Mikie2times

I wouldn't mind giving Arkansas WR Marcus Monk a look.

I believe they call them periods in hockey.

Yes, he plays for the Vikings now.

I'll tell you everything you want to know, but I'm telling you it's not worth it. I did it for 2 years, from 2002 to the end of 2003. I researched statistics for countless hours everyday. I'm talking 40+ hours a week on excel, that’s all I did. The most you should ever count on from betting on sports is supplemental income. If you wish to keep reading I'll give you an idea of what you’re getting into, but like I said I strongly advise against it. My bankroll was around $20,000, which is NOTHING if you’re trying to do this full time. If I were ever to get into this again I would start with nothing less then $50,000-$75,000. If you’re in the top 2-3% of all sports handicappers in this country you have a chance to make a 100% ROI over the course of the year without an obscene amount of risk. But even if you can accomplish this, which 97% of people can't, you'll need to be practicing perfect money management or you'll bust. By perfect money management I mean each bet should be no more then 1% of your total bank roll. So if you have $10,000 you shouldn't be betting more then $100 a game, otherwise the swings will kill you. You should be able to see the potential for income problems with what I said. That’s why you need a lot of money, because you need to be safe (because it's your job), yet still make enough. If you ever have to draw on your winnings during the year forget about it. Those winnings are what will protect you against the inevitable downward swings. Now to the swings, which is the most important part. You need to look at each bet as having a probability. It's no different then flipping a coin. When you flip a coin you have it has a fifty/fifty chance of it being head or tails. Same goes for betting on a game. Obviously it's your goal to find lines that have more then a 55% probability of happening. Over the course of betting 100's of games, or flipping a hundred coins, one event will/can happen in streaks much more frequently. You might flip tails 65 times out of 100, then the next 100 you might flip head 60 times etc. If your money management falters at any point during these streaks you will lose everything. Really consider how difficult that can be. Say you’re up 800$ on the week, feeling great, then you lose 3 or 4 in a row. Most people will then want to get that money back so badly they risk more. Remember the bookie never runs out of money, you will. You need to become indifferent to winning and losing. Those streaks will always happen, it's the long term that makes a difference. That's pretty much what's involved. Is it possible? Yes. But very few can actually do it. What makes matters worse is the ones that try usually get burned BAD. I've made money the last 5 years, but the research time and stress has taken away a lot from my life. I like things a lot more with a normal 9-5 taking care of things, and capping as the gravy.

The Dolphins won despite every effort by Harrington to lose the game. It was the same way in the Bears route of Detroit last year in Chicago. JP Losman looked like Kenny Stabler against the Bears compared to Harrington.

He's making the biggest jump a football player can make in his lifetime. It's basically the equivalent of a High School player on JV going to DI College. Even by getting caught up he's still light years behind the rookies who went threw everything. Hopefully he can get some reps toward the end, but I wouldn’t take his lack of presence now as any indication of his future.

Leftwhich has one of, if not the tallest sets of WR's in football. A lot of his success has come with ball placement to taller receivers on fades, and floaters. The Jags run the jump ball fade more then any other team in football. In normal passing plays Leftwhich has often struggled. I don't know how much of that is on Leftwhich and his slow progressions/long delivery, or the JVILLE WR's and inability to separate. Regardless he would be going threw a major system shock if he came here. He's also been getting banged up since his days at Marshall. He has no mobility, so he takes a lot of punishment. Even if he is better then JP he's far from an ideal fit with the Bills.

No FA or early draft pick was athletic enough as a SS so we had to draft Whitner. No DT was available past McCargo that fit the "system" so we had to draft McCargo. Doesn't matter if they work out or not, you can't find value when you have to draft a specific player. Also who said we were any good the last few years on D? We could at least stop the run up until last year, but we weren't very good. The point is had we gone to a 4-3 this year maybe a wider group of FA's and draft choices that fit would have been possible. I just can't visualize a scenario that has the Cover 2 accelerating our defensive overhaul with who we have, and the type of players we've been able to get the last decade.

