Mikie2times

I almost think I have been underestimating the defense if that's even possible. I knew we would be very good, bordering on #1. But it's just hard to properly factor in the impact of how good this defense has been relative to age. This was a ridiculous young defense that put Pettine into a HC position. Schwartz was a solid DC, but is now an officiating consultant. It's reasonable to assume both these coaches probably fell above average in the pecking order, but I think this young Bills defense really elevated the perception of what they brought to the table. Now the defense is not so young and we have arguably the best defensive coach in the NFL. BB is the only other person in the discussion. This defense is going to be terrifying.

Did Brady Cheat? More likely than not. Is the NFL very bad at this stuff? More likely than not.

I agree with this being a final audition for Cassel and I'm doubling down on TT from back when we signed him. The Bills offense is going to live in a 15 yard vertical box. Romex philosophy will be focused on limiting interceptions. We will run the ball with a lot of versatility. Clay as H-Back, Felton as FB, singleback sets, and shotgun sets. If we go power it's Felton, if we go pass we can go Clay while still having a power look. We will see them both together in multiple sets. McCoy has experience out of spread looks as well and power looks. We will see a ton of screens, short, and intermediate routes to our WR's, all are YAC nightmares. Eventually the defenses will start to compress and we will take high % deep shots. So within such a system who would you least want to face as the QB? With TT more so than EJ or MC, you have more running options and big play potential. EJ isn't stone legged, but TT would probably be one of if not the fastest starters in the NFL. You can tell Rex loves that angle which is likely because he hates defending against it, he's said as much before. I think TT can execute this type of offense at least close enough, if not better vs the other two. The added dimension of a sub 4.5 and agile runner will tip the scales.

My apologies if these articles have been posted before. http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-mysteriously-became-fumble-proof-in-2007 http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-prevention-of-fumbles-is-nearly-impossible http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-wells-report-may-have-uncovered-the-tip-of-the-iceberg As the author points out statistics don't say why, they only can allude to something occurring, when it started occurring, and the likelihood of it occurring at random. The last 3 parts of that sentence all have very interesting information regarding the Patriots since the 2007 rule change. A couple things as they relate to me. I handicapped baseball and ran a service for about 4 years. I was not a sure thing as no such thing exists, I did have enough market influence to move a total very quickly. Take what I'm saying at face value or not, to prove what I'm saying I would have to provide my full name which is not something I'm doing on this site. I'm only giving you background because I feel pretty well positioned to discuss the merits of these articles. In the process of running my service I made acquaintances with some baseball minds that are very active in the Saber world. I learned a lot to say the least. For example in Colorado the ball just doesn't travel further, it also breaks differently depending on what type of pitch you throw because of the impact of air density on a baseball. In fact baseballs break differently in many ball parks across the United States. I actually stay in contact with a gentleman that is working on an air density controlled batting cage for the Colorado Rockies players to use. Reason is the Rockies can't travel home to away and endure the additional movement on pitches. The mental effects of a ball not traveling are hard enough, try dealing with that on top of a ball that was barely moving at home and now is dancing all over the plate away. Even worse, the west coast air density has the most pitch break out of any geographical location in the Majors and the Rockies deal with a lot of H to A situations to the West Coast. The Rockies already have known what I'm discussing for some time. They're are at a competitive disadvantage where they play and are doing everything they can to neutralize this. Sabermetrics has dozens of revelations scattered in it's history that provided teams a competitive advantage even if it was just for a long enough time until everybody else copied them. Those revelations all fell within league rules and just about every major baseball pundit applauded these discoveries as genius. Again, we can't draw a direct line to anything based on statistics, but I have my thoughts anyway. When I read these articles my feelings are Bill Belichick and Tom Brady were both aware of the impact air pressure has on a football and probably have been for decades. When I hear BB discuss his complete lack of any understanding on the topic it's comical. As a high school football player that did kickoffs (thankfully I did more) I could kick a soft deflated ball incredibly further than a hard one. The difference you felt on it's impact against your foot was instant. I even asked my coach at the time if we could use a special kickoff ball to which he replied sure and he knew exactly why. So even my high school coach knew about air pressure in footballs. Once the rule change went into effect in 2007 I think Brady and Belicheck did everything possible to get the air pressure on the balls as low as possible. I'm not willing to say they deflated to the extent to intentionally break the rules, it did in fact probably reach that level at times, knowingly or not. I'm saying they were aware the lower the PSI the more of an advantage they had and they did everything possible to capitalize on this. To me it's no different than the Rockies trying to even the playing field with an Air Density chamber or the Sabermetric discoveries that propelled the Athletics into the spotlight. I imagine to BB and TB it felt no different either. It becomes different because I think they were the only ones willing to push the air levels as low as they did. Unlike baseball in which revelations got copied nearly instantaneously, aware or not, I don't think any team was willing to try and copy what the Patriots were doing out of fear they would violate league rules. As far as competitive advantage, read the articles. I would rather be a coach going up against 52 players juiced like Frankenstein than have to always be at a disadvantage with fumbles.

