Mikie2times

That is very accurate, people often really analyze these public betting % numbers. I've worked with them a lot on excel and the only value they hold is on high profile events. Your not going to see many soft lines to the majority of the market in a high profile event. They would rather be soft to the sharper players then the whole market, IE Super Bowl. But ultimately if your trying to read into line movements and betting %'s your certainly reacting to the market vs beating it. Most books actually pre-release the card to several experienced players before they even get released to the general public so they can anticipate what direction syndicates and sharp players will go in. Then they can properly position themselves against the rest of the market, subtly picking sides on certain games. By picking sides we might be talking about high vig or 1/2 a point, but that really adds up over time.

I run a sports service, it's grown a bit the last year so I thought to chime in on the debate. Oddsmakers do take sides on games to maximize profit. Happens all the time. Sometimes a disproportionate amount of wagers to one side will result in no movement. Certainly that is not a 100% indicator that they decided to side with the team getting the least action, but it can be an indicator. Sometimes oddsmakers simply move a number .5 to 1 point with no action to justify the movement, they just want people to perceive that syndicates, big players, etc are moving the number. They know people over analyze these data trends, citing "sharp" money. Splitting action is how they survive, picking sides is how they thrive.

I used to create a lot of the playoff threads and scenarios years ago but it’s been awhile since we had the chance to bring it up. I will update this thread during the season with rankings and scenarios so you can keep track of us ending the playoff drought. One thing is for sure, this will not be an easy path, and if we make it we earned it. With New England and the Jets being AFC East front runners (rightfully so) we will only have 1 wild card spot left. Baltimore or Pittsburgh will be formidable contenders for us to overtake them and earn that spot. Certainly way more scenarios exist, but that is how I see it playing out as of now. Since we play neither our Conference record will be critical. It’s nice to start 2-0 in that regard. I feel 10-6 is what we need to hit, these are the games left and how I see it breaking down. San Diego A – West Coast trips have not fared well for us. The Chargers play better as the season progresses. This will be a very difficult game. New York Jets H/A- We can beat the Jets. Sanchez is capable of implosion; the offense does not impress me. We tend to split the series with them historically. I certainly expect us to be within a TD in at least one if not both of the games in the 4th quarter. We need to finish it off. Dallas A- The Cowboys could be tricky. Great passing teams scare me. It’s more winnable then SD. They have some uncertainty with injuries. They could be streaking by then or could be going in another direction. Giants A- They have potential to play great football or lay an egg. I view this as a must win, especially when you compare this match up to some of the other teams listed. New England H/A- This is probably the best team in the league. We do get them again on the final week. We have potential for them to have locked up HF by then. A split is possible with some favorable bounces. Maybe the gods step in week 3 and ensure it. That would be monumental to our playoff aspirations. Philadelphia H- Another one of the best teams in football. I can see us being competitive in this game but it will be a major challenge. I think we need 3 out of 8 from this group. If you can pick 3 cupcakes scenario’s from this group you see things differently then I do. Again we will have to earn it. The rest….. Cincinnati A Miami H/A Denver H Tennessee H Washington H These are likely not playoff teams, again, that could change, but as it stands it looks like we should be favored in 5 of 6 of these. When you look at the first grouping, we will not be favored in any of them. Winning even 3 from the first group will be a solid achievement for this team. If they do so they need to win 5 of 6 from the remaining games I show to finish 10-6. Long road ahead, but it’s nice to be able to even consider the possibility.

New England is better then us. So first we need to lower the amount of possessions per team. With each increased possession variation becomes smaller and smaller. We wan't variance, randomness, whatever you wan't to call it. Offensively that means possessing the ball as long as possible. They will dial in on the run expecting this. We need to have a full arsenal of 4-6 yard passes to mix in with the run. Sort of play New England offensive football right back at them with more emphasis on the run. Don't abandon the big play completely. But take your shots in big ways. I don't wan't to see a ton of 15-20 yard passes in the air which have high INT's/short field turn around potential. I wan't to see 5-6 yard run passes and 40+ yard passes. If you get picked off turn it into a punt interception. We can't have turnovers, we might be able to survive one, but no short field turnovers. I would have a few new wrinkles to the Wild Bill package. Sprinkle in a ST's surprise. Either Fake punt or trick onside kick. Go for it on 4th down more then normal. Outside your own 40, less then 3 I'm going. Place a special emphasis on 4th down situations of 0-5 yards this week. Come out heavily prepared vs New England's 4th down/short yardage packages. On defense concede the run and the deep ball, not drastically, but force NE to execute outside of the short passing game and TE's. That is what they feel most comfortable in and it's all about forcing them out of that comfort zone. I double the TE. I tell my corners to sit on short routes. Focus most my pressure over the Center and Guards. Brady seems to only get rattled from interior pressure. Take my shots on Brady as far as drawing personal fouls. Minimize the damage, for example 2nd and 2 on the 20, no reckless or careless shots in regards to down and distance. Play smart. The goal is to win the game, it's professional football, I don't want to injure him, but if hitting him and taking 15 yards a few times takes him from 400 yards passing to 250, we have to do anything possible to hit him. In my experience watching him he only fails when he's pressured. After losing a gazillion straight we have to hit him at all costs. Don't let him have the ball last.

