Mikie2times

Great character, great athleticism. The most injury prone player I have ever seen.

WR's are never playing a large role in this offense, but we lose all of our vertical passing game if Watkins is injured. The vertical passing game needs to be in play in all of our games. It's a huge part of Tyrod's game and the main area Roman seems to pick up yardage in the passing game. If the vet minimum with an incentive based contract is an option I don't see how that hurts us. That type of money is just as likely useless elsewhere on a retread, which is what I would consider Harvin. Just with upside and very specific upside that relates to this team.

That's it. Even in the normal job market if you held a high position, quit before you established yourself, then applied for another similar role, I just don't see it going well. You gave up on exactly what you're seeking. You also put your employer in a difficult position when you quit. Marrone made a very poor judgement call on how this would play out and that's on him. I don't think the scenario requires hindsight to see things going this way.

Gilbride spoke to a lot of the reasons people still think the verdict isn't out on Taylor. Taylor really didn't show all season that he could read a coverage and throw to a man who was was covered but about to become open after his break. That is what all the best ones do. It's also the hardest thing to do as a QB. Only 3-5 guys can do it consistently and about 5 more can do it inconsistently. Then you take in the other comments and it's the balance of what Taylor did do well. We already know most QB's in the NFL don't pass the test Gilbride was holding Taylor to. So now you have 20 or so QB's that will be a blend of arm/accuracy, deep passes, 1 or 2 read passes, improvisation, limiting turnovers, and running. In these areas Taylor probably had the best seasons in the NFL. In fact I would argue we didn't lose a game all year with because Taylor was the starter. He had better games than others, but he never was so bad he was the predominant reason for the loss. Tyrod might not ever be a true franchise QB but if he's the next best thing to one he's might just be as valuable.

If we got anybody who fits into the DL it would the Jets NT Harrison. He's a beast 3-4 NT and very young.

What came first the chicken or the egg? It takes a great model to build leaders. I don't know if Rex is providing that model. As far as the players, so few individuals are natural leaders. I don't know how many we have. The combination is not good.

We build a 3-4 defense and if Rex doesn't work out we hire a coach or DC that runs the 3-4. We have excellent corners. Damon Harrison of the Jets would be great at NT. He is young and will be available. Dareus used to be a 3-4 DE at Alabama. I hate saying it but I could see Mario and Kevin Williams being cut. We need the cap room. LB is a huge focus, both a middle and either a balanced or edge OLB. That would be a start.

That's the other part. All speculation, but no Rex and I don't think we get Richie or Tyrod, no Roman and I don't think we get Clay.

You can measure yards, yards a play, sacks, passer rating, it doesn't matter how complex the formula, the only one that matters is points and in the defenses case, points allowed. This is how Rex lead defenses have ranked in points allowed since 2011. 2015- 16th 2014- 24th 2013- 19th 2012- 20th 2011- 20th Rex has a combined record as a head coach of 32-46 in the last 5 years. He has not posted a winning season in 5 consecutive years. I know the only way for me to find balance and hope that the next 2-3 years of my fandom aren't ruined is in chalking this year up to a new scheme. Feeling as though our players will "get it". That Rex really is this special mind and once we get a few more "3-4" guys we will turn the corner. The truth is I feel like I'm lying to myself. Where is the basis for this hope? Rex was good with multiple hall of fame players at Baltimore. Then Rex had his success with the Jets those first two years. Rex has a famous last name associated with defensive greatness. He captures the national medias attention which allows him to always stay relevant. This reinforces his defensive guru status as a result of the previously mentioned reasons. That is the Rex loop that the hope of a better future is based off of. So the question becomes how much of the Baltimore period and the Jets AFC championship runs were Rex? If the answer is a lot, the next question becomes, how much has the game changed? Is what Rex is used to doing being offset by rule changes and changing offensive philosophies? What Rex is doing, for going on a half decade, is not working and the objective information showed that pretty clearly prior to his hiring. The more I type, the more frustrated I'm getting at the front office for this hire. They got sold. Sure, so did we, but it's not our jobs to make these decisions and with the roster/system fit on top of it it's just hard to see why they bought. Horrible decision by the Pegula's and all involved.

