Mikie2times

In order to win the East we need to either have more division wins then the Patriots or beat them with our overall record. A tie won't cut it even if we beat the Patriots the second time around because they will win the common opponent tiebreaker. Here's a link called Football Outsiders, they break down games by tallying up performance in the most critical areas of football. For explanation go to the site, but the point I'm trying to convey is these rankings are about as accurate as they get. They also run baseballprospectus.com, which is baseballs best prediction publication, like I said these guys know their crap, and it's free. According to them the Patriots have established their 4-4 record against the 4th most difficult schedule in the NFL, and that doesn't count the Colts game. This SOS is calculated by their overall team rankings which are even more significant performance indicators then W/L. Conversely Buffalo has tallied their 3-5 mark against the leagues 29th ranked schedule. For the final 8 games the Patriots and Bills schedules take a drastic flip flop. The Bills play the leagues 2nd hardest schedule, while the Patriots play the leagues 24 ranked schedule. Unlike last year we don't have a cake walk in the second half, and if we couldn't tie the Patriots threw 8 with the schedules we played how the hell are we going to make up two games when the schedules flip flop against us? The never stop fighting attitude showed by some on here is admirable, and many of you feel that that attitude can only be conveyed if Holcomb is starting, but this is a time that the %’s drastically favor us getting our young QB some reps on the field. If he starts to have a Palmer like game or two towards the end of the year at least we know we have something, and can take that into next season. If he crashes and burns, and shows no signs of progress then at least we know what we don't have, and will get an early pick in the draft. Either way its better then missing the playoffs, and further clouding our QB situation next year.

The Patriots might have a ton of injuries, and are not nearly as good as last year but they won't lose 4 games with what they have left. NE has 4 losses during the first half, and have played @CAR, @PITT, SD, @ATL, @DEN, and IND. For the second half, they play 5 games against the rest of the AFC east, then they play both NO and TB who are struggling badly. The only real difficult test should be the game at Arrowhead which I expect them to lose. Perhaps they lose one more between the AFC East games, NO, and TB, but anything past that is a stretch. They won't get anywhere in the playoffs against the AFC more talented teams, but with this remmaining schedule the New Bruschi (We're not worthy!) (We're not worthy!) are still easily good enough to go 10-6.

In theory it sounds like solid move, and I'm all for shaking things up, but it might take him awhile to get adjusted to Guard. If he switches we need to be patient, of course patient’s sucks with a player making that salary, but expecting great performance out of a career T right away is a bit premature. I think all of us have come to terms that MW will never be a LT, and of course we want him to restructure, but we could have a lot more $ allocated to the line then we do right now. Even if he doesn't restructure, Villareal, Preston, Gandy, and Peters don't make a ton so the overall investment in the line would probably be around average or less. Of course this is all assuming he can stay on the field, and be a solid player at either RT or G.

I just checked on the betting pattern on my sportsbook, KC has taken 87% of the side bets. The books are really letting the public hammer KC without the line moving, BEWARE!!

This isn't last years Eagles namely because TO wasn't acting like this last year. This years Eagles are doomed either way, they went 4-3 with him, with a miracle win against the Chargers, and are 0-1 without him.

If what you say is really how it is then TO wouldn’t be a problem, but obviously NFL players don't just ignore players like TO, it does effect them. Perhaps it shouldn’t with the money they make, and I'm not disputing or arguing with that, but it does, and both teams he played for admitted that. If a team had a ton of cap space and was one player away, I might sign him to a one year deal, anything longer then that and he will kill your team.

Wow I was off, but that doesn't efefct my point. TO is obviously a big help to a team when he is not on one of his tirads, but when he is, he's not worth what it does to the team.

Your right, because the simple addition and subtraction of TO is the reason for the rise and fall of the 49ers and Eagles. The Eagles dominated for years in the NFC, and GOT to the Super Bowl last year without him. Hell they played more games without him then with him last year. But also worth mentioning is TO being relatively quiet as he was injured, so that really didn't affect the Eagles as they went without him on their way to a NFC championship. He had a great super bowl, but they lost, and proceeded to begin calling out the Eagles most respected leader. This year Philadelphia was a whopping 4-3 with TO, and 0-1 without him. It wasn't until this year TO started his tirade, and not coincidentally the Eagles are off to their worst start in 5 years. After his fiasco the Eagles claim irreconcilable differences, TO will be gone at the end of the year. The 49ers have the least talented team in the NFL the last two seasons. But again we have some striking similarities with Philadelphia. Happy TO and the 49ers go 22-10 between 2001-2002. But that was before TO became the TO of today, after he started the tirade the 49ers inexplicably dropped to 7-9. After a his fiasco the 49er claim irreconcilable differences, TO will be gone at the end of the year. You starting to see a trend?

