Mikie2times

Pete I have enjoyed your posts and perspective for many years and I think all of us know that this version of the Bills has had a pretty brutal stretch of injuries. That the bye week will likely improve communication and allow us to get healthy. Odds are we will be a much better team over the final 9 games. The problem is, even with all this, to make the playoffs we likely have to win 7 of the 9 remaining games. Even with all of the variables discussed, that is a very unlikely proposition. Which now takes the drought to the point in which people who can legally drive have never watched this team in the playoffs. For those of us who can drive, we take a massive chunk out of each Sunday. For most adults, time is not something we have in abundance. This is a choice that we make as fans, to devote the time each Sunday to being a fan. It just get's old and tiring and has been going on for far too long. Even in not jumping off the cliff, I just don't see much reason to feel like the glass is half full right now.

1. I feel sick. This team is destined to be on the 8-8 to 9-7 path, this will be the game we look at in December as the “what if” game. 2. The PI call was absurd; if I’m a fan I’m angry, if I’m a coach I’m angry the refs had the ability to make that decision. We can say that call cost us the game, it should have never come to that. 3. Looking at points scored in this game is pointless. The defense played well. They seemed to be communicating better. Things seemed simplified. I think Rex did well as far as adjustments. 4. I think the viewpoint between Taylor and Manuel prior to Cincinnati was either a wash or close to it. No question Taylor wins this game and he is way ahead of Manuel as far as the total package he brings. 5. McCoy is elite. He was worth the trade. I’m not even talking about the fumble. RB’s will fumble at times. That was an incredible run and the high impact collision came as he was falling down backwards while protecting the ball. 6. Injuries are becoming too much to handle. Single high coverage all game. Easley finally beat it. No way would Jacks play us like that if Sammy was on the field. I thought our complimentary WR’s did well today all things considered. 7. Dareus has been very disappointing this year. You can put some of that on Rex but I’m just not seeing hustle from his game. Seems like so many players get paid and just check out. 8. Whaley made a very bad decision on “Meh”. “Meh” wins this game. Two HC’s indicated based on actions they didn’t feel comfortable with EJ. If your goal is the playoffs you do not make that trade. 9. Richie has been the most consistent high level addition this team has added 10. Roman vomited on himself on both opposite hand bootlegs. That is such a hard throw to make. Literally stunned we would force our QB to square hips and cross body throw on a game deciding play 11. I expect this team will look night and day out of the bye. Problem is it’s likely too late. 12. Out of all the years of the playoff drought this is shaping up to be among the more disheartening. You see the talent. It’s been either injured or underutilized. This should be a playoff team. I don’t feel like that is based on hope, but based on talent. Just a sickening feeling. 13. EJ is done. After this season I’m not sure if he can hold a backup job. Within this season, I really don’t feel like we have a viable back up anymore. Scary with a guy like Taylor. We did have a vet back up at one point. I like a lot of the moves Whaley has made, but this was a massive error and could cost him his job.

I find it unlikely that Rex would turn over the keys to his car, let it crash, and keep letting it crash over multiple seasons when his entire reputation is based on defense. I do not know for sure, nor do I even know what the definition of ownership is for a defense. It's likely Thurman could call plays, Rex has veto power. Rex is likely heavily involved in game plan and conceptual design. If Thurman calls plays is the defense now his? Does BB not run the Patriots defense?

I staff a call center and have to factor in vacation, sick days, and FMLA into staffing models. I almost think the Bills should start taking that approach at the WR spot. Let's see, we average losing 50% of projected labor annually. So if we want 5 WR and full productivity we need 10 WR over the entire year.

Agreed, this is Rex's defense. Thurman has been known as a great technique coach. I would say he's more likely responsible for the emergence of Darby than the problems on defense.

Just look at how even the Bengals came over to check on him. The guys one of the most respected players in the NFL. Class act. I remember posting on here how impressive he was in his first preseason game. That said, I didn't think in a million years he would make this type of career out of it.

Sums up how I go about things as well.

