Mikie2times

Free Bird By solo I mean any extended part in the song with no lyrics, with a focus on the lead.

Seriously No denying those two had some serious chemistry back in the day; it was a great pick up by Dallas.

I wouldn't exactly say the Pac-10 is a small conference compared to the Big Ten. If you look at rivals.com about the recruiting history the last three years of the Big Ten and Pac 10 the Pac-10 averages higher overall talent compared to the big 10, and the Pac 10 has produced the best team in college football since Miami in USC. I'm saying this about Watson having witnessed it living in Wolverine country my whole life, the guy takes plays off, and is a real underachiever. Just not the kind of player I want near the Bills. If Ngata is the same way then the same goes for him, I just haven't heard or seen anything to indicate that.

Watson is an overweight underachiever, as has been labled as lazy by most scouting services. Possibly Wright but I still like Ngatas future the best of the three.

I don't think we can count on Sam Adams another season. Two straight years we have evidence of him playing outside the system, and it's obvious that kills our defense. Even if we kept him who on that list is the type of OL eating DT we need to compliment Sam? I suggested Ngata and Grady Jackson as next year’s duo, but regardless this is still very early even for speculating. I imagine the direction we go with the first pick will certainly be influenced if we can get one more 1st for Nate.

It likely all those Tackles would be gone by the time I have us taking a Tackle (between 20-30 in trade for Nate). I just don't think we should wait for one second to get our DT, it's far too important to these teams immediate chances, and we don't have a lot of options in FA.

In the NFL teams this year average 4.69 kickoffs per game, and 4.76 punts. Combine that with penalties and NFL has plenty of areas for teams to gain that small advantage. I created a stat to account for the Grey Area yardage these areas represent. All I did was take the average kickoff and punts per game as shown above, and multiplied it by the yardage differential of each team stats and its opponents on ST. I then included average loss of yardage per game from penalties compared to the league average. Grey area yardage becomes even more important when you look at how yardage relates to points. In the NFL 15.9 yards gets you one point on average, of course red zone efficiency, turnover, etc play a roll but it's a fairly accurate formula to estimate a teams points scored. This is how teams faired, I translated the yardage into points as previously mentioned, I will also list the amount of grey yards it averages to per game. Sorry if the charts hard to read, I did my best. Team Grey Yards......... Grey Points Buffalo 46.79.................2.943 Dallas 42.58..................2.682 Washington 21.52..................1.354 Denver 17.89..................1.125 NY Giants 17.49..................1.100 Carolina 15.77...................0.992 Minnesota 14.27................... 0.898 Houston 13.36.....................0.840 San Diego 13.22.....................0.832 San Francisco 12.38................... 0.778 NY Jets 12.15......................0.764 Chicago 7.81......................0.491 Indianapolis 7.02.....................0.441 Cleveland 6.98......................0.439 Cincinnati 5.29......................0.333 Atlanta 2.24..................... 0.141 Tennessee 1.20................... .0.075 Pittsburgh -0.04....................-0.002 Jacksonville -7.97................... -0.501 Oakland -8.41....................-0.529 New England -8.54................... -0.537 Seattle -11.25.................. -0.707 Detroit -11.77................. ..-0.740 Philadelphia -12.5..................... -0.789 Green Bay -18.78................ -1.181 Tampa Bay -19.34................. -1.216 Baltimore -20.18.................. -1.269 Miami -21.16................... -1.331 New Orleans -33.95..................-2.135 Kansas City -37.42................. -2.354 St. Louis -38.62................. -2.429 Arizona - 38.90................. -2.447

Penn State, head to head gives it to them.

Well then you should have made the heading Texas/USC, home team is always listed on the right. Frankly it wouldn't suprise me to see the public overate Texas that much either, wait until the end of the year and this one probably is more like a pick em. When it gets to that point USC is a good play.

Texas -7? USC to the bank, the Big 12 sucks this year. (enter BlueFire in 3...2...1... )

If we make the passing game our priority on the road LT will have 200 yards against this defense. Winging the ball all over the field might get us more points, but I guarantee it will also result in the Chargers getting more points, and if this goes into a shoot out we have no prayer. I don't expect Willis to have big numbers but in order to have a chance in this one we need to control the clock. I agree that we need to take some shots down field but it's even more important that we keep the Chargers offense off the field as much as possible.