Love the captain hindsight episode. Classic. Hell, what does South Park do that isn't. That show will be on another 20 years.

Ya, my wife and I were rolling on the ground when we first watched that. Be warned, highly addicting.

Sorry. I should have used something with puppies or kittens.

I'm turning 30 soon so needs to be in perspective I was very young for WR, which certainly would be #1. 1. MCM 2. Just give it to em 3. Steelers back ups 4. Flutie Dolphins playoff game 5. MNF Dallas Sure I could name several more, but to be honest I rather wouldn't.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Lsmh7zX6w8&feature=related Sorry if this was posted already, I just couldn't believe the video. Highest ever hit recorded pound per square inch. Outperformed Sue in the other test they ran, Dareus is literally a freak of nature. How can't you be excited about this guys?

Hello everybody. I used to be very active on the forums. Slowed down a bit the last few years, just been busier then hell, but I expect to be more active again. It’s really great to see some of the same names I got used to over the years still posting. After watching the Monday night game just a few thoughts on Oakland. The name Oakland makes you think we could open 2-0, I’ve already read as much on the boards. I certainly hope Buffalo is ready for what’s to come. I don’t care how bad the Broncos are. Monday Night, at home, Denver is a very difficult place to play at. Oakland will present a lot of issues for what our perceived weaknesses are and week 2 will tell us more about this team then we could have imagined otherwise. The Oakland front is big, long, physical, and very aggressive. Can we run the ball? This is one of the better defensive lines in the NFL. Can we match the Raiders physicality? It’s clear they fully intend on transforming to the Raiders of yesterday. We have heard that before, but this team literally beat the piss out of Denver’s line as if it was a JV high school squad. We will need to play with extreme mental fortitude. Can we protect Fitz and will Fitz make good decisions? Denver is certainly prone to becoming one dimensional. After watching this game, Oakland is going to make a lot of teams one dimensional this year. The aggression in the run defense transcends to the passing game. Most QB’s resemble two personalities, one if they have time to throw and one without. The latter is what separates the best. Fitz can’t make mistakes, and the Bills offense must force this Oakland offense to beat them. Protection will obviously play a large roll in this department. Finally, how good is our defense, more specifically our run defense? McFadden is a beast. One of the few elite backs in the NFL, big, fast, powerful and agile. He will pound you for 4 quarters, can we meet the challenge in stopping the run? Again, can we be as physical as them? Before tonight, I allowed myself to visualize a 2-0 start (regrettably). How many years have we trained ourselves to not get caught up in 1 week with this team. Still, it’s a very likeable group. Perhaps the most I’ve seen in a decade. I really haven’t been this excited since Takeo’s first year. Just a lot of players, no huge names, guys care about each other. Our talent is underrated as we have several young players potentially set to break out. Nobody really knows how good we could be. In no way did I consider the Oakland game a defining test for this team. It’s week 2 for god sake, but after watching the Denver game, Oakland does just about everything well that the Bills were perceived to struggle in. How we perform will tell us a lot about our growth and what we can expect the next few weeks. It’s more then just a score, as I did not feel the Oakland/Denver score reflected how fully the Raiders dominated at the point of attack. If nothing else, I want to see Buffalo play with aggression and not get pushed around. Denver got so physically beaten by Oakland, I just can’t see that happening to us and still harbor grandiose thoughts about our drought ending.I want to see the Bills refuse to get pushed or bullied. It’s all about matching the Raiders physicality and intensity. Yes, I sure as hell want to get the win, obviously that’s what all of us want most. But if the Raiders physically manhandle us, well, that’s the complete opposite of the spectrum. That is what I fear the most. Should make for a hell of an entertaining opener, for those attending shake that stadium like the Dallas MNF game years ago, we need the 12th man in full force! Circle those wagons baby, Go Bills!

