.............................9.61 2003.......Buffalo...............................9.84 * 2004.......Pittsburgh...........................9.94 2003.......Baltimore..........................10.12 2005.......St. Louis............................10.51 2002-2005 (From worst to first) TEAM........Pass Attempts per sack (2002-2005) Houston …………7.8 Chicago …………10.5 Buffalo ………….10.7 * Minnesota………10.8 Atlanta ………….11.2 Baltimore………11.8 Dallas ………….12.1 St. Louis…………12.5 Pittsburgh………12.6 Cleveland………13.2 Washington……13.4 NY Jets ………….13.5 Arizona ………….13.5 New Orleans…..13.6 Carolina………….14.2 NY Giants…………14.4 San Francisco….14.4 Jacksonville………14.6 Tampa Bay………14.7 Philadelphia………14.8 Miami………….......14.9 Oakland …………..15.4 Seattle ………….. 15.5 Cincinnati………….16.7 Tennessee…………18.0 New England……..18.6 Kansas City……….18.6 Denver …………...18.7 San Diego…………..20.5 Detroit …………......21.5 Green Bay…………..27.8 Indianapolis…………31.2

Thanks for the kind words, here is the category %Positive Plays as it compares to completition %, If you would like to see others let me know. These aren't the actual values of the stat, just how each player ranked overall in both areas. In the NFL QB rating completition % makes up 25% of the overall value. Name----------------------------%Positive Plays--------------------COMP % Carson Palmer--------------------------1--------------------------------1 Peyton Manning-------------------------2--------------------------------2 Marc Bulger-----------------------------9-------------------------------- 3 Drew Brees------------------------------7--------------------------------4 Brian Griese-----------------------------5--------------------------------5 Daunte Culpepper----------------------15-------------------------------6 Drew Bledsoe----------------------------8--------------------------------7 Kurt Warner-----------------------------11-------------------------------8 Brett Favre-------------------------------6--------------------------------9 Matt Hasselbeck-------------------------10-------------------------------10 Trent Green------------------------------14------------------------------11 Steve McNair----------------------------12--------------------------------12 Anthony Wright--------------------------16-------------------------------13 David Carr-------------------------------20-------------------------------14 Jake Plummer----------------------------4--------------------------------15 Ben Roethlisberger----------------------13-------------------------------16 Tom Brady-------------------------------17-------------------------------17 Jake Delhomme-------------------------19--------------------------------18 Trent Dilfer-------------------------------21-------------------------------19 Donovan McNabb------------------------18--------------------------------20 Chris Simms-----------------------------24--------------------------------21 Byron Leftwich---------------------------22--------------------------------22 Mark Brunell-----------------------------23--------------------------------23 Michael Vick------------------------------3---------------------------------24 Joey Harrington-------------------------26---------------------------------25 Josh McCown----------------------------25---------------------------------26 Aaron Brooks----------------------------27---------------------------------27 Kerry Collins-----------------------------29--------------------------------28 Kyle Orton--------------------------------28--------------------------------29 Eli Manning-------------------------------31---------------------------------30 Gus Frerotte------------------------------32--------------------------------31 J.P. Losman------------------------------30---------------------------------32

Run the Damn Ball/AKC- I would include defensible passes, or tipped INT's, the problem is I don't have access to that information as NFL stats are still fairly limited in depth. This is just an attempt at a more accurate system using every variable I have access to, still a much more accurate system could be made with more detailed stat keeping. MDH- 50% of the normal NFL QB rating is made up of yards per attempt, and Completition %. Now I'm not going to argue that YAC success isn't influenced by accuracy, we all know QB's that deliver a well placed ball will allow receivers to gain additional yards. The problem is once a pass is either caught, or incomplete, the QB has no additional impact on the outcome of the play. With half the standard passer rating being made up of completition% and yards per attempt it leaves short system passers a much easier path to boost the ratings. With what we have available we can't do much to change the higher accuracy numbers, and accuracy still needs to play a roll in any system, but we can still take away the credit a QB receives for having a 5 yard slant turn into a 30 yards play. In terms of measuring performance, a QB that actually completed a 30 yard pass threw the air probably had a much more difficult completition then a 5 yards slant, so I give that QB a small boost in his overal ratings.

At this point the Bills are probably past determining if Holcomb might play. Your first year QB is showing solid improvement and the Bills have pretty much fizzled out of the playoff picture. It's a no brainer at this point.

In his first 4 starts JP's line looked like this 45 of 94 47.8% 433 Yards 1 TD 2 INT Since then JP played from the middle of the second quarter on against KC, and started against SD, and Carolina. So for you math majors that’s about 2 1/2 games. During that time his line looks like this 45 of 81 55.5% 502 Yards 3 TD 2 INT Mid 50's completition% is more then ok for a first year guy, and he's starting to pick his yardage totals up as well. No doubt he is making good progress, I just hope he can have a little red zone success to bring into next season. A multi dimensional QB like JP has the ability to make the red zone a strength if he keeps developing.

