Mikie2times

We all know how it played out, Pittsburgh selected Roethlisberger two spots before Buffalo and we still found a pretty good player in Lee Evans. We then traded back into the first to get JP. The question I'm posing is do you think JP was always the guy they targeted, or would TD draft Big Ben if he’s around at #13? Also knowing what we know at this point, would you rather have Lee Evans, and JP Losman, or Rothlisberger?

He does the "The hey song" very famous for sporting events. Yes I think they should stop playing it, now that I know this I'm sure as hell not going to listen to it again.

Yep, that was the game. My first thought was oh the Lions got the throwbacks on, then oh sheet Flea Flicker. It was funny because I was only 12, yet the surrounding Lions fans talked crap like I was a 25 year old drinking bourbon. Must have been the incredibly pimp Bills starter jacket I owned at the time. Despite the loss Jimbo had a rare 10+ yard TD scramble, and Pete Metzalars hauled in a long TD pass. I would love to do it next year.

It would be sweet if we play our game against the Lions next year on Thanksgiving. I'm going to the game regardless, but I got a chance to go to the Thanksgiving game during the Kelly era, and while we lost it still was a great experience. Plus for once we might actually have a chance at winning a nationally televised game. With our luck they probably give it to Miami.

10 years? You can't be serious; teams can turnover an entire roster, staff, and GM in 4 or 5. We have no idea what will happen with our young offensive players, or future draft picks. If you hate Mularkey, give him one more bad year and he's out for sure, same probably goes for TD. We just got crushed on the road by a much better team, but this is still the NFL, and we have no way of knowing who will turn it around next year, let alone 5 or 10 years from now.

I pretty much agree with everything said, and while I'm in favor of a possible GM switch if TD addresses the lines like he has at other positions then I don't care if he sticks around. Also contributing to our future prospects is JP, he has the skill to be an elite player, but does he ever evolve into that? Even if he becomes slightly above average next year that could bring a completely new dimension to Buffalos offense. The Bills passing game has been awful this season, and it hurts our ground game because teams can just stack the box. Things don't look so bright now but the Bills might be in pretty good shape for next year if JP comes around, and we upgrade the lines.

Thats my list but I also throw Adams in

I'm trying to extract numbers from each line of text in the NFL play by play logs. To give you an example of what I'm trying to do here is a line from one of the logs. 1-10-SD25 (14:56) L.Tomlinson up the middle to SD 37 for 12 yards (L.Milloy, N.Clements) When you copy the play logs to excel each play takes up one line, and it keeps going until the game is complete. What I'm trying to do is isolate the down, in this case 1, and the yardage result, in this case 12, into an excel cell so I can measure team success in certain situations. I can get the down isolated by using the text to columns function, but I can't find a way to get the yardage isolated. The goal would look like this Cell--------------------------------Cell--------------------------------------------Cell Play Log from NFL.COM---------DOWN----------------------------------------Yardage If I could get it in this format it would make extracting the data a million times easier. Thanks in advance if anybody can help.

I just used a similar stat to look at the SD game. All it does is break down the amount of plays each offense faced at 3rd and 6 or longer, and how often that team converted. BUF Ran- 49 Rushing and Passing plays SD Ran- 67 Rushing and Passing plays Of the Chargers 67 plays 2 plays came in a situation of 3rd and 6 or longer, they converted both. Of Buffalos 49 plays 7 plays came in a situation of 3rd and 6 or longer, and they converted once. One more stat I looked at combined performance on second and first down, and it looks on par with what you would expect with the 3rd and 6 numbers. The stat credits a team 1 point for converting a first down on the first two downs, or one point for putting your offense in 3rd and 3 or less. If the team fails to achieve either one of these objectives they lose 1 point. The points are then all totaled up and you can find each team’s success rate in these situations. For a little more detail pretend you have a team that received 10 Positive points, and 5 Negative Points. That means we have a total of 15 occurrences that this situation happened in. Just divide 10/15 and that’s how I came up with the success rate for these situations. SD- Had an 89.3% success rate in this category Buff- Had a 50% success rate in this category.

Again great idea to convert it to a per play ratio, that really shows the impact how often Buffalo is getting in these situations. You can also convert the percentages on 3rd and 7 and longer into the per play format. Those would look like this for the Colts and Bills on 3rd and 7 or longer. 1 out of every 5.9 plays the Bills will convert a third and 7 or more 1 out of every 2.8 plays the Colts will convert of third and 7 or more

I agree that many of the good offenses won't even see a third down to begin with. So to take into account a good offenses ability to avoid third down all together we could compare the amount of 3rd downs an offense has to the overall plays it runs. Buffalo has 563 passing and Running Plays Indianapolis has 636 Passing and Running plays Knowing already how many third downs each team has attempted, and how many of those 3rd downs are 7 yards or longer we can get a much better overall picture of the offense. 22% Of Buffalos plays have come on third down, and of those 3rd downs 59 or 46% have involved a third and 7 or longer situation. 18% Of the Colts plays have come on third down, and of those 3rd downs 43, or 36% have involved a situation of third a 7 or longer. While 4% doesn't seem like the world, a number like that probably has a big overall effect on a team’s offense in the scheme of things. Then when you factor in the other numbers I had in previous posts you can really see how much more efficiently a good offense operates compared to Buffalo's. I appreciate the comments and tips.

