Mikie2times

1. The Patriots don't have a devastating rushing attack but Corey Dillion is still one of the leagues toughest backs to bring down, and this defense has really had problems tackling RB's this year. We got gashed by Oakland and the Jets who happened to rank 25th and 29th in rushing, we won't stop Dillion even if he is a little banged up. As far as passing goes many think Brady hasn't had great protection this year but they still rank second in sacks per pass attempt. He averages a sack every 33 drop backs, while the even more immobile Kerry Collins averaged one every 15 drop backs. If we couldn't pressure Collins effectively how will we pressure an even more difficult QB to get to? 2. Think about answer one, and consider what Mularkeys MO has been when we get down. The Patriots offensively are WAY better the Oakland, a top 5 unit. They will score, and MM will stop running the football and turn to the leagues 31st ranked passing offense. This is the exact tendency that got us into the rest of the Sunday night massacres and it's shaping up to happen again. 3. Even if we wanted to throw deep we can't, either the line won't protect, Kelly won’t get it their, or JP will miss on it. If you don't count the throw to Evans in the first quarter of the Texans game we haven't hit a pass this year that sailed 35 yards in the air. New England will stack the box, blitz, play bump and run, or flood the short zones, and nothing we have done this season indicates we can beat that look. You're right about one thing, if Buffalo wins this game it would be very improbable, but I just don't see this team doing the improbable. This is not a team that has done anything improbable on the road against good teams since TD came here. That is a defining test of a team, and we've never come close to passing it in the past, and won't with an even worse team this season.

Good post I still think the Patriots can beat any team in the NFL despite the average start. New England might not be as good as last years team but as you pointed out the schedule they played was very difficult. They still have one of the leagues strongest passing games, and it's only a matter of time before Dillion gets going.

The Bills have been ranked 25, 22, and now 31st in yards per pass attempt the past three years. Sure the yards per game are influenced by a team running out the clock, or a good defense, but that doesn't affect yards per pass. As an example the Steelers (often running out the clock, good defense) are currently ranked 24th in yards passing per game, but first in yards per pass attempt. They may not throw very often, but when they do they have great effectiveness. Buffalo is the complete opposite, ranked both 31st in pass yardage and 31st in yards per pass attempt. It's not only that we haven’t hit 300 in 35+ games; it's that we haven't even had a 200 yard passer in the last 11 games. At some point in the NFL your passing game is going to be called upon to produce yardage, and the disparity amongst teams is simply too small to not be able to pass. Watch the elite teams play and it's like a chess game as they both try and find any way to create yards. When a team can so easily take away the threat of a passing game it makes everything else that much harder.

Why, I see no reason why we can't stop one of the leagues best running attacks. Bills 42-7 in a route

It's startling isn't it? I mean we could really score that year, especially early on, but the defense was just horrible. I always contended that was the best offense we had under TD, and paired with last years defense would have fielded a strong playoff contender. All off-season we screamed defense, and from then on we played pretty solid defense for two years. Right now I think those memories of 2002 are so distant that we couldn't draw a comparison, we just simply felt the defense would be heading in a direction soon, and that direction would be more like last season. The fact is Takeo may never return to the player he was, we will probably lose Nate, and the rest of the defense is aging quickly. This defense is not only resembling 2002, but it's even worse on the ground, and that was our Achilles heal that year. If TD survives the media and fan onslaught I expect a ton of noise this off-season, ala 2003.

I know the fishy line theory, and it's true, but this line is far from that and either was the UVA-NC game. The Patriots have fallen from public team status in most bettors minds, and statistically should be around a 7 to 9 point favorite. Keep in mind the average joe bettor isn't aware of the Bills Sunday night woes, and probably doesn't appreciate just how badly we've been destroyed by the Patriots in Gillette (even the scores don't do it justice) The Bills haven't had a surprising road upset in several years, and in gut check games against good teams we simply haven't come close. I hit it at 7.5 and that number will probably rise over 10 soon, obviously no bet is a lock but this one is pretty solid. As for UVA-UNC, UNC has actually been very solid this year with the exception of the Louisville game. I also had the line on par with the bookies which tells me that it wasn't a trap game, and more about Virginia being overvalued off a huge upset of the Seminoles. Had Virginia lost that game the line would of probably been UNC -3 given the circumstances.

