Mikie2times

I've heard all sorts of rationalization for the regression but at what point do you say, ya...It's not as good as last years team. The defense is playing 10th-15th rated football right now, no better, no worse. The 2013 squad rated 4th in Footballoutsiders.com DVOA, 2014 squad rated #2, the 2015 squad rates 10th, and will surely be falling to the 15 range after this game. I'm having a hard time with our defense regressing at the hands of a HC whose supposed to the best defensive mind in the business. It's hard for me to reconcile what that says about his coaching abilities? The path to the playoffs was with the defense being elite. We have 100's of millions tied up into the DL with a couple of those guys likely approaching decline based on age vs the incline. This really looked to be our window defensively to be special and it's just not happening. Players aren't lining up right, they're struggling to communicate, the deep seams are wide open, we haven't solved for the short passing game, we have no game plan for above average TE's, and our pressure is marginal. Now we might have lost K. Williams? How can't this reflect very poorly on Rex? It's his specialty and a regression from elite to average is enough to keep us out of the playoffs.

You can only answer your title questions with a number. What is the over/under on Rex getting fired? 1 Year? 2 Years? 3 Years? If he doesn't make the playoffs in 2015 or 2016, I feel he will be let go at the end of 2016. He won't get a 3rd try, so I agree the proper number is 2? So do people think he will be here longer than 2 years? Under says no, Over says yes.

A poster said in another thread that it looked like Roman is over scheming in the first half. I'll add, if it's not over scheming, come crunch time, Taylor or Roman have just let go. Not sure if it's Roman opening him up or Taylor knowing he is running out of time and going with whatever is necessary as opposed to focusing on being a pocket passer. It seems like every game so far this year in which we did our 3 and out disaster first half, Taylor ran more the second half, specifically in the 4th and the offense was extremely productive. It also seemed like offense was just more opened up as a whole every 4th quarter.

Agreed, he rarely gets squared up on when he's running. It's usually when he's struggling in the pocket trying to escape or behind the line, somebody roles up on his legs.

I know this sounds like a stretch as some very high end tandems exist, but just take a second to ponder it. Teams aren't throwing at Darby as much anymore. In fact, it appears teams are targeting Gilmore now. Obviously that's not working out as he has shut down his man and had 2 INT's the last two weeks. Gilmore would have likely made the Pro Bowl already in a bigger market. It's very likely he makes it this year. Darby is looking like the defensive rookie of the year. It's not just the couple of INT's or ridiculous amounts of passes defended either, he's always in position. You just can't shake the guy. If you gave him a draft slot based on performance he's a top 3 guy as he's been elite at a highly coveted position. Outside of the pass, both corners have played well in the run game. When you factor in age would you guys rather have another duo? I really don't think I would. The tandem looks elite now and hasn't even come close to it's ceiling.

I thought of Breese right away. Some can beat the rule. Being around 6 feet certainly doesn't guarantee failure, but it does make things challenging. I think Tyrod has made more of a career getting outside the box as a way to create throwing lanes. Roman often does this intentionally in play action which suites Taylor well. He is clearly being game planned to be contained on the edge. Part of his progression will have to show continued improvement stepping up and delivering in the pocket. I would also like him to attack more of the interior with his legs as he did today. I almost feel Taylor has taken such a beating being called a run only guy he refuses to run, but he's just so dynamic when he does and I just want to see that be part of his game. If teams are going to seal the edges it can create lanes in the middle especially with his explosion. Force a spy, it takes one more guy out of coverage.

Taylor struggles to see lanes in the pocket. The NFL standards for QB height exist for a reason. You need to be able to see over lineman that are 5 inches taller than you. Taylor rarely comes off his first progression and if he does it looks like a lost play more often than not. Although it's hard to see based on completion % his accuracy is inconsistent. He often holds the ball longer than planned which makes an already poor offensive line look even worse. As for the good, Taylor is the best running QB in the NFL. He isn't just fast, he's explosive with high end acceleration and enough power and agility to break tackles. He displays solid accuracy and execution on timing routes and minimal progression reads. His arm strength is NFL caliber and he has great touch in the deep passing game. Realistically everything I thought of Taylor and most people here should have thought entering the season is playing out. Did people really expect a guy who was going to drop dimes after multiple progressions? So few can? Less than 7-8. Taylor was made the starter based on the sum of all the parts. He was supposed to be complimented by outstanding YAC WR's to turn those timing and first progression throws into 7-10 yard gains. He was supposed to have a high caliber running game to open up some of those deep balls. He was supposed to have one of the top 3 outlet RB's in the NFL as a safety. It appears Bills are struggling because of Taylor but at the same time winning because of him. It probably feels that way because we just don't have anything else on the offensive side of the ball right now .Taylor wasn't supposed to be the entire offense, but that is what he is right now and we just won a game on the road against a very good defense with those conditions. In his struggles, the sum of all the parts was enough to get the win. Nothing will look pretty until we get more healthy. But the bottom line is we should take the massive conference win and remain patient.