Let’s look at the example you gave. Chicago drafts Tommie Harris, then trades for Ogunleye. Two instant impact players on the DL. Then Lance Briggs comes out of nowhere to go along with the best MLB in football, and a playmaking secondary. This year they draft another DE that's among the NFC leaders in sacks. All these outstanding playmakers and yet Chicago still sometimes struggles against the run. The same thing happened intermittently when Tampa had things in full swing. Those teams showed they could mold dominating defenses, but even then how can we compare them to our current team and the likelihood they will find similar talent? Over the last decade we haven't been able to find good players at positions TB and CHI showed you need. We compare more to a defense like Indianapolis right now and in the future. Right now we play the run a little better then them, but we still have oversized, and less then ideal LB's for the system. We will get smaller and faster. Notice how quick Indianapolis is this week. They just don't have the freak size/speed athletes Chicago has, and TB used to have. The bottom line is why this defense? Why couldn't we just play a standard 4-3 that doesn't require such individualized skills sets. Look how it forced us to draft safety with our first pick. Even if it pans out, what will we need to draft next year, and the next year. The offense is flat out dismal, and looks like we could be forced to draft defense for awhile. I know, I'll give it time. I'll relax if they show some aggressiveness this off-season.

The red end zone was a tradition that was ended by a man no longer with this organization. The same goes for our uniforms. Why does it have to be this hard? Most of us clearly want the red end zone back, and a return to a former uniform style. When I see these uniforms and that end zone, I think of Drew Bledsoe. When I see the red end zone I think of the comeback. Give us back our traditions!

It's starting to be a trend. Remember the last thread I started about him? I'm saying it because it's clear you like to argue, but you've taken the position of he's small so he won't be good. Clearly he's small, so how can anybody dispute that? Your opinion would have more credibility if you tried just sticking with facts about his performance. For example his decline in 100 yard games. It's a legitimate concern. I'm thinking after so much success teams are going to extreme lengths to take him away. I would still like to see him overcome that now, but he has before and against big schools in the past. Statistically he's topping what Michael Turner accomplished at N. Illinois, who's performing well with the Chargers. If you didn't look at his size, and just his accomplishments he would be an easy 1st round pick. The intangibles matter, but I still feel he can hold up and succeed as a 3rd down back.

No way we should throw on this team. The Colts are built for pass defense, and INT's. They also have an offense built for big plays, and capitalizing on turnovers. It's a nasty formula. They get out to a quick lead forcing you to pass, a few minutes later 14-0 becomes 28-0. Everybody who's played the Colts has had success running directly at them. NE could have run all day and prevented Brady's INT's, instead the genius played right into Dungy's hands. We pound ATRAIN all day at the teeth of their defense, shortening the game, and improving our odds. It's our only chance.

I like Jauron, but to me a big part of reviewing his performance should be the way we transition to the Cover 2. It's only his first year but I'm already left questioning the decision, direction, and implenation of this defense. If you’re going to sign on with a club and sell your style in the way Jauron did you better be aware of who you have, and what you will need. What favors has this style done for us in the secondary or on the DL? This style forced us to seek safety help with our draft picks, and is exposing our CB's who are being asked to stay in coverage much longer then the hybrid days. To top it off we've picked a style that exaggerates one of our weakest defensive areas, stopping the run. We would be lacking in talent right now in any system, but I just don't think Marv was acclimated with our roster enough to know if the Cover 2 would be a good fit or not. With the fragile state of this team, if it even costs Jauron a year of total rebuilding it could ruin his chance for success.

I imagine the little tid bit about him not rushing for 100 yards was an ESPN gem probably related to the recent Toledo at NU game? Hardly enough to qualify you as an expert, but apparently not when armed with the evidence that he's small. So instead of posting a thread about Garret Wolfe you should start a thread titled Garrett Wolfe is small. That way whenever somebody points out what Wolfe’s done over his career you can stay on topic by letting us know he's small.

Good maybe his stock is also falling. I still like him as a change of pace back, the later the better. UDFA would be excellent.

It's all mocking anyway. I'm just shocked by the amount of negativity around here, especially after a W.

Many of the fumbles happened downfield by WR's and RB's. That's not something you can expect to keep happening. Denver started off completing a deep ball, scored, then forced a fumble on the kickoff and scored again. It was 14 nothing in no time, and Pittsburgh just started throwing. Just like in Oakland they drove all over the field, but untimely turnovers, and missed FG's killed them. If you look at what happened in the Denver game, and Oakland games, it's clear the Steelers could be dominating people without the mistakes. It's more a matter will they keep playing or not. If they keep playing things will eventually turn around.

