Mikie2times

Thanks, I actually was looking for as much half full data as I could. Sort of trying to look at this thru the lens of Rex Ryan minus the 2015 season. Reality is, I have a hard time coming to a happy place even though I still hold out hope that things are possible. Those thoughts are based on nothing to do with 2015. In general terms, my hypothesis, Rex has failed to adapt to the league wide aerial assault. His roots were based on learning defenses and defensive styles from a different era. While I think going run and being contrarian on offense is solid (as more and more defenses shift to pass defenders), staying large and over sized at LB, not building on 3rd down defenders at LB, not having a more modern 3-4 edge focused defense (Denver) vs being multiple. I just don't know if he understand how to adapt his system to today's game. Factor that in with an uncanny consistency to allow offenses to convert what yards they do generate into points. Just little to work with even subtracting out the 2015 Bills.

He also played those guys at 3-4 positions. It wasn't uncommon to see Pace at MLB or DT in passing downs. Same with Coples. Can't comment on Babin, but outside of the fact that all 3 players you mention had run stopping ability and 3 down ability. Probably least of which with Babin, but non of them are even remotely comparable to a one trick pony edge rusher. Again, I think we benefit. But Rex doesn't want any one trick pony's.

YPPT is how many yards it takes to generate one point. It can be measured for both offense and defense. It's not common at all to see consistency year over year in this metric, especially on defense. It is common for this metric to have a regression to the mean if teams start to deviate too much. If you want to make a few wagers next year, take a look at what teams are falling outside of standard deviation in YPPT and I would bet you more often than not you're looking at a team with value. They're generating yards or stopping yards at a rate that isn't reflective of the league average PPG based on the rate of yards allowed. The stat itself is influenced by many factors. Offense, turnovers, ST's, defensive 3rd down %/RZ/big plays. A lot of noise goes into it, but most years, the big players come postseason time are top 5 in either offense, defense, or both. Rex seems talk about leading the lead in defense a lot. When he says that, he's always referring to yards and not points. After running this data, I can see why. 2015 #19 Yards, #15 YPPT 2014 #6 Yards, #30 YPPT 2013 #11 Yards, #23 YPPT 2012 #8 Yards, #25 YPPT 2011 #5 Yards, #29 YPPT 2010 #3 Yards, #14 YPPT 2009 #1 Yards, #8 YPPT Trust me when I say the consistency of this profile can't be explained by offensive futility. Buffalo Ranked #4 in Yards and #7 in YPPT in defense in 2014. You don't see this type of consistency on defense each year and if you do, it's usually only a result of an elite defense, 2-3 years max, and the YPPT is too the positive against yards, not too the negative. Further, you don't see championship teams with poor YPPT efficiency. It's a heck of a lot easier to generate points with the yards you have and be more efficient, than have to generate more yards to make up for inefficiency. This is a death blow to my confidence level. Playoff teams don't finish poorly in this area, the consistency is overwhelming for the stat itself. If games were only one with yards and not points we would have one of the best. As is, this appears to be the anti bend but don't break. More like never bend, ever, and either win on that series or break in half.

What makes Freeney a good fit? Rex likes guys that can play multiple positions and have multiple responsibilities. The last thing he looks for is a player that can only play one position or do one thing. I don't disagree that he could be an asset in pass rushing downs but his versatility is lacking for this scheme (like it or not, I know many don't)

Red End Zones. Red End Zones. (both sides) I would also tell Sam Cowart to never play a game in Tampa. He probably would have went down as the best LB in Bills history if it wasn't for that day.

"Win Now" is almost like Draft a QB and let him develop (the progression fallacy). Look at the list of starting QB's, how many rode the pine for 2-3 years before being anointed a starter and performed top 15 for the team that provided him time to develop? Further, non year one starters showing very little only to all of a sudden "get it". I have never saw any statistical analysis that shows time turns water into wine to the extent most would have you believe. It tends to make the best better, but it's not very common for the average to become top 15 and certainly not for the team that drafted them. It's fools gold that's been sold on this site by posters and media for countless years. Same thing with draft day trade value arguments. "We got our guy in the first", yes, you might have got your guy, but most statistical data indicates the odds of your guy being "the guy" are not much greater than "the guy" being drafted a round later (of course position plays a role). I guess the overriding theme I'm getting at is like "Win Now" people throw around theories and opinions based on preconceived notions that have no basis. No fundamental proof. Just things that one would expect, but often expectations and reality have a lot of distance. Challenging this type of thinking is what led to the revolution in baseball and I expect Cleveland will see similar benefits, so long as they allow the process enough time.

Beaten Bills fan syndrome is a condition that occurs when the "Obnoxiously Obtuse Optimists" get knocked down a peg so consistently that they learn to cope thru denial, numbing of feelings, and extreme defensiveness. Often times people who suffer from BBFS have to talk themselves out of optimism in effort to avoid another BBFS attack. In doing this sometimes the victim can go too far and appear to be a "Nattering Nabob of Negativity".