Very early, but this is often the time frame in which people look back later on and say "if we only would have won.." We would be in the playoffs as the 6th seed playing at New England if the playoffs started today. Key thing to remember, we will likely be playing for the Wild Card. So know very early on, if you think a team is going to be hanging around come December, that H2H tiebreaker will be huge. As for the next critical one outside the division, AFC Record. Titans might not feel huge, but it's a huge game. Exactly the type of game if you lose will likely come back to haunt you in tiebreakers later on.

I wouldn't watch a leather helmet game either. I'm sure like most, you grew up enjoying the physicality of the sport. I mean NFL films and the NFL made a living off the knock out blow. We have been branded by the NFL to expect that and want that. I know this might be very out of taste but as a fan I would rather have it as before. I just don't like the feeling of seeing every solid hit and waiting to see if a flag is coming. In effort to protect the actual danger shots they also protect the unintentional but violent collisions. I sort of feel like at this point the players have the research. If they feel it's worth the risk that's a active choice they get to make. As for the NFL, I'm not so comfy with them as they withheld information that had detrimental outcomes to many people. People who never had the information to make an informed choice. The whole time the NFL fought it. Glad they're doing research in this area, I don't think it's likely to help, but if a chance exists go for it. I don't see any actual sincerity on the NFL end, more PR.

NFL markets it's entire brand for decades on concussion collisions. Now they want to try and make the game safer with a new helmet? As many have pointed out, the helmet is what makes it unsafe. You don't see Rugby players propelling themselves into each other at the speed of cars.The brain will hit the inside of your skull no matter what happens at the type of impact we see in the NFL.

Yes, pre-ordained, or just a statistical fact that odds makers adjust heavily off two consecutive home losses for the 3rd game. Then you have a potentially undefeated Bengals team we have owned historically and who I feel we match up reasonably well with. Doesn't work like that. Sports book's treat this situation similar to a back to back in an NBA game, they weight a heavy advantage to the team who is more fresh, or in this case, the team that is off two consecutive home losses. It is an individual game yes, but I'm just stating how sport books react to this event and sports book tend not to be overly reactionary.

Wouldn't shock me. I would say why go to such lengths when you're making money hand over fist but that never seemed to matter for people in the past.

We will not lose 3 straight home games. Outside of that I either agree or don't disagree enough to say anything. I just feel strong that we will beat the Bengals.

Seriously though, Jeff Blake? I mean really? Blake was known for his rainbow deep ball. Wasn't especially mobile. More of a pocket guy with some mobility. The poster who said half Vick and half Wilson has it right. He has qualities from both. His favorite QB growing up was Warren Moon. He got a lot of inspiration from Michael Vick, just being similar in style and both attending VT. Good friends now. Tyrod is incredibly athletic, but Vick was off the charts athletic for a QB. Tyrod seems more mature and polished. Less reliant on his legs than Vick was. That's where I lean Wilson. Tyrod is scrambling to throw most the time, similar to Wilson. Vick just wanted to run. Scramblin Fran

I ran a sports betting service for a few years. A lot of time invested. money was a nice supplement, especially because it was something I enjoyed, but eventually it was just consuming too much time. I played on FanDuel for a little bit. I figured how could this be more challenging than a book. Well, it is. I knew what I was up against my first day when I used all my models and saw half the teams littered with my "sleepers". Only very sharp players play for anything of significance on these sites. In any event the entire concept comparative to sports betting has really pissed me off over the years. One is deemed a skill and one is not. One is allowed to operate legally in the US and one is not. Exact same model. The skill is in the user. Hacks play fantasy, hacks bet on sports. Some people approach both with a lot of sophistication. The biggest difference I have noticed between the two is one is allowed to just plaster the TV while the other was never as bold. It shocks me. One guy in the commercial even says something like "it was such a rush winning real money". Where is the moral outrage? I can't imagine if a sports better said that on a commercial. I don't even want moral outrage. I wish both would be available and policed as much as possible. Probably won't see it in my lifetime. One thing we will absolutely see is more events like this. We will also see more "Fantasy shaving". All it takes is one player. These drafts cover thousands of games. Once we see more of this we will see an end to the commercials, add regulation, and perhaps a similar shun as sports betting.