If the Bills want to compete next season they better put him in if the Patriots beat us. We gave it a run with Kelly, but if we go 3-5 heading into the bye we have zero chance catching the Patriots given the schedules. I can accept one more freaking year with no playoffs, hell I already accepted it, but I can't accept the QB position being in disarray going into next year. If the team wants to give up because of the move fug um, every year teams go threw this exact same thing and most still fight to the end.

It's not exactly like the man that assembled this team would admit any midseason failures, or any GM for that matter, but I'm really starting to get pissed at listening to the same stuff we heard back when GW was around. Can you imagine if we could have a rebuttal for the crap that comes out of this guy’s mouth during the Q&A segment every week? Here is a couple of my rebuttles for NFL's king of spin, feel free to post yours. Question: why can’t the Bills stop the run on defense and put up points in the second half on offense. Tom Donahoe: Our biggest problems to date have been inconsistency on both sides of the ball. Many of our problems defensively have resulted from poor tackling. Offensively we have shown flashes of the ability to move the ball and control the clock. What we have to strive for is to develop more consistency as a football team. Rebuttal: Considering inconsistency has been the excuse you have given to us fans for several years at what point do you take responsibility for not bringing in more consistent players? I also agree that we haven't been tackling well, but isn't tackling a fundamental part of defense, and if so who was responsible for assembling a defense that is not fundamentally sound? Question: How do you propose the Bills find consistent and long-term success given that the sub-par/under talented/overwhelmed offensive line has not been addressed at all in many years? Tom Donahoe: Each year over the last four we have made adjustments and improvements to our offensive line. We have done it through draft choices as Mike Williams is an example of a number one pick, and we have also addressed the line through free agency. Our line has proven to be very good run blockers and we have had thousand yard rushers in three of the last four seasons and are on pace to have another one this year. Our pass protection has been inconsistent. Rebuttal: In your time as Bills GM you have drafted 2 OL in the first three rounds of the draft, one is no longer on this team, the other is a RT who played 2 full games this year, and currently makes more then any other player on the roster. We have made adjustments in each of the past four years, but isn't this an indication that each year we didn't have the right group of starters? In addition 18 teams had a thousand yard rusher last season, and the whole league would have one if every team had one primary back. In a 12 game season this could be something to hang your hat on, but not in today’s NFL.

I know I'm not a true Bills fan, blab bla. I'll be rooting for the Bills next weekend as always, but I look at gambling as an investment and this is a strong play. Morale will be low as this Bills team leaves Oakland, and I really doubt things will change much before the bye week. We looked like a baffled and beaten team on Sunday, and have appeared completely lost on the road this year. Enter in a New England team that has heard about the first place Bills all week, off a loss, and the Bye. Add in the Sunday night theory, the Teddy Bruschi effect, and the fact that a loss by the Patriots would give the Bills the division lead. Like I said a Bills win would mean more then winning the bet, but money's money, and New England 7.5 is as solid as they come. Here’s to eating some crow next Sunday night!!

WOW....

skins -12.5

I don't know if this was directed at me, or just in general, but I agree that the losses shouldn't all be pinned on JP. When JP was in the QB position wasn't getting any production, and the rest of the team wasn't playing that well. With Holcomb in he's been able to do enough when you combine the improved play elsewhere. It may not have been all JP's fault, but as the coaches recognized we couldn't be a playoff caliber team getting that kind of production at the QB position.

We had two choices at the start of this season, take your lumps, or compete for a spot. Sure everybody likes to document Pittsburgh as accomplishing both at the same time, but it's pretty obvious that was a rare situation. Had we started Kelly all along we would probably be sitting at 4-2, or perhaps 5-1. The only game we didn’t have a prayer was TB. Instead after 4 weeks we tried righting the ship, and the result might be the double whammy, JP's progression getting hurt, and missing the playoffs. I fault the Bills for not making a decisive decision either way, not for making the change. It's not as if this was some unforeseeable event, hell I even posted on it prior to the season. Of course the one way to save face is by making the playoffs, because if they fall just short it will even further magnify this mistake.