Hahahaa, I corrected it as you nailed me. Well done sir.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ps8Pel9Dp9A 2:18 is a throw a lot of NFL QB's could not have made. Keep in mind this limited body of work is against the best college football had to offer. He seems to be even a better fit for our system than most others in the NFL so + on that. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kN90uJkm9nw Interesting piece on Sports Science. Certainly nothing to hang your hate on long term, but interesting. I'm not disagreeing with you. It's a hypothetical that's worth asking considering a lot of roster management is being on the best side of value, not only as a whole but as it relates to each player. I think it's reasonable to assume he did not get a first round grade from the committee (if he did go that way). I also think it's reasonable to assume he thought he might be able to achieve that by staying one more year. It went the other way and we ended up on the right side of value.

He shows an assortment of pass rushing moves. Great feet and balance for a man his size. I saw him contributing in our 3rd down package year one with upside to maybe get some more reps on non passing downs and progress into a potential every down player as time elapsed. I was thinking DE all the way as I don't see him being the type of guy to anchor as a 3-4 NT. When Whaley said "we drafted 3 day one starters" sort of caught me by surprise. Then again, he could be talking rotational starters. With our DL you have several players who could line up at End or NT. Dareus and Williams have both done the 3-4 DT/DE shuffle. On pass rushing downs specifically, you could have Adolphus/Dareus/Williams interchangeable across the entire DL. I expect we will see Rex take advantage of that. We have tons of flexibility with our roster on the defensive side.

Curious what round he would have went in. His size is lights out. His mobility for a man that size is lights out. His arm strength is probably as good as any QB in the last several drafts. Watching him throw a 15 yard out is filthy. He still looks like he can break a WR's fingers on that throw. He had just made a name for himself at that time as Ohio State made it's stunning BCS title run. So what tape people did have was Cardale carving up some very good defenses while showing the previously mentioned skill set. While I think most were smart enough to recognize he would need some time after the title run, it wasn't something that became the accepted view point until his struggles the following year. I have a hard time believing he would have made it out of 2nd round. If that's the case, just goes back to showing how much value we got in 2016 with him in the 4th.

Roscoe and McGee, the best Punt and Kickoff return men in Bills history on the same team for several years. Back then anytime a team kicked to us it was exciting.

Great find, remember that play like it was yesterday.

Fair enough Yolo, I didn't mean to pull you into something lengthy over a simple statement you made (although that's what I did, my apologies). I will say Cook did always appear to have a Bledsoe like quality to him. I used to call him mini Bledsoe to a good friend of mine who graduated from MSU. I've heard the stories about him off the field, local people talking, not just news reports. I would say it's likely these reports about him off the field have some legs. I thought he performed rather well as far as the body of his career on the field and I liked the non Bledsoe like parts to his game. I thought he showed very good ball placement on covered WR's all year in 2015, especially with Burbridge. Good arm strength. Always seemed to win, especially late in games, especially close games. That said he was also the benefactor of several outstanding defenses. I wouldn't be stunned if he shows a McCarron like trajectory in the NFL. Good college football talk. Now that I know you enjoy the Big Ten it will make for some good discussion next year. I don't have a horse in the race, but generally root for both Michigan schools to represent the state and love the conference in general. If anything I probably lean MSU, but just not near the level of being a Bills fan.

I don't know man. I know you have a level opinion and I assume you live in Ohio or at the least very familiar with Big Ten country, but this seems like reaching to cover another reach on saying Cook doesn't perform in big games. How can you marginalize the Big 10 Championship? Cook cost Ohio State a NC in 2013 and cost Iowa a potential NC in 2015. This is in addition to the biggest win in recent MSU history in the Rose Bowl against an elite Stanford defense. In order to even get to the game you're talking about you need to win these games, so while not important to you, I assure you they were very important to players and they were big games against great teams. What is your measure of talent? Alabama anytime they're a championship team? Everything is apples to apples, no differences at all between the 2015 Ohio State team vs the 2016 Michigan State team? If you do live in Ohio, north of the border, everybody expected MSU to get killed by Alabama, not because Cook, because they had won so many close games all year and just didn't look like they could play at that level. State shouldn't even have been in that game. It was nothing like the 2015 Ohio State team that caught fire with a slew of NFL talent. I'm happy to have Cardale and like the value we got with him more than if we drafted Cook, then again I also like Cook. He throws guys open and let's his guys make plays on the ball without allowing a ton of picks. That's a rare quality. Cook is? Cardale is boom or bust. Both have intrigue, big games have no part of this discussion. If anything it's a + for both.