2Pac

Good post, certainly a big part of it. Teams are going to just keep playing hurry up as we watch a Bills team scramble to figure out what they should be doing. Pressure doesn't arrive, more stress on coverage, blown assignments. Pretty much the story of the defense so far. Any team that doesn't speed things up at this point is making a big mistake. Lot's of communication problems right now. I don;t think the players feel like they can play, too much thinking.

Expectations drive reactions. As Bills fans we have learned to monitor our expectations over the playoff drought. We have been burned so repetitively and had so many moments in which we felt like we could finally let go. In the end we always found ourselves saying here we go again. Asking ourselves why did I let go, proclaiming it will never happen again. Until..... Rex Ryan comes to town, perhaps the worst emotional fit for a fan base in the history of sports. Now I like Rex, he's a great fit for the team, but as far as how he carries himself, he has no problem energizing a fan base regardless of the danger that comes out his mouth. God could not have removed my expectation shield on this team and somehow Rex Ryan did. I think he did for most of us. Beside his promise to end the playoff drought, I saw the emergence of a potential long term fit at QB. Talented players added on offense and who wasn't drooling over Rex getting his hands on this defense? Post Week 1, it was easy to go from a normal on guard Bills fan to one who forgot we have had our intestines removed by this team for he better part of 20 years. I think now is the the healthy time to realign. Healthy, not only as fans, but as we project the positioning of this team. -Rex is regarded as a defensive mastermind and we have a lot of talent. The expectation was we would be the best in the NFL, at the least, top 5. Do we play better than the first 4 the rest of the way? Likely. Do we finish top 5? Unlikely. Nothing indicates that will happen so why is that the expectation anymore? I can only assume history and Rex, but each year is different. Throw history out and as far as Rex goes this team is a better fit for another scheme. Rex has said he runs a lot of 4-3 looks, but I'm still seeing a lot of 3-4 and extravagant blitzes creating isolation match up's that are killing us. Schwartz had an approach more like Seattle and completely different than Rex. Be simple, players play fast, make the team beat you on extended drives. We do have a right to be frustrated here. Top 5 should be the expectation, I'm just letting go on that as we haven't shown any ability to play at that level thus far. -Entering the season we didn't think we had a serviceable QB on the roster. Last couple weeks some have gone as far to say we have our franchise QB on the roster. I love Taylor as much as anybody but we need to remember we didn't expect anything out of this position until Taylor showed us we might be able to expect more. We certainly will get a lot more than serviceable but if it falls short of long term starter or franchise player game to game we should not flip out. We will not get a long term answer on Taylor until much further down the road. If he plays great, it doesn't mean you should feel comfortable anointing him, and if he doesn't, we should't be calling for his head either.On this topic, Bills fans are creating their own expectations completely. Taylor was an open book to start the year and he still is. -Roman will lead to offensive utopia. Roman was not loved by fans in SF, he was looked at as very conservative. This despite a lot of success in going to B2B Super Bowls. His game plan against the two better teams (Patriots/Giants) is likely why. Awful in the first half. When he got less conservative the offense responded. Don't expect any long term adjustments. This is how he coaches. If he has to open it up because that's what the situation calls for he will, otherwise, disproportionate ground attack early. Against the B squad, it will do well, against the A squad, it will not. Against the A squad with multiple injuries to the line, it certainly will not. - Additions like Harvin, Clay, Richie, McCoy, and Miller will provide big strides on offense. I feel this expectation is accurate, but our line is in bad shape right now. Very bad. It stacks up to be much better if everybody is healthy, but that is not the case right now and we just can't afford injuries, especially if we want to play 3 yards and a cloud of dust. Harvin and Clay have made a strong impact. McCoy being out is a lot more painful than I would have liked to admit after today especially knowing he will be out awhile. Karlos is a great find, but McCoy is dynamic, specifically in the receiving game and we really need him in that role. Playoffs as Rex said? No longer my expectation. I prefer my sanity. We have the ability to reach that point, but defensive regression is enough thus far to outweigh any offensive progression. I also don't see a team that is remarkably better coached. I don't know how anybody can see that right now. So I can't give us a +1 in that area based on headlines. The offensive play calling in the first half of the two losses was horrible and Rex has been very bad on the defensive side. I look at this team right now pretty much the same way I looked at last years team. They just have a higher ceiling, which historically this team doesn't reach. Lot's of time left, hopeful, but have my shield back up.