I'm far from somebody who thinks Kelly Holcomb is a savior, but he gives us a chance right now, and JP was not doing that. We had two choices, let JP play and learn, which would likely give us a no chance this season, or let Holcomb play until we get knocked out of contention. Neither decision is incorrect, it's just that one provides more instant gratification then the other.

Nobody can tell for sure whether or not JP would have turned the corner by now, but to even say it's a 50-50 chance is a huge leap. JP was playing bad, even worse then the majority of first year starters do. Here is a comparison I did a few weeks ago on the first four starts of recent QB's. Group 1 is players I don’t think we want JP to be associated with, Group 2 are player we would like JP to become. JP Losman- 48% 433 Yards 1TD 2INT Group 1 Harrington - 54% 957 Yards 5TD 5INT Krenzel- 46% 603 Yards 3TD 5INT Boller- 53% 468 Yards 2TD 6INT Carr- 45% 519 Yards 4TD 6INT Grossman- 50% 664 Yards 2TD 3INT McNown- 61% 851 Yards 3TD 2INT Ramsey- 51% 858 Yards 6TD 4INT Dorsey- 55% 755 Yards 5TD 7INT Average- 52% 709Yards 3.75 TD 4.75 INT Group 2 Brees- 59% 608 Yards 4TD 2INT Brady- 61% 820 Yards 5TD 0INT Lefwhich- 56% 981 Yards 4TD 8INT E. Manning- 39% 450 Yards 1TD 6 INT Pennington- 77% 1005 Yards 6TD 2INT Big Ben- 71% 761 Yards 5TD 2INT Palmer- 55% 875 Yards 3 TD 7INT Average- 60% 785 Yards 4TD 3.86INT Out of all 15 QB’s JP is last in yards, tied for last in TD’s, and has a better completion % then only three other QB’s. Of course these statistics guarantee nothing in terms of his future, but considering his first four game put him below Ken Dorsey, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, and Josh McNown, it would be a huge stretch to think he would give us a better chance to win in Oakland then KH. The one encouraging thing I take from this is Eli Manning, check out those god awful numbers. Sure these stats give us a barometer to measure his progress, but some players just break the mold, let’s hope JP is one of those guys.

You rock!! I’ve been following Madden 360 and have seen 15 or so screens and a couple videos, but this is the first I've seen of any Bills, great find!

I agree that if the division winner is below .500 then a third wild card should be awarded, and the below .500 winner should not go. Consider the NFL North this year, and ask yourself if any of this team deserve the playoffs if they come in at 7-9. You have Detroit 2-3, Chicago 2-3, Vikings 1-4, and Green Bay 1-4. The Vikings have been about as bad as it gets this year and yet they sit 1 game out of first place and a home playoff game. If the division winners can't meet this minimal requirement then fug em, let a team that deserves it more go.

Wow, and the Vikings still wen't after him?

I'm not somebody looking past Oakland, and I doubt this Bills are either. Throw out Oakland’s record, this is not any easy win with Moss in or not. I think the ST will be the deciding factor in a very close low scoring game.

You bring up a good point Kelly. The Kelly Holcomb led passing attack is turning into a YAC type passing game. This compliments our ground attack, and increases our 3rd down % and time of possession. Parrish seems like a player built for this roll and should really add to the Bills passing game. On a side note anybody else really bummed out about Everett? I know it happened forever ago but an athletic TE is exactly what we needed for this type of offense. Who knows if he would have been a player this year, I'm just praying his injury doesn't hurt his athleticism for next season.

I don't like the fact that people are guaranteeing a loss either. As a team we have the intangibles that can help you beat a team you probably shouldn't, namely we have great ST and force turnovers. I don't think you can ever completely rule out the chance at victory, but I don't see a problem with Bills fans recognizing the odds against us, which do appear to be great in this situation. Sure the Patriots are not playing like the same old Patriots, but the Bills haven't exactly been clicking on all cylinders either. The deck is certainly stacked against us, but as they say anything can happen in the NFL.

pshhh..... Impose your man will Bill, J/K. I'm young, live with my girlfriend, and don't have anywhere close the responsibilities you do being a married father of three. That said I still would much rather watch the games at home. The bills games are a sacred 3 hour event for me, and I prefer them distraction free and void of other team’s fans.