I spend a lot of time analyzing statistics for handicapping. At the end of the year I'm going to do this statistic and several others for all the teams by going over the play by play logs. Just so we have some point of reference on how a good team does in these circumstances I also did the Colts. They have a stat line that looks like this. GOOD= A conversion of 3rd and 7 or longer BAD= Not converting 3rd and 7 or longer, excluding penalties, turnovers, and sacks. NEG= A 3rd and 7 or longer that involved an offensive penalty, sack, or turnover Total 3rd Downs: 118 Total 3rd Downs 3rd and 7 or longer: 43 (36%) GOOD: 15 (34.9%) BAD: 22 (51.2%) NEG: 6 (14%) So what is probably the leagues best offense gets in these situations about 10% less often then Buffalo, and is 18% more likely to convert then the Bills. The other one I was interested in doing is something I'm going to call First Down success rate. This will measure the frequency in which a team picks up at least 4 yards on first down. Maybe I'll throw that one into this thread later tonight.

A successful offense is required to score points, and gain yards, but in order to accomplish those things a team must put themselves in make able third downs. For a team with a weak line it is even more important because a 3rd and long puts you in predictable pass situations. Predictable pass situations will get you blitzed, and a below average line will look even worse. If you can’t convert on third the trickle down effect will even extend to your defense. You will likely lose the time of possession battle, and see much more of the opposing team’s offense, and with a bad defense to begin with you could get yourself in trouble fast. What Buffalo doesn’t do well is get themselves in make able third downs, and when this happens our defense either must force turnovers, or pray, because we aren’t good enough to stop teams consistently. I broke down plays Buffalo has had on 3rd and 7 or more, and the frequency in which a third down was 3rd and 7 or more. The results will probably not surprise anybody. The following is how I did it GOOD= A conversion of 3rd and 7 or longer BAD= Not converting 3rd and 7 or longer, excluding penalties, turnovers, and sacks. NEG= A 3rd and 7 or longer that involved an offensive penalty, sack, or turnover Total 3rd Downs: 127 Total 3rd Downs 3rd and 7 or longer: 59 (46%) GOOD: 10 (16.9%) BAD: 37 (62.7%) NEG: 12 (20.3%) EDIT: I made a mistake on the amount of 3rd down attempts for the Bills. It's actually 127, not 118.

Agreed, Carr is a worthless POS.

Based on the performance against us Brees- Lit us up as SD stopped our blitz, and we played to stop LT Vick- Killed us with his scrambling Collins- Benefited greatly from Jordan’s big day Brady- Did enough to win, sound familiar? Brooks- Beat us with his legs and arm on 3rd down Greise- Was accurate enough to keep the chains moving and get Caddy involved Based on how I rate them overall Brady- Clutch Vick- Bad passer, but still a nightmare for coordinators Brees- Good QB, don’t think that LT doesn’t play a role in that Collins- Little Bledsoe, but has protected the ball this year Griese- Accurate west coast type passer, good QB for a running team Brooks- All the talent in the world, but horribly inconsistent.

Food issues are one thing, and anybody over 325 most likely has that problem, but motivation is a different story. I wouldn't be so quick to assume every large DT has a problem with motivation, just look at the difference in Adams play when he's motivated and when he's not. The NFL is filled with physically gifted players, but the best are usually the gifted guys that train hard, practice hard, and play hard.

Good post AKC I noticed some DT draft talk so I thought I chime in. When Ngata goes is really up in the air right now, and while he's my first choice as of now, I will admit to only watching him in a couple games over his college career. The reason I make him my top choice is more a process of elimination. I've watched every game Watson has played since he came to Michigan, and a good 90% of my friends are Michigan die hards. Scouting report or not Watson has played like an underachiever since he came to Michigan. He's very Sam Adams like in his motivation, and has always had weight problems. Then to top it off in an interview he gave during the Ohio State game he said the thing he loves most is food, and the thing he will miss the least when he leaves Michigan is practice. I found it funny that he publicly stated his two most obvious downfalls, food and laziness. Some reports say Ngata has the same weight issues as Watson and at 350+ I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s true. It’s said that Ngata is a very hard worker, but that he is so talented (Oregon says the top Duck recruit ever) he often tries to rely only on his talent to beat players in college. If we pick him up the big question will be whether or not he understands that nobody is talented enough in the NFL to get by without good technique. Like I said I know Watson is like this and if Ngata also is you can cross him off my list. I just haven't seen enough of him to know for sure so that’s why I rate him ahead of Watson. One more guy that could figure into the mix is DT Rodrique Wright from Texas, he seems to be climbing up peoples boards.