"I expect it. I think our players expect it. If you don't expect it, something's wrong with you. If you say I want to be a little better than last year, you ought to get out, that's wrong. I expect to win every one of them, I expect to be undefeated, that's the way I've always been and that's the way I'll always be." People are taking this way to seriously. Read between the lines. He's not predicting that will happen, he's just saying if your goals are not to win every game and make the playoffs/super bowl you have problems. That's his goal, that's the player's goals. The goal is not marginal improvement. What is he supposed to say? Well, given the youth, talent level, and pay roll, I don't expect us to make the playoffs, but I hope we can improve every week and at the least make it entertaining for the fans. That would go over very well with Bills nation.

Suh and Fairley, in a 4-3? Christ, I would not wan't to be an interior lineman vs this team. Nobody is going to run on them.

I don't like Mallett and don't want him anywhere near a Bills uniform, but I would like to know the nature of his addiction before I red flag him for drugs. I red flag him as a QB, but stating he has a "drug problem" on PFT means little to me without having some context. Further a hair follicle test isn't something I would put much weight on. I mean at certain times (the time of life he's in right now) I might have had some pretty nasty stuff show up on a follicle test, especially given how long a time a follicle test dates back. But in no way was I addicted to those substances, not even close. More like an early 20 year old being stupid and trying to have a good time. No different then a large percentage of society I imagine. Do people know if they make everyone do a follicle test? In theory, depending on how long your hair is, pot could show up several years later. Usually they only test about three months back, based on hair length, and if you hadn't noticed he keeps it pretty short, maybe for that reason Still you can beat any of these tests as long as you know the tricks of the trade, rendering them even more pointless. Pass on Mallett because he's a slow reading mental midget, I don't really need any other reasons.

QB's in the NFL just don't have the luxury of finding an open receiver a lot of the times, and they have such little time to make a decision. Often times they need to throw to a covered player hoping to put it in a spot in which only your guy can get it. That's not easy thing to do without racking up a plethora of INT's. Most QB's either never learn to do this and fail or they stay so conservative and scared of the pick that they fail. Fitz racked those picks up earlier in his career but seems to be getting it now. What's funny is the same pattern existed with many current pro bowl quality QB's. High TD's, High INT's, high yards per attempt, then as they progressed the INT's fell off and wham, a franchise QB emerges. Not saying Fitz is that guy just yet, but what he's showing is pretty darn encouraging. He's still growing, yet he trusts his guys and allows them to make plays and in turn I think this breeds trust a development from our skilled position players and offensive line. Not only does he trust his guys but those INT's are also starting to fall off, another very, very encouraging trend. If this keeps up we will not be drafting a QB folks, and gosh that would be great because we sure has heck need more 3-4 based personal. Thanks Fitz, thanks for giving me the hope that seemed to be forever lost with this team.

Luck is the next Manning/Marino/Kelly sure thing if you could ever say such a thing. He runs a pro style play action offense at Stanford. Great arm strength, accuracy, work ethic, a huge brain, and he can run. To me he's head and shoulders above Mallett or any other QB prospect that's come out for several years. The last time I was this high on a guy prior to the college season ending was Ngata. Still want to cry over passing on a decade long defensive mountain. Not sure if Luck will declare or not, but I hope potentially going to the Bills won't adjust his thinking. Players of his talent always go to low end teams. He has an opportunity here like Kelly had, to be a legend, more then a QB, but a legend. The task is daunting, but the true greats seek out such challenges. If he stays I expect it to be more because Stanford and JH then Buffalo or the team he might go to.

I was 8 when I started to watch the team. From the Michigan area, just never enjoyed the Lions. I loved football, an NFL historian if you will. I grew up watching the good times. I loved the team, I loved the weather, the fans. This franchise embodied what football meant to me. Being a Bills fan is all about loyalty. Personally I enjoy the banter amongst fair weathered fans. You can make them look like fools pretty easily. Whats nice about most Bills fans is we also come well educated. It's nice to see the look on "die hard" faces when your own knowledge of the team they love is superior. That usually shuts up any talk about the last decade. Plus I feel all things in life that have true meaning come with hard work, dedication, failures, successes....I know when it finally happens, the feeling will be more then what most fans feel, and to me that's worth it.