The motivation it takes to play football, and to be a team, cannot be captured with dollar amounts. A big difference separates a player from trying hard, and trying his best, and when you have a player like TO around it effects the motivation of players and the cohesiveness of your team. Sure they get paid, but these concepts are emotional concepts, money doesn’t motivate it, or promote it. The disparity in teams in the NFL is razor thin to begin with, and when you have a team that has leaders, and believes in each other, and is motivated to play their best, those are the very teams that seem to excel in the FA area. What recent Super Bowl champion didn’t have a team identity? Or didn’t have intense motivation, and leadership? TO severs the ability for those things to exist, and his talent doesn't make up for it. San Francisco saw this, Philadelphia saw this, why can't you see this?

He's correct, and I'll explain why. When you look at this line at first glance it screams KC, even more KC has been a public favorite ever since that 13-3 year. One more obvious pattern of the betting public is not giving the home team a big enough advantage. This combination shows the odds makers think the "public" is vastly overrating KC, and is very likely to underestimate the home Bills. They take advantage of that by slanting the line even more in favor of Buffalo to make the line irresistible to KC backers. Now a frenzied public looks at this line and screams, "holy crap Buffalo -2.5 , KC is a lock. " It's a gamble by the bookies, but it usually works. In 95% of the other games they try and balance action, and the juice nearly always ensures profit. But in one or two games a week they will have a "trap game" listed. Remember, these lines first go threw a line making firm, and then are tested by a small sampling of the public, and the professional bettors. Vegas makes no mistakes, luck always plays a roll, but they clearly think Buffalo is underrated in this spot. A smart move would be to wait until this thing bottoms out, probably with the Chiefs as favorites, and bet the Bills.

Right now we’re playing at about 75%, with an additional 2% we will be at 77%. I don’t know about you but I'm happy about being just a mere 33% away from the coveted 110%

I'm am making a lot of assumptions, I agree with that, but that is all I really have to measure the progress of our rookies. Late picks are known to silently disappear from your roster, and usually if they pan out you at least hear about them making some noise. I haven't heard anything on Justin yet, but given your analysis, and him having to switch positions, it might take a little while for his talents to shine threw. I'm really hoping he pans out as he sounds like a great player, with a good head on his shoulders.

I think you took my post as an attack on your review of Justin, but that wasn't the intention. I really appreciate the scouting reports, and just wanted your opinion on MW's move, and how that affects Gesinger. If a guy is playing a position in a back up role, and the team decides to move over a Starter from a different spot, that tells me Geisinger isn't NFL ready yet. I'm not saying that he won't develop into the player you say he will, but given the limited time I can see these guys in action I try and rely more on our coaches analysis then my own or anybody else’s. Just wanted to edit this to add a question for you, given that Justin needs to switch from T to G at what point do you think his talent will earn him a role in the starting lineup? Obviously this will be influenced by who we have at those positions, but G seems like a position he could break threw at with CV get older and less durable, BA sucking, and MW probably needing awhile to be effective in any position changes?

I think you took my post as an attack on your review of Justin, but that wasn't the intention. I really appreciate the scouting reports, and just wanted your opinion on MW's move, and how that affects Gesinger. If a guy is playing a position in a back up role, and the team decides to move over a Starter from a different spot, that tells me Geisinger isn't NFL ready yet. I'm not saying that he won't develop into the player you say he will, but given the limited time I can see these guys in action I try and rely more on our coaches analysis then my own or anybody elses.

Your taking one out of 9 potential picks, and saying the pick for Willis (Arguably TD’s best selection ever) is the one in which we must have used to find our LG. I'm saying any of the first day picks from 03-05 could have been used, not just the pick we took Willis at. I don't see Smith, Tucker, or Andersons as legitimate solutions at LG, and hoping one would work out is not just a failed solution, but not a solution at all. I'm talking about a legitimate replacement, meaning either an average to top tier FA, or a pick in the first 3 rounds of the draft. After that you need to get lucky in order to make it work, and as you have pointed out we have tried to get lucky several times and failed. A guy drafted in the first 3 round may not work out either, but at the very least I could argue that TD has made a serious attempt to upgrade that position, as it stands I can't make that argument.