Here are some numbers that I thought might surprise, or confirm opinions. Some explanation of the stats is included below, but a full explanation is in the first post. System QB? -Tom Brady had the biggest adjustment to his yardage total when subtracting his YAC yards. His average per attempt with YAC places him 6th in the league, without YAC he ranks 13th. Same Old Drew -Bledsoe ranks 25th in turnover %. Running for his life - JP Losman is second in the NFL in Rushing Attempts per drop back. He runs 12.5% of the time, while Vick runs 21.7% of the time. Big Ben, Deceptively good - One common trend I found in teams that score a lot of points, and don't score a lot of points, is turnover%, and TD%. While big ben might not have the gaudiest statistics he simply dominates in those two categories, ranking 2nd in turnover%, and 1st in TD%. Not exactly Trent Dilfer - Kyle Orton's 10 Fumbles, and 12 INT's rank him dead last in Turnover%. He puts the ball at risk on 6.6% of his drop backs. Eli could be more efficient. - % Positive plays takes into account the number of drop backs a QB has taken, and the number of times a positive result was achieved. Positive results include pass completions, or rushing plays (to register as a rush the play must be positive). Eli Manning registers a positive play only 52% of the time, ranking 31st in the league. Also of note is out of Eli's 7 fumbles, only 1 has been lost, a clear indicator of the breaks that can happen in football.

A poster mentioned in an earlier thread just how out of whack the QB rating system is. I was thinking the same thing and was working on developing a more accurate system. That post got me to finish it off tonight, and I just wanted to see how people feel about the approach. The following is how I arrived at each statistic for my rating, and how it compares to the NFL rating system. My ratings are in bold, and feel free to ask questions as I'm sure I left a few things out. % Positive plays= Rushes+Completitions/Attempts+ Sacks+Rushes NFL passer Rating system= Completitions/Attempts TD%= Rushing TD's + Passing TD's/Attempts+Sacks+Rushes NFL passer Rating System= TD passes/Attempts Yards Per Attempt= (Passing Yards- Yards After Catch)+Rushing Yards/Attempts+Sacks+Rushes NFL passer Rating= Yards/Attempts Turnover%= INT+FUMBLES/Attempts+Sacks+Rushes NFL Passer Rating= INT/Attempts TD's a Game= Rushing TD's+Passing TD's/Games Turnovers a Game= INT's+FUM/ Games Played Running Ability- Rushing Yards/Games To come up with how I weighted each stat I measured how much each stat was correlated with points above the league average and below league average based on 4 years of data. The order of importance went TD%, TURN%, TD/GAME, TURNOVER/GAME, adjusted yards per attempt, % Positive plays, and Running ability. Here is how the 2005 QB's shape up so far. Name----------------RATE Carson Palmer------102.8 Peyton Manning ----102.0 Ben Roethlisberger--97.2 Jake Plummer------- 89.3 Matt Hasselbeck-----84.4 Michael Vick----------82.1 Drew Brees-----------81.9 Byron Leftwich-------80.3 Tom Brady---------- 80.2 Marc Bulger----------79.7 Steve McNair---------78.3 Drew Bledsoe--------76.6 Mark Brunell---------73.6 Trent Green----------72.3 Eli Manning------------72.1 Donovan McNabb----72.0 Brett Favre-----------70.2 Jake Delhomme------70.2 Aaron Brooks---------70.0 Brian Griese----------69.3 Kurt Warner-----------64.9 Kerry Collins----------64.4 Chris Simms----------62.5 Josh McCown----------61.5 David Carr------------60.4 Anthony Wright-------58.6 Trent Dilfer------------57.4 Daunte Culpepper----56.5 Gus Frerotte----------52.9 J.P. Losman-----------51.1 Joey Harrington-------51.1 Kyle Orton-------------45.4

Only because my brilliant mind must be toned down for other people to understand me

It could be a legit excuse, but I just don't think it adds up. I still smoke a little bit, but if I was going to completely quit I certainly wouldn't keep my bongs, and pipes around to temp me. I also wouldn't be very inclined to be hanging around smokers, or allow any pipes in my car that could get me in trouble. I could see why he wouldn't want his kids to find that stuff but wouldn't it be a little more logical to just throw it in the trash? Does the guy think his kids are going to go rummaging threw the garbage to find the pipes they don't even know about? Perhaps I might believe it if he never had a history, but Irvin does, and it's a history filled with doing much heavier stuff the pot. I really could give a crap less if the guy wants to light up from time to time, I just don't believe his story, because it's practically the same one everybody gives if they get caught with something, and the same one I gave my father back in the day. I just doubt most people would actually own up to that, especially a high profile guy who’s sworn to be clean for years.

Henry/Willis I did this comparison the other day, it shows how he compares to Henry's two strong years in 2002 and 2003. The thread also has some additional debate on the subject.