After criticizing some of his off-season behavior while simultaneously being impressed by the game tape, I have to say welcome McCoy! One of the very few bright spots from today. Anybody of the mindset that a RB still can't bring elite value didn't watch McCoy today. His stats didn't light up the screen, but watching him, it was clear his talent exceeds that of most the NFL RB's we see each week. Incredible burst, good forward lean, stop and start with minimal loss of speed, and the guy can cut on a dime. Unique talent.

I agree completely. Brady in particular. The advantage he has playing in the same system as long as he has, it today's NFL that has to be extreme. Obviously the only way to earn that advantage is by playing great year after year. I don't expect it will end anytime soon either. The guy never gets hit and still has a very live arm. He will play into his 40's. I want to puke for saying this as it's the first time, but he plays until he's 40 and holds a reasonable pace, I don't know how he isn't the GOAT.

I don't have any issues with this, in fact I agree completely that this team's personal is not right for the current system. That said, for cap reasons, the time to make a push was now. They went all in. So if you hired a guy as your HC I wouldn't think the Bills would be expecting a makeover on the same defense that was young and finished 2nd in DVOA last year.

I actually don't think I would be stunned if Ryan alters his philosophy at this point. In fact, I really don't see how it could go another way and it's also easy to understand how it went the way it did. It's pretty natural for all of us in just business to want to make a unique mark, let alone football. The best know not to reinvent the wheel but people can make mistakes in this regard. Rex has a defensive style he's branded by and it's the 3-4 and it's extravagant blitz concepts. It very well could be one of the best defenses in the world, but it's just not right for us right now. I think Rex can live with the offense being the death of him as he did in NY, but not the defense. The defense has been reasonably healthy and added Darby. The visuals look worse than the stats. This team just doesn't look organized and is putting players in positions they don't excel at. Pressure from the fans and media is being applied to both the players and Rex. The players will talk openly. Rex needs to fix this to preserve his image and I think he can let go of his brand if that is what's at stake.