Cap Casualties with savings over 700k I would think these are likely Mario Williams- Cap Savings 12.9 million Dan Carpenter- Cap Savings 1.7 million Anthony Dixon- Cap Savings 1.2 million Marquise Goodwin- Cap Savings 710k Given who we sign, how injuries heal,I think these are possible Kyle Williams- Cap Savings 5.0 Million Eric Wood- Cap Savings 2.5 Million Leodis McKelvin- Cap Savings 3.9 Million Manny Lawson Cap Savings 2.7 Million Kraig Urbik Cap Savings 1.8 Million Key Free Agents: Richie Incognito, Cody Glenn, Bradham, Alex Carrington Free Agents to consider on Defense NT- Damon Harrison, Haloti Ngata, BJ Raji among others. This is a deep class of 3-4 NT's. Slip in an actual 3-4 NT and Dareus can move over to DE and be more of a Wilkerson type player. OLB- Calvin Pace is a former Rex player, old. Maybe worth a 1 year deal if he comes cheaper than Manny. MLB: Demario Davis is another former Rex player and is much more in the mold of the ILB you want in this scheme Harrison and Davis are both young, both would make an instant impact. Pace just seems like a possible swap for Manny depending on money. Neither are solutions, we just likely need one more year out of either. At this point I see Mario as gone and the likelihood of us building toward a 3-4 roster as strong. If Rex gets canned one day that's fine, let's have a solid 3-4 roster built out for his replacement. (Who with our luck will play the 4-3)

These are my thoughts as well. Nobody can say how much influence Rex had on Taylor coming here, certainly a chance to be the starter weighed heavily. From what I have heard, Whaley and Roman never gushed over Tyrod. Even in the preseason, you never heard much in the way of praise. I could easily see this thing being something along the lines of Rex getting a bone from Whaley. Cheap QB, another guy for the competition, but it seems the main guy who has been consistently high on Tyrod has been Rex and that started before he came here. I hate what Rex did to our defense and I agree with a lot of people that it will need rebuilding. LB's specifically and we likely lose some talented players, as some just have too high a price tag for the role they have in this scheme. It's easy to say we lost a year in 2015. It feels that way. But if Cassell or EJ start, I still feel we lose 2015. Then we enter 2016 asking once again who will be our QB? Obviously I'm not sold on Taylor completely, but I'm sold enough on him that we can make the playoffs with him and a top 10 defense. I suppose I would rather enter 2016 with the challenge of being a top 10 defense than the challenge of asking who will play QB.

Would you trade the combination of Roman as HC and Schwartz as DC, for the combination of Rex as HC, Roman as OC, and Tyrod as QB? The scenario I'm proposing is Tyrod never coming to Buffalo if Rex doesn't.

Very rare for me to post about a non call on the forum as it seems just about every non call is always a hot topic. I suppose it's being outdone by the cementing of our playoff fate. I thought this was a very bad non call. Graham had an angle to make a play on Ertz but got completely taken out. This led to the game winning FG for the Eagles. Was it just as obvious a pick play to everybody else?

Like the thread a lot just as far as keeping perspective, it's not easy though as you have to essentially erase the past to arrive at that place. People are angry that they felt we had a much better team and I can't say I disagree with them. I can also appreciate the need to allow a staff time to build a team, but that feeling is somewhat offset by the fact that Rex has not been successful in a long time. This would make 5 consecutive seasons in which he could not eclipse .500 with a record during that time of 32-45. I'm with you in the sense that we seem to be our own worst nightmare as far as not showing patience and always ending up in this head coaching loop but at the same time I just don't think Rex is a very good HC.

Really, it's not that I don't like it. I'm neutral. It's not my preferred game but I'm of the opinion that all 3 should just be regulated. I just don't like how DFS gets treated differently regarding the use if the word skill and that will be the predominant conversation we hear over the next year or two. All evidence is completely lopsided that in poker, sports, or DFS some players have shown that skill applies. They can consistently make money. It's usually not in the glamorous fashion it gets portrayed, but after thousands of trials they have demonstrated that they have an edge. In all 3 the number of people who make up this category is under 5%. If 1 person in a million can beat something does that then mean all the other 999,999 players who also tried to beat the same thing are skilled? I see no distinction between the 3 regardless if the packaging is different. I could see a judge poking holes in the skill conversation. That said, a lot of power behind these sites. Huge business. I think the DFS sites will survive but we will see some changes. Hopefully it brings back that idea of poker and sports. Why do people care what other people do with their money. Yes, some have addictions and it's sad and ruins lives, but the same could be said for countless legal activities.