I love the Cardale pick and while indifferent toward Cook as far as us taking him, I think this is a very poor example. Cook was the Big 10 Championship Game MVP 2 times and the Rose Bowl MVP 1 time. He won every single championship game he started in and every single bowl game. The only game he did not win is the one you referenced.

I saw a clip from the first Patriots game in 15 with Woods running wide open on a slant in the middle of the field. Tyrod just didn't see him. A lot of his game seems to be short/crossing routes and hitches, very little vertical stuff. That is not the type of player that will see big production with TT, further very few #2 WR's see production in Romans offense. At times last year Woods would talk about his role as far as being a blocking WR. How he took that role very seriously. At the same time you would sort of hear an undertone with his comments as if he wasn't happy and wanted to ball more. He's a pro, he would never come right out and say he wanted more targets. Instead he focused his energy on being a great blocker and as far as that's concerned I doubt you will see much tape that doesn't indicate as much. He was always driving CB's and playing to the end of the whistle. We will lose Woods after this year, pretty much certain of it. All the while I don't think we will ever know the type of player he was until he get's matched up with the right QB. Patriots? Wouldn't surprise me.

In what I read the Bills really praised his pass rushing when they reached out. I guess we blew his phone up when the draft ended. Most Oklahoma fans/Big 12 fan comment said he wasn't the best in pass coverage but he was dominating the conference for 2 years and was elite at pass rushing. I'm thinking special teams demon and 3rd down X Factor in the first year. Even if he's not an elite pass defender, he seems great of the edge and instinctual on blitzes, so you can use him in a variety of places on 3rd down with offenses thinking he will rush the passer. If he bails he becomes a fairly athletic pass defender. Rex loves these types. Excited to see what he can add.

My point is he plays way faster than his speed and I used Shaq's lower 40 time and game film to illustrate that point.

Shaq http://www.wgr550.com/Video-One-game-from-every-Bills-draft-pick/22719403 Striker https://youtu.be/bndBUxbJBc4 You tell me. Look at obvious pass situations for Shaq, not when he's anchoring for the run. I also think it's contain responsibility, but I just don't see Shaq hitting the edge like Striker can even if he was in more of a wide alignment. Shaq is a man. Probably the best edge run setter in the draft. This is just an observations of the edge pass rushing differences of the two. I think Striker can be a very good add for us and I like that he has this element to his game. Need some speed off the corner.

Understood, I'm a stride runner myself and suffered from good speed/poor footballs speed when I played. Watch the tape, what I'm saying has nothing to do with speed differences in stride. He is much faster off the edge than Shaq. It's not close. He's around the Tackle on some clips nearly in conjunction with the Tackle getting out of his stance. I have seen absolutely nothing on Shaq that showed the same edge/close speed. Feel free to disagree with my observation of the tape, but it looks overwhelming to me (this is with the understanding that Shaq is anchoring run a lot, just referring to clear pin back pass rush situations for both players).

Yup, really weird, first thing I looked at when I saw the tape was how they compared on the other drills. Striker was worse in just about every athletic measure. It just doesn't look close on tape, Striker comes off the edge very fast and seems to have a closing gear when he's within distance of the QB. On most of Shaq's tape a lot of the time he is supporting the run and anchors, but when he is rushing he doesn't win the edge nearly like Striker does.

Striker and his 4.80 looks infinitely faster than Shaq and his 4.70. Not a slam on Shaq, more a compliment to Striker and reason why players like him can slip. His tape looks like he has great burst off the line and closes strong. If he only runs a 4.80 it looks like he plays at that speed all the time. Some guys just don't have the straight line speed but they have great burst and playing speed, Striker fits that profile.