I think a little of this is just frustration from the loss, because if your being realistic that won't happen. This is how these players probably pan out in 2006, this isn't what I necessarily want to happen, but it's what I think will happen. Staying Spikes, Fletcher, Schobel, Milloy Regardless of how you feel about these guys all four will probably be back next year. TD is not that drastic of a GM, and these players are in workable contract years. Spikes will be given a chance to return from injury, and Schobel will still finish top 10 in Sacks. While London’s very Zach Thomas like this year, he just needs some DT's keeping blockers off him. Milloy isn't great in coverage, but given how we played without him in 2004 I'm just not sure he gets let go. All these guys are high profile guys, with cap hits we expected to have for next year. Going Nate and Adams Nate figures to be gone, and probably Adams, one for cap reasons and FA and the other for irreconcilable differences. We have a ton of needs, and options exist via the draft and FA to replace these players. Despite today Nate is still a great corner, and will be missed, but other areas are much more desperate for that cap space. Adams just plays to inconsistently, focus in on him and it’s obvious. He takes 80% of the plays off, then on the other 20% shows you why it's impossible to block him, but that’s only when he is motivated. Right now he simply doesn't show the interest, and as his playing time dwindles so will his career with Buffalo. Who Knows Vincent Vincent could be gone if TD feels like he can get more athletic and natural at the position. What Vincent does have going for him with Teflon is he was a recent signing, and fairly high profile. In addition he did just make a position change not to long ago, and many other CB's made the effective switch to FS at even older ages. For those reason I would be surprised but not shocked if Vincent departed next season. By the way Jarthur I was going to make a post on the status of some of these guys for next year but you beat me to it. I hope that explains the FFS like length.

Glad somebody picked up on it

Nobody said he wasn't trying his best, or isn't just as pissed as us right now, but his solutions have been ineffective, and the progress is non existent. This team is running in mud, and in some cases is going backwards. I can't speak for what TD and this team will do in the coming years, but by evaluating what’s already happened how can we be optimistic that things will get turned around?

I'm an advocate of cohesiveness to your team, and I certainly think a long tenured GM fits into that picture, but when is a spade a spade? We keep losing, we keep showing no progress, and against good teams we have been coming up short since TD came here. Everybody tries to find a reason for it, maybe, just maybe, we don't have the right talent at the right positions. Against teams with a .500 or better record including TD's first year H- 6-15 A- 4-18 Against teams with a .500 or better record not including TD's first year H- 6-10 A- 3-15 Coaching plays a role in this of course, but then again TD is responsible for bringing in the coach also. We just didn't have a fighting chance today, and as this clearly indicates against good teams we rarely do. As a fan I'm not bitching because we can't make the big one, I just want progress, and hope, and the feeling that every Sunday we at least have a chance. It just hasn't been like that for awhile, and I certainly don't blame anybody for turning to the man in charge of assembling this team when trying to find the reason for all of it.

I feel the exact same way, and unfortunately I also agree that the Bills have become the Lions of the AFC. My whole life I've been getting crap for being a Bills fan, but it's easy to dish it back out because the Bills, at least in my lifetime, have been more successful then Detroit. Even as recently as the last few years I think a lot of Bills fans, including myself, liked to rate us above the cellar dwellers, and average teams. The early 90's run sort of burnt an image of what kind of team Buffalo is for a lot of us (especially the younger guys), and to a certain degree that image still exists. Unfortunately reality says that since TD has come on not only are we below average but we fit in with the Lions of the NFL. Only us Bills fans are in denial about wear we stand, but most other fans are seeing the Bills on the schedule and thinking it's an easy W. That is what the Bills have become since TD has come on board, and it's nearly impossible for me to continoue supporting a GM that has allowed us to turn into that.

Most my STD's are dormant.... Up nevermind

11-26 On the Road 67-109 The combined record of the opponents we won those 11 against Like TD says, we just lack consistency, what I'm trying to figure out is at what point is a GM responsible for bringing in more consistent players? Oh well, as long as we get us a Willis type steal every four years TD should keep most of his fan club happy.

Lately he answers one pissed of fan, I usually get a chuckle when I read that questions. It will probably go something like this. Really sorry about the Loss Sunday Mr. Donahue, do you expect the team to rebound next week? How do the Bills as an organization grade incoming draftees? What qualifications should one have in order to become a NFL GM? Ever since you became GM the Bills have been among the worst in the league. At what point will you recognize your immense failure as GM, and do Buffalo a favor by stepping down?