I'm in Toledo, Ohio. Under my name it actually says stuck in Toledo, Ohio. Although it's been five years now so I don't think I'm stuck. I've actually come to enjoy the area a great deal. The cost of living is so low. The people are extremely down to earth. The different races are tolerant and respectful of each other (this might be true in a lot of places but not where I grew up). So many food and shopping choices. Close proximity to several major cities.........

the simmons article is exactly why I'm not a Michigan football fan. The atmosphere at the big house is so pathetic I won't even attend the stadium anymore. how 100k of people can't create a home field advantage is beyond me.

But how long does that take? I love the 3-4, but I'm not a proponent of forcing a system on a team that doesn't have players for it. We have maybe 2-3 guys in our front seven who might work out. Just about everybody else is a round hole in a square peg.

Unless we have CMU alumi on the board I know I've watched him more then anybody. In person twice, on tv about 7 or 8 times. I think he's a good college player, but I never saw him as a NFL QB prospect.

zero chance at having a good defense for at least a couple of seasons + high likelihood of having a below average offense = new coach again 3 years from now.......Yippie I love the 3-4, but you would be hard pressed to find a team in the NFL set up worse to run it then us. Glad so many got what they wanted..sarcasm on

The guys played how many straight games? I certainly don't question his heart. But for those in shock, let me say, how do you think most players look after these games? I remember in just high school my hand sandwiched between two helmets, swelling like something out of a science fiction. Not broke, so I played. I had a teacher ask me if I was having problems a home because my forearms were constantly black, swollen, and lumpy. These guys might pop right up after a big hit but we usually never see the damage it leaves behind. At that level it has to be very severe, and if it ain't broke, most players will play threw it. I really can't imagine what these guys body's look like after a games over.

No BM but he really mastered the Buffalo winds.

This is my logic progression on being with the Bills. 1. Damn it's cold, how many times will I have to look like a hard ass and not wear sleeves. 2. I have a lot of money now, the ladies love the money, gotta be better places in the country to take advantage of that. 3. Damn it's cold, how many times will I have to look like a hard ass and not wear sleeves. 4. Player signs 5. Jesus, I can't even have an unusual bowel movement without a newspaper running a story on it. 6. I'm an attention whore so number 5 can't be to bad. 7. First game, Jesus these fans are at a whole different level of craziness here. It's almost like playing in college. 8. I played like crap, now they want to draw an quarter me. 9. I played lights out, now they want to idealize me. 10. Depends on 8 and 9, if it's 8 like many recent players I can't think of a worse place to be. If it's 9, like the mid nineties guys, I can't think of a better place to be. For the purposes of this pole I think 1-3 apply most, but once players get here the future and happiness here all depends on 9 and 10. We treat our good players like no fans in the sport, and those guys tend to love it here. Likewise, we make things pretty damn hard for those who under perform (sure many other fans do, but football is not life for many other fans like it is here). Unfortunately a lot more of 8 is happening now then it used to. Which really makes 1 and 2 more relevant then it should be. Winning will change all that.

Are you kidding? Lee Evans can't be mentioned in the same breath as Beebe? Beebe was a poor mans deep threat. Remarkably high character. But not on the same ability level as Lee (speed yes, everything else no). Lee has ten times the body control, hands, and route running then Beebe ever had (not a better route runner then Tasker, as most Bills from those teams claimed him to be unrecoverable. Something that only showed itself on certain occasions in actual games) I'll give you Reed, but Reed couldn't be a more opposite a player then Lee is. He lived for those deep crossing pattens. He lived for contact, that's just who he was. It would e like comparing Jerome Bettis and Chris Johnson. Lofton is actually very much like Evans besides the size and experience he had (at his time with the Bills). Like Lee a deep ball guy who was amongst the league leaders in yards a reception during his time. Not an over the middle guy (I guess that makes him soft in your eyes, but neither have games that translated to being over the middle guys like Reed) One major thing left out here is who was throwing those guys the passes. In fact that's a REALLY major thing you left out especially when looking at Evans. The receivers you mentioned had the best Bills QB of all time throwing the passes. Lee only has had good success with a strong arm guy throwing the ball in Losman. Right now he just stretches the field to much for our noodle arms to really have a chance at using his skills effectively. I would argue Lofton would be useless to this current cast of characters, Reed greatly diminished. Evans attitude is fine with me. He wants to win. He extended, and now he's part of the situation I just described. Obviously less then ideal for him. I'll go as far to say it's downright horrible for him right now. I feel his attitude is in a good enough place to respond well if we give him more of a chance to do so. Not to unreasonable IMO.