This is the hatred scale; please refer to the hatred scale when grading how much you hate a player. The higher the score the more you hate that player. To find out your total amount of hate, add up your score, and divide it by the number of players you graded, then simply refer to the hate scale. 100- If Drew Bledsoe’s Mom had a child with Rob Johnson’s dad and he became the QB of the Bills in 2020 90- Bledsoe/RJ/TD's last year/ Gregg Williams 80- Travis Henry's last Year 70- JP Losman at the Start of this season 60- JP Losman at the Start of last season 50- Jim Kelly Front Office/Coach Hate: 67 GM Levy: 55 HC Jauron: 72 OC Fairchild: 63 DC Ferwell: 78 Offensive Hate: 71 QB Losman: 75 RB MaGahee: 70 FB: Shelton: 78 WR: Evans: 60 WR: Price: 80 WR: Parrish: 65 TE: Royal: 70 T: Peters: 60 G: Gandy: 75 C: Flower: 73 G: Villirial: 73 T: Pennington: 70 Defensive Hate: 66 DE: Schobel: 65 DT: Tripplett: 75 DT: Williams: 58 DT: Anderson 80 DE: Denelsey: 80 OLB: Spikes: 60 MLB: Fletcher: 59 OLB: Crowell: 65 CB: McGee: 65 CB: Clements: 70 SS: Whitner: 55 FS: Simpson: 60 Special Teams Hate: 53 K: Lindel: 55 P: Mooreman: 50 TOTAL HATE SCORE: 67 (Good to see I’m still a Bills fan.)

That's my point. You will never have safety in numbers in betting the NFL. Everybody bets the same way. They see a good team against a bad team, and hammer the good team despite the points. In this match up action is slanted over 75% toward the Colts. You need to look at every game from the view point of the bookie, and the motivation of the teams at hand. Look at most online books. They provide you with heavy statistical analysis free of charge. You think it' to help you win? It took me years to break the psychology of betting against the better teams. It's ingrained in us all, and that’s what the bookie takes advantage of. I've researched these topics for hundreds of hours. Trust me I'm trying to help you on this. You may or may not win your bet this weekend, but I promise this strategy won't win you anything in the long run.

I see the Steelers covering, especially if it drops below 3. The fumbles and Int's have killed this team, otherwise they've been moving the ball like one of the best offenses in football the last few weeks. They also still have a decent defense, and believe it or not pride. They came to play against Denver and would have won had it not been for turnovers. BR has been so banged up, and is starting to get healthy now. The Steelers are calling themselves out in the Press. Last time that happened they throttled KC at home. I expect primo effort up until they lose the 8th game, possibly 7th game.

That's my point. I'll take it a step further past the Buffalo game. NO WAY IN HELL DO THE COLTS WIN THE AFC CHAMPIONSHIP. I don't care how hyped they're or how close they get to 16-0. Being almost dead last in yards allowed and per carry? They can mask that all year against teams they can outscore 21-0 in the 1st. At some point in the playoffs a good team will exploit it, just as some bad teams have in the regular season.

I'm not trying to be a hater, but I saw your picks from last week and now you’re on the Colts? Books heavily adjust the spreads in games with a large public support. You will hit and cover a few, but over the course of the season you'll fry. Think about it. Very few people make money handicapping, and you’re doing exactly what everybody else is doing. To have any chance you need to be doing the exact opposite of everybody else, and under isolated conditions.

How did the Titans match up a few weeks ago against Indianapolis, or Miami against Chicago. Look at the performance we put on late last year against a solid passing Bengals team. You have to understand when a team is given no chance in a game that's when they often play the hardest. Obviously everything points toward a Colts romp. I just think most would agree that back to back road wins against playoff teams is exhausting. That’s what the Colts did. Buffalo just came off the bye, and won. They should be more rested, and have some confidence. Most teams can run on Indianapolis but often get over aggressive when they start scoring. It play's exactly into what they want you to do. NE could have won by running; instead they tried out dueling the Colts, and lost to the turnovers they create in the passing game. We can run on the Colts, and I also believe we can stop their run. No matter who's throwing the football if you can do that you have a chance to win.

It all boils down to us staying close early, allowing us to establish the run. I don't think we will pull the upset, but I see Buffalo being more competitive then people think. The Colts can be run on, and A-Train is good straight ahead with some power. I see his style being effective against the Colts undersized and undermanned interior. When teams control the ball by running the Colts have been human. Look at the 14-13 comeback win at home they had over Tennessee. They can't score if they don't have the ball. More along these lines is the potential for a Colts letdown. After a huge win at Denver, and then a very physical win last night, I have a hard time believing they will be fully up for our lowly Bills. On the flip side Buffalo should have a little confidence boost from the win verse GB. Crazy?

Favorites Oklahoma -7.5 San Jose State +14 New York Giants -2.5 Arkansas -4 Navy -12 Second tier Florida State -6.5 Miami NCAA +125 Rutgers +209 Cincinnati +21 Most these games I bought a point or two. I might do a 5 teamer with my favorites, we shall see. Also while I'm on my craziest winning streak ever, I've capped enough to know I will cool off soon enough. So use these at your own risk.