Pinning that colostomy bag on one player is like saying it was all Bledsoe’s fault

The Bills defense was 1st in the league in 2003 and 2004 in average yards per play. That statistic is a much better overall indicator of success then yards per game, but if you want to go by yards a game we ranked 2nd both years. From those numbers a logical assumption would be that the defense is pretty good, but as you pointed out the strength of your opponents does matter. So I visted FootballOutsiders.com Who created a ranking system that pretty much destroys every other in existence. It's so good in fact that a major media outlet in Fox adopted the rankings for it's power rankings. I'm not going to get into the details oh how exactly they do it because you can check out the link, but they do include a heavy adjustment for strength of schedule. According to them the Bills ranked 7th in 2003, and 1st in 2004 in total defense. So now we have actual facts that say our defense was pretty damn good those two years, and we have a ton of evidence to support that our defense is pretty awful this season. The DE's remained the same for both the good and bad defenses, while the DT's went from Adams and Pat, to Anderson and Bannon. Sounds a little more logical to me that it’s the DT’s.

Seriously

Seems pretty close to the team I would like to see assembled. Here are any changes I would make to the starters. WR- David Givens for PP LT- One of many candidates available in the First Round LG- Gandy C- LeCharles Bentley RT Peters DT Grady Jackson (Assuming we stick with the same defensive philosophy) Notes- Ngata is the guy I really want at DT in the draft, I would also like to see Allen replace Clements if we trade him or he walks. Ideally I would like to trade him to get back in the first round which you have us doing. Good Job

That’s not right, we would lose common opponent tiebreaker which comes before the conference tiebreaker in games played within the division. Essentially we need to win out and win the division tiebreaker, because we have no chance at the common game tiebreaker anymore.

Depending on how you look at it anything’s possible. Buffalo is either 2 games out of a division tie (only winning the tiebreaker if NE loses to Miami or the Jets, and the Bills beat Miami, Jets, and NE). Or One game out of the 5th pick in the draft. As of now the 5th pick has 3 losses, and going by the current draft order the Bills SOS is only more difficult then one team in the top 18 picks. That team is the Titans who have played a schedule .001 points more difficult then Buffalos. For those that don't know reverse strength of schedule is used to break draft order ties.

The difference between a 4.9 and a 4.53 is massive. The fastest players in the NFL run around 4.3's at the combine, which is about two tenths of a second faster then Watson. Peters is four tenths of a second slower then Watson, so take the difference between Watson and the fastest players in the league and multiply it by 2, and that’s the difference in speed from Peters to Watson. As for game speed that is the reason Peters can't play TE. The 40 measures straight line speed, which Peters does exceptionally well at for such a large man. But the 40 doesn't properly measure his football speed, which for a TE would be snail like. He doesn't have much agility, or acceleration, and doesn't move in and out of his cuts with any fluidness. That is of course measuring him against other TE's, for OL he fairs really well in all of these areas. They stopped giving the heaviest kid the ball around elementary school for good reason. If we did start him at TE he would be a slow glorified OL, with no good knees left from DB's cut tackling him. We already have a couple TE's that fill that role; the goal is to find one that can give us more then that (Everett PLEASE!!)

C- Its Teague’s last contact year and I would be surprised to see the Bills work out a deal to keep him. The Saints OL hasn't exactly been great this year but LeCharles has built a solid reputation, and is a player I really want the Bills to pursue. RG- CV is a solid player who's getting old, and it would be difficult to count on him much past next year. With Bentley at C, Preston can take the experience he got this year at RG and be groomed to replace CV after the 2006 season. LG- I'll gladly take Hutch but with Alexander not around to use up Seattle’s Franchise tag Hutchinson will probably get it. Gandy's most recent action before signing with the Bills was at LG in Chicago, and unlike some I feel like he has been one of the Bills best OL this year (I know, not saying much). I say we move Gandy over to LG, and explore LT options via the draft. LT- If PP has first round value so does Nate Clements. I'm not delusional about how much Nate means to the Bills, he is an outstanding player and top 5 NFL corner. The problem is a CB loses its value, just like many other positions will, when you’re getting killed in the trenches. Replace Nate with Will Allen, or Jerry Azumah, and trade him away for a 1st rounder we can use to address LT. RT- Peters has looked like a converted TE in his first few starts, but who really expected him to look much better then that at this point? The Bills already have a ton of holes to fill on both lines so hopefully by the end of the year Peters will show enough at RT that we don't need to find a replacement. DE- Back when this defense was among the best in the NFL the combination of Chris Kelsey, Ryan Denney, and Aaron Schobel led the charge at DE. Now when this defense is among the worst in the NFL a more experienced Chris Kelsey, Ryan Denney, and Aaron Schobel are again leading the charge at DE. The point is the high motor guys aren't killing us at DE. It wouldn't hurt the Bills to add talent at this spot but OL, and DT is a much more pressing matter. DT- If Grey's around we need a fat SOB to eat up blockers, Grady Jackson is not an elite DT, but he is a fat SOB that can eat up blockers. For his partner I make Haloti Ngata (Oregon’s DT) our first round pick. Jackson, Ngata, Anderson, and Edwards will certainly be more effective then what we have at this point. In just about every scenario I can come up with have Rookies, and FA's filling a big part of the equation. This rebuilding probably won't happen overnight, or be complete by 2006. That said we can still make the lines strong enough to not be such a glaring weakness, and hopefully start the foundation of good line play or years to come.