1. Shaq Lawson- One of if not the best edge run setter in the draft at DE/OLB. Plants and anchors in, doesn't give ground. Has enough athleticism to play 4-3 DE. 3-4 OLB, even 3-4 DE in isolated circumstances. Not fast off the edge or developed in pass rushing moves. Sort of the anti Von Miller. Could play 4-3 DE with minimal transition. Can collapse a pocket with a good bull rush, will occasionally show an effective spin move, struggles to separate against the OT once driven back. Will need to develop this at the next level. Shaq is an NFL ready man that has positional flexibility and provides a lot of value on first down and short yardage situations. He would transition fluidly to a 4-3 scheme if we ever transition away from Rex while still fitting the mold of the larger more multiple OLB's Rex seems to prefer (Calvin Pace). He will need to develop his pass rushing skills if he's to develop into an upper level OLB or DE in the future. Hard not to see his value. I said the anti Von Miller, that's what I prefer in my 3-4 OLB, but that type of player wouldn't fit anywhere in a 4-3. In Shaq we get a guy that is elite in the run game, could develop his pass rush, but fit's both defensive systems. I would say that's a win for us. Shoulder injury might have dropped him a bit, but that doesn't seem like it will be an issue. 2. Reggie Ragland- Natural football player. Great size and strength. Very good instincts. Some question his speed. Ragland makes up for any deficiencies with instincts and he's not slow for a guy his size. Massive, physical MLB, who even played some DT in pass situations at Alabama. Size allows him to be multiple even if it's for just a couple plays. Very Large and strong players who run as fast as Ragland can be multiple. Buffalo's defense is designed for MLB's to do the dirty work so I expect Ragland will lead the team in tackles this year. Might never be an perfect Dime or Nickle LB but not a liability either. Ragland is a great fit for Rex and once again can play MLB in 4-3 or a 3-4, so safe pick for any coach or system. Diagnosed with enlarged Aorta which caused him to slip down draft boards. Is not expected to have further complications. 3. Adolphus Washington- Incredible hands. You can't lift your hands without them getting an instantaneous slap. Big player but seems more finesses vs power at this point. Incredible pass rushing moves. Washingon has great balance for a man his size and will create moments leaving the OL grabbing at nothing. He has multiple move progressions, combining 3 to 4 moves in one rush. This isn't the type of technique you typically see from a college player. Has potential to provide immediate impact in all pass rushing situations. Ability to anchor needs to improve. Would be a liability against the run at NT, but not so much at DE. Likely a better fit long term as 3-4 DE or 4-3 DT. I don't see him starting year one as he needs to find balance between run and pass, but we will see him in just about all pass rushing downs. In that situation he can play anywhere on the line. This will be a third straight pick that is capable of playing in either scheme and multiple positions. 4.Cardale Jones- One of, if not the most physically gifted QB;s in the draft. Large QB that has a rocket and can make any throw on the field. Has ability to absorb hits with his large frame. Can run but not a running QB. Jones skill set and body type is meant for a natural pocket passer but Jones is capable of running either in improvisation or pre-designed plays if asked to do so. Jones needs to improve accuracy and RZ touch. He can display great touch at times but the next minute throw a rocket into the end zone from five yards out. Development, reading, timing, that will decide things, but that's what decides all QB's. Having Jones skills to start out with aren't a luxury many people have and something rarely seen in the 4th round. 5. Jonathan Williams- Williams was the work horse running back for the most run lopsided team in the SEC and he did a very good job at it. As NFL tested as any player in the draft. Williams is an all around back. He can catch, block, run, power, speed, not breakaway or corner turning, but he will bust the seam if an opening shows up. Good power, usually falls forward. Tries to get the corner at times when he shouldn't and won't be able to at the NFL level, but also doesn't have any issue staying between the tackles. This can be coached. Would have been one of the better backs in the class if he didn't get injured. Will see reps in 2016 and with K. Williams concussion issues, could see Williams rise to the primary #2/spot starter very quickly. Sustained season ending injury which hurt value but is expected to make a full recovery. 6. Kolby Listenbee- Agree with OBD, not a track star. Listenbee runs over the middle. He fights for the ball in the air. He finds the ball and tracks it. Doesn't use his hands that well catching the ball, more of a body catcher. Some injury concerns. Nothing lingering, but frame and size have question marks to if he can hold up. His speed is lethal, very few people will press him. Who is our #3 again? I would say this could be him. Listenbee could see serous playing time. At the least he provides a great deep threat opposite Watkins. We can only hope to have either Listenbee or Goodwin healthy each week. If we go 3 wide, Sammy/Goodwin/Listenbee, we might have the fastest 3 WR's on the field at one time in NFL history. Bold statement, but those are 3 players that can flirt with a 10 second 100. 7. Kevon Seymour- Highly recruited player, blazing speed, had some injury issues but seems to have recovered. Rex said something to the effect of if you're going to draft a guy in the 7th round he might as well be really fast. I don't disagree with that thought process. What's interesting in this draft is the similarities. All 3 of our top defensive picks are multiple position players and all 3 are not 3-4 specific. You also have as many as 5 players that might have had injuries lower draft status but appear healthy now. I like the diversity as one of my fears was getting pigeon holed into a 3-4 by a high draft pick in case we ever showed Rex the door. That didn't happen. In fact we managed the coup in the form of grabbing 3 players that are great fits for Rex, a 4-3, and are all talented. 5 players could start games for us next year. Barring setbacks, I expect Shaq, Reggie, and potentially Listenbee to start. Then we will see a lot of time from Washington and Williams with a potential spot start.

I would say this is the happiest I've been with a draft we had in the first four rounds since I can remember. 3 need positions, all projected to go higher, all can play multiple positions especially in Rex's scheme. Now we get the most physically gifted QB in the draft who showed 2 years ago he has the ability to dominate the best college competition in the land. He will take some time, but great fit for Roman, lot's of potential upside and no need to rush. This draft is lights out.