Far as playoffs, I'm thinking the Cheifs game is way bigger than tomorrow nights.

My problem is with DFS sites getting the red carpet while sports betting sites and poker players get pushed to the curb. If you're good enough at any of them to make money over several thousand of trials your damn right you're skilled. If you're not, you're not skilled. Very few people that engage in any of these 3 activities are actually skilled, yet 1 is allowed to get away with being called skilled and brand itself differently when no difference exists.

I have my "facts" straight. I've ran a sports betting service for a decade, several years with betadvisor.com, and I have the highest ROI of any user with 500 or more selections on pickmonitor.com and it's 100,000's of user profiles. This isn't a mid 50% break even. It's low 60% break even and why is it the same as sports, because it doesn't matter what you call it, vig or rake, the house still takes it's 10% cut as a pleasure for doing business with you. Eventually that 10% will eat up your bankroll. Yes, it's skill based. So is what I did with sports betting. It's skill based for the 1-2% of the population that is willing to spend the time to actually become a +EV player. In doing so, you just try and end up on the right side of a razor thin break even % without variation eating your bankroll alive. Same concept as fantasy, you can use all your skills, but what about variation, randomness, and luck? All exist in either DFS or sports betting, skill is only a word reserved for the very few who are in fact skilled. It really doesn't matter if it's DFS or sports, If you can be +EV in either, long term, damn right you're skilled. You belong to a group of less that 1-2% of the population. A slob rolling out of bed laying $100 against the house on a bet or a $100 in DFS against 100 of +EV Skilled DFS players is not in anyway skilled. Win or lose. He's lucky. Most DFS players are just lucky or unlucky. No different than sports betting. Unless you belong to that 1-2% +EV group of people, you're not skilled in either. The only differential that exists is the UIGEA, written by the federal government, attached to the port security act, never debated on it's own merits, designed to prevent beer league fantasy players from freaking out that they couldn't play fantasy with buddy's on yahoo for a couple bucks. Oliver's analogy of the wolves running thru the door is actually pretty damn accurate.

I'm a proponent of legalized gambling. So fantasy sites should be legal, same as putting money on a spread, playing poker, or going to the track. My issue with fantasy sports is it brands itself differently when a child could tell it's the same.

He excels at timing routes, check downs, first reads, and deep balls. All of which generally don't require a lot of thought. They're determined pre snap or off a base read, what is required is a deliberate action and execution. Where he struggles is finding success within the framework of the play when it's not how I would describe as deliberate. Throwing to 2nd/3rd/4th reads. Tyrod has to see what he's throwing to right now. He doesn't throw toward a covered WR just before he breaks to become open. Rarely does he even attempt to throw if his deliberate option is taken away. More likely to improvise.

TT is not going to appease QB traditionalists. In large part he doesn't execute in situations that arent either deliberate or improvised. That said, his production and fit for this offense is very strong. I also think he is a winner. Whatever that impossible to quantify measure is, he has it. I also love watching him play, he's exciting and I don't feel I'm alone when I say that. It's hard seeing anybody taking his job for the foreseeable future.

Yup and that route, it was a thing of beauty. A lot of people compare him negatively against his draft class, but no other WR in his drat class could execute either the missed bomb or the nail in the coffin route with that precision.

I have to say, Watkins is one of the better young route runners I've seen. That's something you usually see develop with time, but he just has Corners turned around at times. Pro Bowl corners.

Dareus at DE and Mario at DE. First time I've seen this lineup. I like the adjustment. Allows both to rush the passer. Mario isn't in his best positioning but Dareus could be a force in this role. Hughes can float as the primary OLB rusher to either side. This is the adjustment I've been waiting for.

Bradham is not a 3-4 OLB, no pass rush ability Mario is not clearly a 3-4 DE or OLB Dareus is not clearly a 3-4 NT Williams is not clearly a 3-4 NT or 3-4 DE Brown is not a + MLB Lawson is not a +OLB If 6 out of 7 players in your defensive front are stuck between positions or below average you will not get good results. Communication is the worst I've seen in a Bills defense this late in the season. I really don't see this changing.