Carpenter will be fine and we sure as heck need him. For a kicker one of my favorite Bills. The way he ended the Lions game last year, very hard kick, had already been hit with the laser before. You could tell he felt nothing other than wanting to send 70,000 fans home in tears and he did.

Good for him, a person shouldn't be condemned for saying they believe or don't believe. It's very unpopular in this country to not believe in god, it's so unpopular it's hard to even say that to a close friend or family member. For a public/athlete to say this on a national forum took a lot of balls.

I don't understand the obsession over PSI levels. Even if that is the main arguing point, circumstantially based on the findings it would be more likely than not the balls were tampered. If you want to form a kitchen sink debate by saying because the balls did not get tested in a laboratory setting thus rendering all tests invalid so be it. Let me know how that logic works with the misses if you ever come home smelling like lotion because you were at the strip club. "Honey, it can't be proven beyond a scientific doubt that I smell like a stripper, you're using all of your senses, logic, and reason to form that conclusion but none of those things are infallible in science so why are we arguing?" This whole incident is circumstantial, but when you include the findings, the texts, and all the circumstantial evidence you would need to be bordering on completely incoherent to not reach the same conclusion as the Wells report and the exact language it used. At which point what is and isn't fair? We know a player pressured subordinates who likely would not have jobs had they not complied to push the limits of the PSI thresholds. We see texts joking about it, employees feeling pressured, abnormal interactions. Even if Brady never desired for the balls to go lower than the PSI threshold his actions are what created a situation in which that could occur and he is responsible for the repercussions.It's really that simple and if you want to make it more complex or scientific, I would absolutely love to hear the probability of the Patriots level of fumbles over the last 5-6 years being a just a statistical anomaly. I would bet my kidney the odds of that being an anomaly in data are infinitely more unlikely than the odds of PSI levels being grossly inaccurate. Maybe the Patriots just learned a new way to carry a football.

It doesn't really sound like analytic type discussion. If they use that word to describe that behavior that would be sort of silly. I also find statistics like that relatively meaningless. That said I'm a big fan of analytics, both in sports and in business. Even the most rational and level headed individual is incapable of zero bias. Real analytics take the bias out. For me, I like to take the bias out and after that let my mind spin it a little to how it fits my world view. Look at WAR in baseball which is exactly what you discuss, Wins above replacement level. In football, I enjoy Footballoutsiders, as they take the field position, down, distance, score on every play and they compare the result to the historical average outcome for that exact situation. Both stats have very fundamentally sound methodology and both also say "This is how good A is, this is how Good B is compared to A". So that method is very nice for predictive based purposes. Having said all this, the more moving parts, the less accurate the method will be as far as capturing the parts within the parts. In my opinion the new Analytics side of football players, not teams, has some value, but it will inherently be flawed, because many times it's up to the viewer to interpret the correct assignments of the players.

Agreed, lots of advantages. Practice, under perfromance, injury. I think it becomes even more important for teams without an elite QB, even more, without a named starter.

The second perception is uniform and without bias nobody will talk about analytics. Until that point it will only grow in popularity.

Agree on Moulds, don't really understand why your comparing Watkins to Evans, Harvin is the comparison, 2 vs 2, and I disagree that Harvin is WAY better vs Evans was his rookie year. Evans was ridiculously explosive when he had Drew's long ball. Harvin hasn't produced a solid season in a long time. It's certainly a conversation, could go either way, but it's not definitive. Pat Williams was dominating as a run cog and Adams had a fantastic season that year. He did not fade into the abyss until later. I don't think I am really, but it's a comparative opinion based post so we could do back and fourth forever. Schobel gave us 10 sacks a year, P. Williams was a dominating run stopper, and S. Adams was penetrating like crazy and disrupting everything that season. I think Schobel compares to Hughes in production. I understand MD and KW are both elite as well, but between the two Williams options I don't see it being as cut and dry as you put it. In fact I would take PW vs KW. The nod goes to the 2015, but that 2004 line was still a dominating presence and opened up our exceptional LB's to roam free. I agree with this completely. The depth on the 2015 squad is way better. That could play a huge role with how injuries tend to play out, especially for us.