Gandy is serviceable, and I still have us going with a LT in a pick we will acquire from trading Nate Clements. When you look at what’s available in FA at LT, our best option right now is to get a LT in the draft (assuming DT is taken care of) and let him and Gandy fight it out next year. Gandy probably beats out a rookie as rookie LT's usually take at least a year to get used to the NFL but past that Gandy could shift into a T/G back up role and the drafted player could be our future book end.

It's difficult to project Wayne as a true #1 but having Lee will not allow teams to treat him as a true #1 so I it probably wouldn't become an issue. I have us cutting Moulds, but I probably should have thrown a big asterisk next to it saying that it's only because of his cap implifications. This offense would certainly miss Moulds, and if we let him go it would be a mistake to assume a journeymen type WR could fill the void. If Lee becomes the focus of coordinators he likely struggles out the gate for awhile and these slow starts have been killing us the last few years. The FA options include Givens, Wayne, Randell-El, and Joe Jurevicous, and out of that group Wayne brings the most explosiveness to the table. His contract figures to be large but we could try and structure it in a way that allows us to fit him in next year as his numbers wouldn't be a problem down the road as our dead cap hits fall off.

I agree that Baker might pan out, and in the original post I suggested we play him now to find out if he is the future. If that doesn't work out then the 2nd round is not to early to go FS as long as we address T and DT in the 1st. I have us trading Nate allowing us tp get that DT and LT in round 1, and if that doesn't happen then I agree we have more pressing needs then a FS in the 2nd.

D'Brickashaw Ferguson is the guy you’re thinking of, and it would be hard to see him fall past the top 3 picks. I expect the Bills to be anywhere from 8-16, and if we trade Nate it will probably net us a pick between 20-30. At 8-16 DT makes a lot of sense and Ngata should be available for us in that range. After that a deep LT class might allow us to pick up a future bookend if Nate gets us back in the first round. A few of the LT prospects may end up being RT’s at the next level, but a player like Marcus McNeill is not one of those guys. He’s one of the more polished LT’s in the draft, but a few other guys might have enough upside to let McNeil fall down to us.

What’s been a bigger problem for this team, the interior line or Aaron Schobel? The goal for next year should be to get younger at certain positions, purge any massive contracts, and upgrade the talent in the places we need it the most. If you don't want Schobel anymore then suggest a viable solution at DT, and DE, and don't just say FA's because the market is thin at both those positions. Also how do you figure we do anything with Schobel after TD just extended him last season?

I agree with how we should spend the Picks, and wanted to add a day 1 Mock to the orginal post anyway so hear it goes. Day 1 #1A- DT Haloti Ngata- Oregon #1B- LT Marcus McNeill- Auburn #2- FS Nate Sally- Ohio State #3A- G Mark Setterstrom- Minnesota #3B- OLB/SS- Terna Nande- Miami (Ohio)

I think he will be but I still don't see Posey going anywhere next season. To many question marks surround TKO's comeback, and Posey remains serviceable, and somebody we might need if TKO can't return to the player he was.

That was the point I was trying to convey in the original post. Of course I don't want to see Moulds leave, but his cap hit is unmanageable. JP looks like the future and thankfully for us JP's chemistry with Evans is outstanding. In many of the moves I projected the purpose was creating cap space for 2006 and 2007, and getting younger as a team.

Crowell was a beast today, and has really started to develop into a fine OLB. I decided to compare Angelo's stat line to that of TKO's 2004 pro bowl campaign; I think it will really surprise some to see the results. Projecting Crowell’s current stats over 16 games his line would look like this 112 Tackles 76 Solo 36 Assist 6 Sacks 2 Forced Fumbles 4 INT 6 Passes defended TKO's 2004 line 99 Tackles 64 Solo 35 Assist 3 Sacks 3 Forced Fumbles 5 INT 17 Passes defended 2 TD's The point of this is not to say Angelo is playing at TKO's level, because TKO is simply a game changing defender, and one of the best coverage LB's in the NFL. But this first year starter is surpassing TKO's outstanding 2004 season in many areas, and I think it's safe to say he will be a big part of our future. Also while people have many legitimate beefs with TD we should take a step back and look at the draft we had in 2003. Our first four picks that year included Willis, Kelsey, Crowell, and Magee. That's a pretty sick draft and certainly one of the best that year.