Glad I saw you post again, I had a question about a post you did on Geisinger. You seem to know a lot about him and like him at G, how do you know so much about him in such limited time? Do you just watch a lot of SEC ball or do you have ties to Vanderbilt? I'm just trying to get an accurate read on his potential and you gave him a ringing endorsement. I'm not questioning your analysis, but the Bills are now trying out MW at LG, and you would think if Gesinger is as good as your post implied the Bills wouldn't be interested in moving Mike over. Perhaps he is shaping up to be CV's eventual replacement? Any thoughts on MW's potential move and how this affects your analysis on Gesinger?

I'm not saying this in a trade this player for that player type way, I'm saying TD has never addressed LG since Brown left with any quality pick from 03-05. We wanted a QB so we traded back in the first round for JP, we needed a guard to replace Rueben but we sit on our hands and hope journeymen can fill the void. Steinback lasted until the first pick of the second round that year, and If we wanted him that bad we could have traded up for him, or taken a G in the 2nd or 3rd round, or drafted one in 04 or 05 in any of the day one picks. He’s had 3 years to find a replacement for Brown and never did, and subsequently was left to sign a G from a horrible class of FA in 05.

It's not like Rueben Brown was released yesterday, or it was unforeseeable event. His play was on the decline and his price was not, even most Bills fans speculated in 2002 that Brown would be gone soon. It's not TD's fault that Demulling, Anderson, and Vincent suck, but it is his fault that he never addressed Rubens departure in the first place. Had TD done his job correctly and recognized what most of us "arm chairs" did about Rueben he could have selected a quality LG in the 2003 draft. But apparently spending a first day pick on a G, with the ability to groom him for a year was not worth it. Even lacking any foresight with Ruben TD still had the opportunity to correct his mistake by drafting a LG in either 2004, or 2005. Threw the draft he addressed the LG spot with 5th rounder Ben Sobieski in 2003, and 6th rounder Justin Geisinger in 2005. Sobieski is a bust, and Geisinger is not NFL ready, and we don't know if he ever will be. TD has had ample time to address Rueben’s departure but never has, and it's his own fault he was left to choose among these three scabs.

This is great news!! We need to get our best 5 on the field, especially if it involves moving in a cost effective player like Jason Peters. Gandy hasn't killed us this year, and for the $ is a solid LT. Paired with Mike next to him instead of turn style Bennie should also help him out. With Preston moving into Teague’s spot next season we may just have a capable line signed under contract for more then a few years. I would still like to get a LT in round 2 for the future, and focus on DT in round 1. I mentioned Lecharles Bentley before as a possible C next year and still really like that move, but that of course depends on how the Bills feel about CV's durability problems. I like CV when healthy, but if the Bills feel he won't be able to stay on the field they could add Bentley and move Preston to a RG (He's played that spot plenty of times this year). I like the prospects of Gandy-MW-Duke-CV-JP, but I like Gandy-MW-Bentley-Preston-Peters even more.

If they finish 12-0 of course they deserve a shot, but if other teams also go 12-0 style points usually win out and Alabama just doesn't have many this years. All this is of course considering they do win out, and I'll go on record right now that they won't do that. The meat of the schedule is ahead for them, and their biggest win was against a vulnerable Florida team. Other then that they beat up on a couple pansies, and played in tight games with some of the worst teams in the SEC.

Boomshockalacka

Like a slippery fish, off the hook

Willis is a very good back, but until he regains his speed and explosiveness he will never be an elite back. Many RB's that have torn up the knee have said it takes 2 full years of playing to recover. Willis tore 3 ligaments, and after 1 1/2 seasons of playing he's slowly getting back that speed and explosiveness he showed at Miami. We have no reason to think we've seen his best, as a knee injury that severe might take 2-3 years of playing to fully recover.

A little bit of lamb and rice pilaf

His antics are so ridiculous that it's hard to imagine that he's not aware of how he appears to fans, and his team. Nobody questions his talent, but it's just not worth the price it comes with anymore, financially or for the sake of the team. TO believes he's bigger then the game, and that his talent supersedes the path of destruction the follows him everywhere, but IMO he has reached the cusp of what any NFL team is willing to put up with. His price tag is going to be big, and the history of attacking team leaders, and his teammates, is astounding. What’s it say when the Eagles are clawing for their playoff lives but are still willing to sit TO down now? I think it’s a clear statement by the Eagles that TO’s horrible attitude outweigh his on field talents. It will be intresting to see what team is dumb enough to sign him next year, probably Oakland.