When the dust settles we very well could end up with the two biggest steals of this draft. Karlos doesn't appear like he's good, he looks like he's special. He's like an Erik Dickerson/Terrell Davis hybrid that's pissed off. Then you have Darby who seemed like he could be a stud if he could just find the football. He's doing that consistently now.

Blue Cheese tastes like crap. I don't care for it on anything. No dipping sauce or ranch for me. The better the wing, less likely to use dipping sauce. I also didn't know WNY looked down on Ranch. Blue Cheese has a strong flavor and a unique taste. Not for everybody.

Love his play so far. Didn't like hearing in the Patriots game that a Bills player said he doesn't want to listen. Forget who it was, Williams or Graham? Wasn't Gilmore. The annuncers sort of said it and chuckled, like silly Rookie just won't listen..haha. But it sounded much more like he doesn't want to take direction, no haha. I'm pretty sure if Darby keeps playing this well he will quickly turn into the type that feels like he no longer deficates. Hopefully he's stays out of trouble. He certainly looks like a very talented corner.

True statement, which is why he had both hands hit the ball bouncing it up in the air like a volleyball. Sometimes I wonder if I'm watching the same game as other people. Hard catch, sure. Uncatchable? Players in high school, college, and NFL make that catch.

Correct Boat, I've actually watched Henson in high school. He was one of the higher rated football and baseball recruits. Played at Brighton high school. Brady was sort of your meh of Michigan, Henson was the elite prospect. I don't think anybody saw this coming with Brady. Not many did with Montana either. Both of which seemed to master the cerebral and both had Hall of Fame coaches.

He had two hands on it. Not saying it was a good pass, it wasn't, Taylor would say as much, but Sammy was athletic enough to make a none finger tip two handed catch on that ball, same as the Clay INT. I feel both replays clearly prove that is in inarguable. Amendola had a more difficult reception for New England on the final drive they had. Team sport, I don't blame Taylor for the Sacks or the Picks, I give him half the blame, as in both circumstances his teammates could have made plays just like Amendola did.

Thanks for your response. I don't see any similarities with Rodgers just because Rodgers is in a different world as far as what he does do well. Yes, he can avoid the rush and deliver from any angle. He also can read defenses, get to his 4th progressions, has a rocket arm, and pin point accuracy. What doesn't he do well? I like Taylor and Wilson as a great comparison (even if Wilson currently has a big edge) just because I don't think either will ever be a prototypical QB, but both are also not just scramblers. People have strong feelings that a scrambler isn't viable in the NFL. I share those feelings as so few have made it. I wouldn't consider Wilson or Taylor scramblers. They want to throw first and do everything possible to throw. If they have to run or see that they can hurt you bad, maybe backs turned in man coverage, they will. Taylor is a poor mans Wilson right now, both figuratively and literally. I'm fine with that after two starts and coming into the year with a very low expectation. I also happen to think he can develop even further and if so, watch out. We could finally end the turn cycle, even if it's not with a prototype. Thanks for your response. I don't see any similarities with Rodgers just because Rodgers is in a different world as far as what he does do well. Yes, he can avoid the rush and deliver from any angle. He also can read defenses, get to his 4th progressions, has a rocket arm, and pin point accuracy. What doesn't he do well? I like Taylor and Wilson as a great comparison (even if Wilson currently has a big edge) just because I don't think either will ever be a prototypical QB, but both are also not just scramblers. People have strong feelings that a scrambler isn't viable in the NFL. I share those feelings as so few have made it. I wouldn't consider Wilson or Taylor scramblers. They want to throw first and do everything possible to throw. If they have to run or see that they can hurt you bad, maybe backs turned in man coverage, they will. Taylor is a poor mans Wilson right now, both figuratively and literally. I'm fine with that after two starts and coming into the year with a very low expectation. I also happen to think he can develop even further and if so, watch out. We could finally end the turn cycle, even if it's not with a prototype.