I was also leaning 2004 on DB's and WR's but it's pretty close and wanted to avoid this turning into a neg nancy thread. Potential/depth, that could swing either group to favor the 2015 squad, but at this phase it is not as established as those positions had been entering 2004.

2004 was the last year I really thought we should have made the playoffs. Football Outsiders had that team as the highest DVOA team to not make the playoffs since they collected data (1989). I remember that season very clearly and we just destroyed anything average and lost some real heartbreakers early. Obviously it ended in the devastating home loss on Willie Parker day in Buffalo. So who do you think should be better based on your opinion right now? QB- Bledsoe= 2004 Team Drew was under a 80 QBR and was nothing to be proud of. Only reason I'm giving him the nod is for his deep ball and the current futility of the 2015 squad. RB- McGahee/Henry= 2015 Team It isn't exactly a position of weakness on either squad, but McCoy is more dynamic compared to Willis and I'll take Fred and his old but fresh legs over Henry. WR- Moulds, Evans, Reed= Draw I would take Moulds and Evans (Rookie year) over Watkins and Harvin right now. That's a very close discussion; I just think Moulds was more polished compared to Sammy as he was a vet. Evans was a difficult deep threat with Bledsoe. Percy is more versatile and also a great deep threat. I just haven't seen big production since his breakout year and I don't know if we have a stretch the field QB. I have a draw because as you pass those two names the 2015 squad has more depth in Woods and Hogan. I think both are highly underrated. TE- Cambell=2015 Team I don’t think I need to go into this one much OL- Jennings, Smith, Tucker, Teague, Williams= Draw My biggest concern, I just think we keep following the same pattern of skill positions over lineman. DL- Kelsay, Schobel, Adams, Williams= 2015 Both defensive lines could/can completely dominate. I give a nod to the 2015 squad because of superior edge pass rushing LB's- Fletcher, Spikes, Posey= 2004 Spikes and Fletcher destroyed players in 2004. During the prolonged winning streak, they dominated. DB's- McGee, Clements, Milloy, Reese= Draw Clements was in his prime and made the pro bowl. McGee was very solid and Milloy completed a well-rounded squad. Very close and hard to make a decision either way. Special teams-=I don't know… I expect the 2015 Bills ST to be very good, but keep in mind the 2004 squad ranked #1 in the league in DVOA. Nod to the 2015 Bills at Kicker. Coaching-=2015 We had a good overall staff in 2004 but Rex beats Mularkey hands down. I also think the overall staff of the 2015 squad is very strong. Verdict- I would have to lean to the 2015 squad by a slight margin. That is with a lot of respect to the 2004 squad as well, specifically the defense which I think was one of the better Bills defenses of all time.

haha, this should be in wikipedia under women. Nothing but this.

Any chance he just did this intentionally? It doesn't mesh with his twitter post, but it didn't come off to me like Jim really cared for Cowherd. He seemed annoyed that he was getting all these descriptions thrown at him about who he was. He just seemed to get further and further annoyed at every assumption Cowherd was making. Just tossing this possibility out. He might just suck that bad, I haven't heard Jim do a lot of pressers or interviews. Thanks for the link.

It pisses me off every logical north bound route is closed right now from my work. Does it matter? Nah, I'm not that important. Somebody who tells stories with "back in my day" language should either know as much by now or is seriously lacking in many areas.

Got a new job after working 8 1/2 years every Sunday. SUNDAYS OFF NOW! WOOT. I'm a cord cutter stream only set up and not willing to budge on that. When I saw DTV started offering streaming packages for non DTV subscribers it got me very excited. That was until I read the disclaimer regarding only having this option available if you cant get DTV service. I don't know how strict they follow this but I did get denied on the basis that the previous owner of my home had DTV installed. I called back a few days later and told them I lived at my brothers house (he has an apartment). They signed me up no problem. So for those looking to go the streaming route if you get blocked on account of location think of any potential family members who might apply to the "can't get direct TV rules" and use that address for your service location. It's all streaming anyway so the billing address and where it's being streamed from mean nothing in relation to each other. I use my mom's Comcast account for HBO GO and Watch ESPN. My brothers NETFLIX account. Kick them both 5 bucks a month. My brother in law has several thousand movies on his PLEX server. I have more TV options than I could ever think of using and just pay 49.99 a month, plus the additional 10 bucks to my brother and mom.

