Mikie2times

About 5 minutes left in the 2nd quarter I check the live odds on Matchbook.com. LSU was a -2.5 favorite getting +125 odds. I got to make up for the Detroit game, have to love live betting. I was very surprised to get that price; it looked obvious Arkansas didn't have the balance LSU did after the first. Average gain per play was in LSU's favor by over a yard and a half. Arkansas has an amazing running game but at some point you need to be able to throw, especially on 3rd down.

Looks like Rutgers coach is the lead guy. Hope you enjoyed chopping wood this season Ed.

I don't come to a final decision until Saturday night. This is what I'm looking at, and if the line shifts to the buy price then I'll bet it for sure. Atlanta -3 buy at -2.5 I really like the overall motivation for Atlanta in this match up. It's a must win game for them, + Mora senior called out Vick early in the week. The first game they played in New Orleans was one of the most difficult regular season environments I've ever witnessed. Atlanta won't be able to stop New Orleans passing game, but the Saints won't stop Atlanta's running game. It's safer to move the ball by land. New England -3 buy at -2.5 As Buff pointed out it sucks that New England’s favored. Anything less then three would be juicy. If the only reason I had for this was New England potentially losing three straight home games it would be enough. Past that I like BB's penchant for confusing QB's and Grossman’s penchant for getting confused. I also think NE can get the running game going. The only reservation I have in this is Brady's performance against the Colts cover 2 look. Oakland 13.5 buys at 14 When every sign points to one team winning go the other way. Oakland’s on an ATS roll getting DD points against teams that don't care. The Chargers are off two marathon wins, Oakland on the other hand is playing better and was flat out embarrassed by SD at Home on Monday Night football in week 1. You remember giving up 9 sacks, and being shut out. Merriman did most the damage and he won't be playing. Oakland plays good defense, and the offense will be improved with Brooks over Walter. Pittsburgh 3 buy at 3.5 The defending champs have one game left to get back in this season. They're 4 back of Baltimore with two games remaining against them. This is the definition of must win for them. They're getting healthier on defense, and like the way they move the ball so long as Ben R. doesn't turn it over. I expect Baltimore to crawl down the stretch just like they crawled into the bye. McNair just isn't built to go 16 anymore.

Like you said, variance. If you’re doing really well and expect that to become the norm you'll fry. Last month I wen't 65-20 which is the best month I've ever had. Knowing what I know, what you know, I would probably be a better bet to fade this month. Nobody is capable of achieveing those numbers with any regularity. I think way to many go wrong following such a hot streak. The inevitable losing streak will come, and if your not prepared for it mentally you might risk way more then you can afford to lose. As for your thoughts on home field advantage 3 would make up the average league wide home field advantage. Some teams like KC and Denver will consistently get 4 to 4.5. I'll vary the number depending on the variables of the game, and so will the books. HF is mostly a motivational thing, so you have to play it like in terms of the situation. If a team isn't motivated then the fans probably won't be either, and HF won't factor in heavily. You often see this with the Colts when they're a double digit favorite. You also have to look at team's coming off great ATS home records to get a .5 to 1 point increase the following year. Obviously the books don't like to get burned twice and the public is still willing to buy.

You know how it never looks like the Bills should win? You could say that for half the league. I'd rank them 1 threw 15 then have 16A, 16B, 16C etc.

I would need a book. Different rules apply to different sports. Different rules apply within those sports during different times of the year. If you have a specific question I will be happy to answer it the best I can. I don't know everything, and know certain areas more then others. I would also recommend BuffOrange thoughts on the NFL, he clearly knows what he's doing.

1. True (You can still win a fortune on bad football teams) 2. I thought the opposite, as in Detroit would know how to defend him. Good call on your part. I think I also underestimated the loss of Kevin Jones.