Thanks Cinci, I wasn't sure many people would read the preview with it being a few posts down. For what it's worth the first game I have used these stats with was the St Louis/Colts game and it had Indianapolis -17. That was spot on, but I will admit it was pretty far off on the total. Who would have thought the Rams would throw up 17 in the first few minutes of that one? For all you gamblers here is my lock of the week (if such a thing exists) 49ers at Redskins- The Redskins -12.5. These statistics are being influenced positively in the 49ers direction because of Rattay starting a few games, kind of like our passing stats our being dragged down by Losman starting a few games. Despite that the Redskins still show being a favorite of 20+ points. Statistically the Redskins hold a major advantage, but as any good handicapper knows it’s not all about statistics. The skins are coming off back to back road losses so this one is a must win for them. To make matters worse for the 49ers Alex Smith makes his first road start against a dominating Washington pass defense. In Smiths only other start of the year he threw 5 INT’s at home against the Colts. Don’t be afraid of the big spread, the Redskins will cover by a TD or more.

Here is the Bills at Oakland Match up using the adjusted statistics. Rather then post a unreadable chart I just did a write up including some of the highlights. Raiders on Offense The raiders with Randy Moss didn’t pass with much consistency, without him these stats plummet further. Oakland completes only 56% threw the air, and when matched up against our secondary should be held to a passer rating under 70. While the outlook is rosy for the pass defense the same can't be said for the run defense. Oakland isn't a good rushing team, but matched up against us they should average around 4.3 a clip. With Moss out expect Oakland to try and establish the ground game. They saw us let one of the leagues worst ground games torch us, and will certainly try play to our ground weakness over our pass strength. Key to winning: Force turnovers and stop third down conversions. Oakland is ranked first in not turning the ball over, Buffalo is ranked fourth in forcing takeaways, something’s got to give. Despite how horrible Buffalo's third down defense is, Oakland has been equally bad in that department. Oakland average of 27.6% will kill an offense, and they don't pass with much efficiency, but Buffalo is 26th on 3rd down defense so both coaches are looking to right the ship this week. Bills on Offense This weekend will be a real test for this offense. We run the ball well with an average of 4.14, but Oakland holding teams to 3.75 per rush. Hopefully the addition of a CV and MW will pay dividends in the run game for the second straight week. As for our passing game the games in which JP played have really pulled down our averages, so it’s difficult to measure how effective this unit is. I have Oakland’s pass defense as the 17th best in the league, and 21st in QB sacks. They certainly aren’t world beaters, but they play around the league average, and being on the road should make it a challenge for the Bills passing attack. Key to Winning: Keep the completion % high in the passing game. Holcomb has been able to keep our offense is manageable third downs by hitting on a high rate of his short passes. Oakland’s pass defense, while average, is 5th in the league in completion %. The ground game won’t be effective all day, so Holcomb needs to continue to complete short throws and win the 3rd down battle against Oakland who ranks 21st in third down defense. Special Teams Oakland ranks 20th in Kick Returns, 30th in kick returns allowed, 22nd on Punts returns, and 21st in Punt returns allowed. Janakowski is also slumping badly as their 28th in the league in FG accuracy. Bobby April should be salivating at this match up as the Bills hold a major advantage in almost every ST category. Look for Bills ST to play a major role in this one, and Terrance to possibly return his first kick for a TD. Final Thoughts Offensively and defensively these two teams match up pretty evenly, so anybody expecting an easy win could be in for a rude awakening. Being on the road will make it a challenge, and our ST needs to take advantage of this obvious mismatch. Expect a low scoring, tightly contested game, one that will go in Buffalos direction if they take advantage of the ST mismatch. If not Oakland probably wins by a field goal and the Sunday night game in New England becomes a must win.

I used to despise Madden and called him the king of obvious, but he does a great job of breaking the game down, and you can't question his knowledge. Now that the Cowboys dynasty is long gone old Madden has grown on me a bit. As for my other quiet favorite I like Jim Nance. I hate the Patriot love fest, but he does a good job raising the drama level and that’s what his role is. Worst group hands down is the Sunday Night football crew. To bad I can't sink up the radio broadcast with the TV, I tried the internet feed before and it didn't sink up.