With a consensus toward players not being used correctly and so much discussion on the defensive line I wanted to review the last 3 years player groupings with a focus on who is currently on the roster. This is a period in which we ran a very similar version to Rex Ryan's defense in 2013, switched to a 4-3 in 2014, and back to the 3-4 led by Ryan in 2015. First things first, let's do a quick review of the staples of each philosophy and what you look for in players. 4-3: Typically has both DT's lined up in the gaps, but you will see some head on fronts. DT's that excel tend to have equal parts power and quickness. DE's tend to line up on the Tackles or TE's, some very head on/outside shoulder. DE's that excel in a 4-3 are better pass rushers vs run defenders. DE's in a 4-3 scheme are the players who have the largest responsibility for providing a pass rush. OLB's in a 4-3 scheme tend to be more geared toward pass defense than pass rushing. Often times teams will have one OLB who is more of a primary pass defender as strong suit and one who is primarily a run defender as a strong suit. It's not very common for teams to covet elite pass rushing OLB's in a 4-3 defense. 3-4: NT lines up straight on the center and it's his job to eat up as many blockers as possible. The best NT's are impossible to move. Massive size and strength. DE's in a 3-4 are similar to DT's in 4-3. Few 3-4 Ends have dominated as pass rushers and run defenders, those that have are considered elite. Most 3-4 ends are more man eaters, much bigger than a 4-3 DE, much more geared toward run defense than pass rush. OLB's in a 3-4 need to be able to rush the passer. They're the same as DE's in a 4-3 as far as having that be a huge responsibility. The best ones are elite pass rushers but also capable of occasionally dropping into coverage. The 3-4 concept is designed to create more confusion as either OLB can rush by themselves and create a 4-3 look or together creating a 5-2 look. It can get pretty extravagant in this system based on the combinations of pressure you can bring 9-Wide: Is a variation of the 4-3 in which the DE's line up a decent amount on the outside shoulder of the T or TE. They angle positioning inward to take a direct line to the QB. This defense has been under fire for creating large rushing lanes but has received praise as far as it's pass rushing capability. 2013 NT- M. Dareus DT- K. Williams OLB- J. Hughes OLB- M. Williams OLB- M. Lawson OLB- N. Bradham Observations: Both Williams and Dareus are very rare in the sense that they can play NT or DT. In 2013 Dareus played NT and recorded 7.5 sacks which is insane for a NT. Williams, while listed as a DT, played DE. 4 starting players posted as OLB's that year. Hughes and Williams can play DE/4-3 or OLB 3-4, however neither are the best fit for 3-4 DE. Lawson joins them as more of a traditional pass rushing OLB. Bradham strengths are in pass coverage not pass rushing, so he's sort of a round peg in this system. This was the year Kiko legend was born and the Bills finished the year 4th in Football Outsiders DVOA on defense. 2014 DE: J. Hughes DE: M. Williams DT: K. Williams DT: M. Dareus OLB: N. Bradham OLB: P. Brown Observations: The Wide 9 version of the 4-3 is installed. Hughes and Williams, whose best strengths are pass rushing are plugged into traditional DE's. Dareus is no longer plugged into "body eating" role at NT, but is now allowed to penetrate more. Kyle Williams moves from an outside position as 3-4 end to the interior. Bradham plays the coverage linebacker you like to see in a 4-3 while Brown plays more of the Run Stopping OLB you like to see. This defense finished 2nd in the NFL in DVOA on Pro Football Outsiders. 2015 DE: M. Williams DE: J. Hughes NT: M. Dareus DT: K. Williams OLB. M. Lawson MLB: P. Brown OLB. N. Bradham If you look at 2013, we had a very good defense. The player groupings did not fit perfectly, but we have some diverse players. M. Williams and J. Hughes can be DE's in a 4-3 or OLB's in a 3-4. Both DT's can be NT's or DT's or 3-4 DE's. We can play a 3-4 and we did a good job of it in 2013. 2014 was a breakout year. I don't think Jim Schwartz was a genius, but this groups talent is best suited for a 4-3. Mario and Hughes pass rushing, two very rare DT's capable of penetrating or also eating up blockers. Perfect 4-3 DT'. Two very complimentary OLB's. Throw in the Wide 9 variation and the system is built for this roster. Our DT's held down the massive gaps and collapsed the pocket while our widened edge rushers closed down any form of retreat. Few teams could run this system without getting killed on the ground, we probably have the best roster in the NFL for it. Moving onto this season it's a return of 2013. That said, if you look at the 2015 depth chart it shows like a 4-3 team. This is also the depth chart they show to open games. Unless you move Mario to 3-4 End this line up can't work. While Mario can play 3-4 end, it's not as natural of a pass rushing position. Bryant is likely getting a lot of snaps in this spot. So now you move Mario to 3-4 OLB (or Hughes). Now both players will have some pass responsibility. Bradham, as he was in 2013, does not fit. Dareus, is now being asked again to anchor and a lot of the same can be said about K. Williams. In 2013 the 3-4 was not the right fit for us, but we have unique talent that can make it work. 2014 we ran a system that was literally built for this team and it's gazillion dollar DL. 2015 we went back to a system that isn't the right fit and I imagine we complicated it ten fold compared to the 2013 system. Keep in mind last year, with the Wide 9, it was free lance city for this DL. Now it's all responsibility, assignment based football which is often times taking the strengths of the roster away. I do expect us to play better as our problems are compounded by the complexity of the system. Will we reach 2014 standards? Absolutely not. That was the defense we should be running until the end of time and Ryan is not dumping his defense for another even if it's to the detriment of the team. I think our best hope is he can simplify and get us back to a 2013 trajectory.

They have a much better 3-4 DL. Certainly the OL is better. I wouldn't trade corners, just based on our having so much youth and still be on par. Marshall is not a guy I want around, but damn good player. As many pointed out, Jets have cruised with a cake schedule. I did expect them to be good this year, 10-6 area fighting with us. The first game we play against them at NY will not be easy.