It's not that, I mean I take this stuff very seriously. It makes up the majority of my income so I have to. Most the people here don't know how to handicap games. I'm not trying to be an arrogant a-hole but if somebody tried to do what you do for a living you would be able to know pretty quick if they know what their doing or not. I do this 40+ hours a week, and after an insane last month I figured I'd throw some people a bone. The bottom-line is this is a very up and down business and even the best bets have more then a 40% chance of losing. If I'm going to get called out on every loss, what’s the point of even posting?

You registered to say that? Dusch bag.

What if not putting it on the roof or deck is included in your contract?

Do you win every bet? Maybe you missed the dozen other games I hit on.

Ya me to..

I'm in the same boat at my complex. I suppose some would say that's our fault for picking such a location. I needed my apartment because it had an easy exit point to let my dog out. Sad thing is TW is no more greedy then the rest of them. Cable Company’s can be some of the worst people to deal with across the board.

Oh I do to. They said you’re allowed to have it, and I had DTV out and they said it would work in one location only. I had to run the lines underneath a sidewalk and into this small courtyard. I call the complex management to confirm it's ok, which they said it was. I asked again because the location was unusual and I didn't want to put in all that work for nothing. When I finally had it in my apartment management called and told me it wasn't ok. I was flaming mad.

Tell me your not old enough to have watched Otto Graham and Marion Motley

I've had the ticket the last few years but I moved to a location that doesn't have a clear view of the southern sky. What's worse is being in Sylvania, OH. You get Cleveland which is traditionally a 1pm start, and the Lions which is also a 1pm start. So not only do I have zero chance of getting the Bills on TV, but I have zero chance of watching any good football teams.

True, the Lions are so bad they will probably be around .500 ATS.

I'm not a proponent of the BCS but I’ll play devils advocate. In what is supposed to be one of the most screwed up years in BCS history each team had complete control of its destiny. All these potential two's could have locked up a spot by taking care of things on the field. Isn't that what the BCS is ultimately trying to accomplish? Furthermore what makes people think it is the NCAA's wish to have such a clean playoff system? The controversy the BCS has caused has created some of the most intense debate college football has seen in years. That in turn increases college football's popularity. It's not as if people are saying I hate the BCS so much I'm just not going to watch anymore. They're saying I hate the BCS, and I'm going to follow each game obsessively to find out who Ohio State plays.

A good friend of mine is a State alum, I'll ask him for the heads up this weekend. For the time being some info popped up when I entered his name on Yahoo.

Inland North

It has nothing to do with the Lions getting hot. The Dolphins are about to get cold, or at the very least colder then the box scores have been the last few weeks. They've needed turnovers and defensive TD's to win the last few weeks. That's fine, teams find different ways to win. But even if they’re legitimate turnovers it's happening at a rate that no team can keep up with. They also have a QB who throws a lot of picks. Something will give eventually, and they have nobody to pick up the slack when it does.

Because being good at handicapping doesn't involve finding a team that has already been hot. It involves finding one that is about to cool off or get hot. If this game was played before Miami/Chicago in this environment it would be Lions -3. Look at the facts DCM. Miami has been helped a ton by turnovers, and played at home 2 of the last 3. They needed 14 direct points off turnovers to beat a mediocre Minnesota team at home. Harrington has several issues and it would be shocking if after 4+ years the Lions aren't aware how to exploit them. The majority of people think they way you think when it comes to betting, and the majority of people lose.

Buy the half point, it's worth it.

It's as solid a play as you will find all year. I'll be placing my large size bet on it. I never recommend betting the house on one game.

Look at how Miami is winning right now. Massive amounts of turnovers, including +4 at Chicago and two TD returns this week. Ronnie Brown is not healthy; Joey Harrington is not playing well. This 3 game winning streak is a fluke. Now Miami heads into Detroit as 3 point favorites? Even better on wagerline the public is pounding Miami at almost a 70% clip. The Lions are good at home, and usually even better on Thanksgiving. You also have to figure they will know how to defense Harrington. If you’re going to jump on I would buy now while it's still +3.