Counting on Mike Williams to convert to G and play well is asking a lot. The guy's center of gravity is too high to play G, and even if he did why would he so graciously renegotiate? Also if he's playing RG how are we addressing the weakest part of the line at LG? Why dump CV and create another position of need? As for Gandy, I said I can live with his play at LT next year. I have us going after a LT early in the draft but a rookie LT usually doesn't play well, and Gandy could probably beat him out for at least one more season. Again why create a need when so many exist in the first place? As for Adams what in the last two years leads you to believe he can be an OL eater at DT? The dude is a pure free lancer, and has gotten in the coaches dog house two straight seasons because he plays outside the system. Either get him a buddy at DT that can let him roam around, or cut him outright. I've always been a fan of Moulds but he's become 5 million a year possession receiver that we continuously have to renegotiate. Regardless of his cap hit we need to part ways sooner or later, and I just see that time coming sooner rather then later.

QB- Find out if JP is the guy for next year, if so he’s the starter, and have Kelly playing back up. We should also use a late round pick in the draft to replace the aging Matthews, and serve as a solid #2 option when Kelly leaves. RB- Draft a player that can play in a few games if Willis ever goes down. Shaud is a change up back, and decent receiver out of the backfield, but he just isn’t a player that can start for us and get 25 carries. I was hoping Gates could be that player, and he looked decent at times in the preseason but he has yet to record a carry this year. Other needs might force us to hold serve here. WR- Cut Eric Moulds, and try and land Reggie Wayne as a FA. Eric Moulds costs over 10 million on the 2006 cap, no way does he see that money, and IMO 2005 was the last time the Bills will try and restructure him. It would be risky to go into 2006 with Lee unproven as a #1, and Roscoe still unproven as a #3 let alone a #2. Moulds isn’t affordable, and Wayne won’t be cheap either, but the combination of Wayne, Evans, and Parrish would give us some serious young talent at WR. With other needs we can’t afford to draft another WR early, so it’s not difficult to picture TD going after the only potential #1 in FA this year. TE- Cambell is a solid blocking TE, and after drafting Everett last year we need to find out if he is going to give us that athletic TE before we pursue other options. T-Peters at RT, and Gandy at LT is a combination I can live with. Both are affordable, and both should improve as Peters has virtually no experience and Gandy split time at G while in Chicago. I would also decide to part ways with Mike Williams. Williams isn’t as bad as he’s made out to be, but the cap situation is forcing either a renegotiation or a cut. I have argued before for a renegotation, but now I just don’t see it being in our best interests. A successful switch to G for Mike seems very unlikely, and he can’t stay healthy. With Jason Peters making pennies, not getting injured, and possessing potential at RT why would we want to sign Mike back to a deal that he would have to accept (don’t expect him to willingly take a 6 million dollar pay cut, or Ralph to shell out a huge signing bonus given the circumstances). I would finally like to see us spend our 2nd round pick, or additional 1st if we get that for Nate on one of the drafts talented LT’s. G- CV is solid when healthy, and I don’t feel like it’s a pressing need to replace him. The same cant be said about LG, a position that really needs our attention. If TD wants to prove to everybody he is serious about upgrading this line we should make a run a Steve Hutchinson, one of the leagues best LG’s. C- Out with Trey Teague in with the Duke. It’s pretty obvious the Bills intended on Duke replacing Teague when he becomes a FA next year, and I see no reason to think anything has changed given their two performances this season. DE- Of course I would like to see an upgrade at DE like John Abraham but it won’t happen and probably shouldn’t given the rest of our priorities. Schobel signed an extension last season so you know he’s entrenched at RE. At LE Raheem Brock is available from the Colts, but his production would probably equal Kelsey’s anyway. Don’t expect the Bills to do any major upgrading at DE this off-season. DT- This is probably the most difficult task for the 2006 season. Sam Adams can still be a good DT with that big cog next to him, but it appears like he might have outlasted his welcome with the Bills defensive staff. Many think Grey will go but I don’t see that happening, if he stays we still need to get that massive DT to eat up blockers as its obviously critical to this defense. Sam is massive but he can’t fill that role, but a player that could is Grady Jackson from GB. He’ll be 33 next year but in terms of FA DT’s he is the only real OL eating DT available. GB is playing decent run defense this year so Jackson could be an affordable solution for a couple years. I then think we should draft DT with our first rounder, the guy I like is Ngata from Oregon. He’s supposed to be the best interior pass rusher in the draft, really looks like he has a great future. OLB- Crowell has to remain a starter next year, and if TKO returns that might mean Posey becomes a back up. It also probably wouldn’t hurt to look at an OLB in this years draft at some point. We just don’t know about Takeo’s health and with that factor involved it gives us little depth at OLB. MLB- I don’t see the need to mess with this spot as an improved interior line should be enough to take care of any problems London’s been having. CB- Franchise and trade Nate. He’s worth a ton to this team and I hate to see him go but we can’t shell out the money he will be getting. He will get us an additional #1, or at the very least a high #2, which I factored in earlier in getting a LT. To replace Nate we should probably look at FA as opposed to the draft. I like Jerry Azumah a starter from the Bears, or Will Allen of the Giants. King should then finish the unit off as our Nickel guy. I expect some drop off without Nate but I doubt a unit comprised of these players would be our downfall, and a more talented DL should make it much easier on our secondary. FS- Our safeties make to much money, and while Vincent has made some picks at FS he isn’t a very consistent player. I say we make the move to Baker right now and see if we can possibly count on him next season. If not keep Vincent around until we have a viable replacement, either way I would like to look at FS with one of the 3rd rounders. SS- Like FS I would like to get a little younger at SS, but with everything else we need to address Milloy isn’t a pressing issue. Perhaps we could match our 3rd round FS with a 3rd round SS, or later in the draft pick pick up a raw SS prospect. If we don’t address SS at all this year I fully expect the Bills to draft a SS in 2007. K- Rian Lindell has had a great year up until today, let’s wait and see how he closes out the year before we say anything about his future status. If we do wan’t to switch kickers 3 of the best are available in Neil Rackers, Vinateri, and Vanderjacht.