This is too fast for it to be regression based in my opinion. If it was that simple to take away our pass rush by executing a short/timing based passing game, why would anybody place emphasis on building a strong DL pass rush? So the punch to our pass rush is the short timing routes, when will we see Rex come up with something that look like a counter punch? As for Seattle, they should have regressed last year. They have already exceeded standard regression at this stage by such a large margin they're more comparable to the Patriots than any normal NFL team. My expectation is not to lead the league in sacks. My concerns is to lead the league in sacks consecutive years and barely be able to touch the QB with identical players. If anything we have gotten better as far as talent with the addition of Darby.

Better team this year, completely agree. But would you switch staffs with the Jets? I might just do it......

We need Goodwin so the Bills beat writers have a story they can do each year in the preseason about Goodwin's Olympic dreams.

I agree this is a big part of it. This is a run stop first defense in a league that barely even cares if you take the run away. Take last years Green Bay game for example. We allowed 158 yards rushing for 6.3 yards per carry. Green Bay had it's way on the ground. Buffalo didn't care. They left 7 to defend passing lanes the whole game basically letting the DL abandon gap responsibility and sell out rushing the passer. It led to probably the worst day of Rogers career. We begged GB to beat us with the run and like most QB oriented teams, they just wouldn't stay with it. The DL looks like it has rarely been positioned to just free lance and is stuck playing assignment football. I understand fundamentally that is the way you play defense, but as a franchise if you decide to unbalance the pocket book to the extent we did on the DL, let them do what they do. Which is rush the passer, not play assignment football. I'm not a quick reactor to one game, but I'm very concerned we now find ourselves stuck with a HC that is going to waste the obscene talent we have on the DL over scheming. If you want to find the source of the perceived rift between Whaley and Rex, I would have to think it's how our DL is being utilized. Rex is also in for a rude awakening with his "Let players be players" approach. The heat on the DL's lack of productivity is turning up. The more it turns up, the more Mario has to answer why he isn't doing anything, like the rest, the more we will hear about the DL not being happy in this system.

I have to think it's scheme based issues. I know we find ourselves unsure as to what responsibilities players have in a 3-4 vs a Rex Ryan 3-4, but in a traditional 3-4 your DT is a NT/anchor. Think Ted Washington. It's a role that is meant to consume as many blockers as possible. Then you have 2 very physical DE's, almost closer to what a conventional pass rushing 4-3 DT would be. The outside backers are your real pass rushers, but they have to be athletic enough to cover as they will drop into coverage. Ideally you wouldn't want your OLB's to essentially be converted DE's. Can Dareus be an outstanding 3-4 NT? Sure, but he's a heck of a interior pass rusher and if you make him an NT you take that away. Can Mario be an OLB? Sure. He's incredibly athletic, but do you really want him to be dropping back into coverage? Same with Hughes. On the flip side, both Hughes and Mario are not ideal 3-4 DE's. Since we don't have a true 3-4 DE, why not move Kyle over. Can Kyle be a very good 3-4 DE? Sure, he has the qualities, but it's certainly not his natural position. A 4-3 defense is what this team is built around. Mario is a text book 4-3 DE. Hughes is a mix between a 4-3 End and a 3-4 OLB. Kyle and Dareus are dominating as 4-3 DT's. This whole player fit was my concern entering the season but I felt based on Pettine it wouldn't hurt us. Well, it seems to be hurting us. Perhaps Rex brings twice the playbook, as most have commented, this defense does not seem to be playing right now. They seem to be stuck in assignment mode, often times not even knowing the assignment. Players need to play, not think. We have the wrong roster for the system and in the ways that it's functional, Rex has done a poor job putting players in position to be successful by what is being asked of them. The whole term "A Rex Ryan" defense. I just don't think Rex knows how to dumb it down so guys can just play. He has to have his urine all over it to fit the Bravado that is Rex Ryan. I would rather have a defense not named after it's coach, but named after it's players, with a coach that is putting his players in the best places to be successful at all times regardless if it lacks some sort coaching name brand. Who is responsible for the Legion of Boom? Pete Carroll. His name doesn't get attached to it like a Rex Ryan defense, but it's one of the best defensive runs in the last 15 years. It's named after the players and I really don't think a guy like Carroll cares what they call it or what he does. He just wants to win. Rex needs to stop peeing on stuff and let the talent on this team make him look good.