Whoa, I usually get 2 responses in much more intelligent threads. I appreciate the collective discussion. I think I have a healthy balance on it after reading all the responses. As one poster mentioned, Bruce, Kelly, Thurman, and many Bills from the early 90's teams had many questionable moments. Personally, I was 9 in 1991, which is the time I can draw a distinct line to being a fan. Those guys were gods to me and it's not as if I was aware of adult stuff at 9. As I got older, some minor stuff happened to my Bills gods, but they also matured, so they never lost god status in my eyes. McCoy is rare talent, has a chip on his shoulder and projects to do very well this year. If that happens, I will be the first one screaming at the top of my lungs. Performance trumps this conversation tenfold. I just haven't liked the transition, and it wasn't even the racist comments or over coverage by the media that triggered it. I just started reading all his press transcripts since the trade. He would say he was moving on and within seconds throw in something underhanded regarding the Eagles. So it was like stop saying for the 10th time you're ready to move on if in your next breath you're discussing the past. Most recently he very aggressively said he was moving on. I will give him the benefit of the doubt and if he performs the Jersey wins out.

Well, I don't think this is my masterpiece post....haha I don't post as much as I once did. It has been bothering me a bit, I just like him as a player so much and I guess I just felt really disappointed with the transition. I expected turbulence but this has been a bit much for my tastes. I do agree with what you said though. I support this team and have supported them as a non local resident for over 20 years now. That certainly won't change and this is a very exciting time. He said no more questions about the past in his last presser as Whitewalker (GOT baby!) pointed out. I'll try and clean the slate. Trust me, when this went down I was one of the bigger supporters of the deal. He reminds me of Gale Sayers, who is probably my all time favorite RB.

It's simmering more or less, I just hate the fact that I don't really like a star player on this team. I don't remember ever feeling that way about a player.

Considering he shows the emotional maturity of a 5 year old, yes. If he produces it's forgivable. If he doesn't he has shown zero redeeming qualities since this went down so it's sort of hard to like him at the moment. At least for me. I will be checking back in for the season, finally have Sundays off. Probably the best year in a long time for it.

I was aware of his talent as well as the Shady nickname, I just wasn't aware how bad the Shady was. As each day elapses without his talent making up for his ridiculous comments its very hard finding any reason to like him. First he was sour on going to Buffalo, get it, that's fine. I actually liked the fact that he felt a bit scorned, figured it would be more fuel for the fire this year. As time progressed it seemed like every time he spoke he would say the right thing "I'm happy to be a Buffalo Bill, let's put the past behind" while seconds later a passive aggressive comment would follow about his previous relationship with the Eagles and Kelly. Right when you think he's finally shutting up he repeats the same crap all over again, except this time why not add the race card. After he gets smoked by the media he goes into retreat not addressing his ridiculous comments, he resurfaces somehow angry that he would be asked to discuss them at more length. As I said earlier, the guy needs to get on the field and do it fast. As it stands I have very little reason to like him and can't imagine I'm the only one who feels that way.

I don't feel like the Brady aspect is the thing that bothers me the most. I do think it assisted him, but it's not what bothers me the most. I think it's possible, in fact, even likely, that this has been going on for some time now. If you want to find a highly correlated statistic to winning% look at turnovers. When you look at how much of a statistical outlier the Patriots have been with fumbles. Something like a 10,000 to 1 rate of occurance just by random variation. That's what bothers me the most. Not even a small part of me believes that number is a result of random variation. Several players have discussed a less inflated ball being easier to carry. So talk about a direct game changer on a PED level. Add 5-6 fumbles a year to the Patriots total, would that make a difference in a game of inches? I think so.

Ya, that was a time 1st year WR's rarely saw the field. I remember when we drafted him I had high hopes. I started to think he might not deliver. All of a sudden the guy just exploded. He was a very well rounded player. Good speed, athleticism, hands, physical. Probably the closest guy I can think of now who compares in the way he plays is Dez Bryant.

Moulds was so underated by those outside WNY and I would even say by a lot of people in WNY at this stage in time. He was a dominating receiever when he broke out that gave us some great memories. I will never forget his catch in the "just give it to em" game and his record setting performance against the Dolphins in the Playoffs. Sadly both those games ended in heartbreak but I don't think we would have even been in a position to get our heart broke if Moulds wasn't on the team.