Football Outsiders is a site that tracks many unusual statistics for NFL teams. If you want to look at the information I used for this post check out the link, and click on Just the Stats link under the banner. Loads of great stuff that I’m sure many of you would enjoy. We all know the problems on the run defense but I think these stats further illustrate what we already know, the interior is horrible. Here is the lowdown statistically on how bad the interior has become. Power = Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. For defense the same format is used but it gets ranked in reverse order. So this stat shows the % of times we stuffed the offense last year in this situation. 2004- Offenses have a 42% success rate against our defense in POWER situations, 1st in the league 2005- Offenses have an 80% success rate against our defense in POWER situations, 30th in the league It also shows the average gain offenses have running to each position of the defense, and ranks them across the league. The run areas are off Left End, Left Tackle, MID/Guard, Right Tackle, Right End. In 2004 our middle guard defense was 3rd in the league allowing 3.53 yards per carry. In 2005 our middle guard defense is ranked 27th allowing 4.53 yards per carry. Let me also add that it shows Buffalo’s opponents running at the Middle/Guard spot 68% of the time. The NFL average is 52%, and only the Colts at 70% get more action in the interior then Buffalo. What we’ve been watching on the field is an obvious weakness we will be exploited at the rest of the season. How can you be a ball control team when your defense begs teams to beat you with a ball control style? Our interior has become swish cheese lately, and IMO is the number 1 priority this off-season. Football Outsiders

I wouldn't touch it either way. I like intangible type plays when the line dictates it, IE overvaluing one team while the other has motivation, emotion, or other circumstances in its favor. The Eagles have many of those circumstances going with theme Monday night, but since they developed the reputation of a winner the last few years they still come with a more expensive price then other teams who have performed better this season.

Not betting on division rivalries is a silly rule, especially considering that so many opportunities exist each year. IMO the familiarity of two teams can often be used to the bettor’s advantage in certain division match ups. In this particular game a couple factors are playing a role that could signal a performance outside the norms of what each team has done. For starters any Monday night home game generally means a stronger advantage. Second is the importance of this game to Philadelphia, and revenge for the earlier thrashing at the hands of the Cowboys. If Philadelphia was ever to respond this year this is the game they must do it. I'm not betting this game simply because without TO we really don't know how good this Eagles team is. McNabb hasn't been right since the hit he took in Atlanta, and frankly nothing the Eagles have done this year even resembles the team that went to all those NFC championships. That said if you’re someone who likes to favor intangibles then the Eagles seem like a strong play.