Forget all the injuries and offensive problems. I would be more optimistic about the season if the area in which this team had been elite, which is also the area our HC is touted as elite, performed at a top 10 level. If the defensive doesn't play top 5 football, we have little chance.

I've heard all sorts of rationalization for the regression but at what point do you say, ya...It's not as good as last years team. The defense is playing 10th-15th rated football right now, no better, no worse. The 2013 squad rated 4th in Footballoutsiders.com DVOA, 2014 squad rated #2, the 2015 squad rates 10th, and will surely be falling to the 15 range after this game. I'm having a hard time with our defense regressing at the hands of a HC whose supposed to the best defensive mind in the business. It's hard for me to reconcile what that says about his coaching abilities? The path to the playoffs was with the defense being elite. We have 100's of millions tied up into the DL with a couple of those guys likely approaching decline based on age vs the incline. This really looked to be our window defensively to be special and it's just not happening. Players aren't lining up right, they're struggling to communicate, the deep seams are wide open, we haven't solved for the short passing game, we have no game plan for above average TE's, and our pressure is marginal. Now we might have lost K. Williams? How can't this reflect very poorly on Rex? It's his specialty and a regression from elite to average is enough to keep us out of the playoffs.

You can only answer your title questions with a number. What is the over/under on Rex getting fired? 1 Year? 2 Years? 3 Years? If he doesn't make the playoffs in 2015 or 2016, I feel he will be let go at the end of 2016. He won't get a 3rd try, so I agree the proper number is 2? So do people think he will be here longer than 2 years? Under says no, Over says yes.

A poster said in another thread that it looked like Roman is over scheming in the first half. I'll add, if it's not over scheming, come crunch time, Taylor or Roman have just let go. Not sure if it's Roman opening him up or Taylor knowing he is running out of time and going with whatever is necessary as opposed to focusing on being a pocket passer. It seems like every game so far this year in which we did our 3 and out disaster first half, Taylor ran more the second half, specifically in the 4th and the offense was extremely productive. It also seemed like offense was just more opened up as a whole every 4th quarter.

Agreed, he rarely gets squared up on when he's running. It's usually when he's struggling in the pocket trying to escape or behind the line, somebody roles up on his legs.

I know this sounds like a stretch as some very high end tandems exist, but just take a second to ponder it. Teams aren't throwing at Darby as much anymore. In fact, it appears teams are targeting Gilmore now. Obviously that's not working out as he has shut down his man and had 2 INT's the last two weeks. Gilmore would have likely made the Pro Bowl already in a bigger market. It's very likely he makes it this year. Darby is looking like the defensive rookie of the year. It's not just the couple of INT's or ridiculous amounts of passes defended either, he's always in position. You just can't shake the guy. If you gave him a draft slot based on performance he's a top 3 guy as he's been elite at a highly coveted position. Outside of the pass, both corners have played well in the run game. When you factor in age would you guys rather have another duo? I really don't think I would. The tandem looks elite now and hasn't even come close to it's ceiling.

I thought of Breese right away. Some can beat the rule. Being around 6 feet certainly doesn't guarantee failure, but it does make things challenging. I think Tyrod has made more of a career getting outside the box as a way to create throwing lanes. Roman often does this intentionally in play action which suites Taylor well. He is clearly being game planned to be contained on the edge. Part of his progression will have to show continued improvement stepping up and delivering in the pocket. I would also like him to attack more of the interior with his legs as he did today. I almost feel Taylor has taken such a beating being called a run only guy he refuses to run, but he's just so dynamic when he does and I just want to see that be part of his game. If teams are going to seal the edges it can create lanes in the middle especially with his explosion. Force a spy, it takes one more guy out of coverage.