Mikie2times

Jacksonville could dominate us up front on both sides. It could also go the way of them having the edge but us erasing it as that offense is not very efficient and Tyrod is capable of doing a lot with broken plays and aggressive defenses. This is a game we can win. I posted back in October the drought would end based on turnover ratio. At that time the turnover ratio was getting so extreme it would have been downright improbable to miss the playoffs. It normalized and we almost missed the playoffs, but still the most predictable angle on turnovers is QB play. Taylor doesn't throw INT's. He has 4 all year, 1 in every 105 attempts, only 4 fumbles. He has been that way every year. Bortles has 13 INT's, 1 in every 40 attempts, and 9 fumbles. He has been turnover prone every year. Bills ranked 6th in INT's, Jacksonville 2nd, but the Bills have the clear edge based on QB's. In a close defensive oriented game turnovers always determine the outcome. Jacksonville has benefited from this all season. I don't see them doing so on Sunday. We want a sloppy defensive game. Jacksonville plays that way naturally. This was a great draw for us in the scheme of things.

We traded or didn't sign just about every key player we had on the roster and nearly all of them made the playoffs on other teams. Now here we are. A part of me thinks they have to regret not being in Buffalo right now. Some didn't have much say, I get that, but I think about Marcell and I just get the feeling he would rather be with Kyle celebrating what has been a career long pursuit with a rabid fan base than lacing it up for the Jags Sunday. I look at Woods and have to think he's not only F'N crazy, but he was a guy with heart and he wanted it to end as bad as anybody. You can say it's all about money, but when you watch that locker room video clearly it's more to some. It has to feel disappointing to these guys that the drought ended without them here and they couldn't be part of the group to get it done. Further it has to be disappointing seeing the love displayed by our fan base compared to that of the teams they landed on. We treated the team like they just won a super bowl. LA vs BUF making the playoffs just isn't the same thing. If this has been posted on already my apologies. Just something I have thought about outside of the game.

He must be atheist

Most statistical evidence suggests even the most bold HC's should be going for it more on 4th down. I blame god for these spineless decisions.

I agree with this 100%. He has his limitations. That said how many deep balls this season? How much read option? How much Shotgun? How much designed roll outs? We aren't utilizing his best tools and that's the difference between this years Tyrod verse more successful versions the previous two years. Again, debatable if those seasons are enough to call him the guy, but much better play. High points per game, dynamic running attack, and always a deep ball threat.

I think we would love his play, but I really can't stand his personality. I don't find it entertaining. It has nothing to do with the Patriots.

These are rare athletes and rare athletes are even more rare in high school and college than the NFL. These type of players can make a teams offense at those levels. If a player is 6 foot+ and has the agility and acceleration to play CB he is most likely going to be developed as a WR. That is so long as his hands aren't made from stone.

I see Tyrod as the same as politics right now Best drought QB of the playoff era /So what? Wins games by being productive and not making mistakes/can't win games by himself with his arm Gets great production with his legs/can't read defenses and get the ball downfield Extends plays for big plays/can't sustain timing of plays Like politics some people just go hard to one side.

In a parity driven league, falling more victim to that description by the day, you either have an elite QB or your nothing. In that, even teams with the so called elite signal callers have fallen to the wayside. Who are the the tier 1 contenders in the AFC with an elite QB? NE, KC, PIT? You could argue KC and PIT may or may not fit that description. Most elite QB's have had father time run it's course. While these QB's can still show signs of former greatness the pure dominance that elevated them and the teams they played for isn't the same as it once was. In all this parity teams are trying to follow the win with QB blue print, they do so at the expense of development which often shows up in the form of losing. Specifically, losing through turnovers. Not I say the Buffalo Bills. What makes us special? We never turn the ball over. Repeat like Billy Bean in Moneyball. We never turn the ball over. We know who Tyrod is and isn't. Not a pocket passer, chunk plays buying time, great runner, good deep ball, sacks, poor vision.... etc. He doesn't turn the ball over and he moves the chains enough in combination without turning it over to win games. Now, for the first time, we compliment that style with a defense that generates turnovers in chunks. This team is +10 in turnover margin and while that tends to be one of the least consistent stats around, we do it in such a way that makes it nearly certain it will continue. As stated, Taylor will not suddenly start turning it over. He's been playing turnover free ball since arriving in Buffalo. Now he has a defense that pressures the QB, forces dink and dunk long drives, and poor decisions.... Yes, the drought will end this year. I don't say that as hopeful, fandom, chain reaction, etc. We currently lead the league in turnovers and I expect us to finish the year in the top 3 in that area. You finish top 3 and you make the playoffs. I never would have thought it would be this year, this team. We can beat anybody and we can lose to anybody. In the end it will be a Wild Card.

It's been interesting the hypocrisy expressed by both sides. Both sides of the camp seem to understand the right they have to freedom of speech while simultaneously not respecting that right with the opposing party. You have a right to kneel, people have a right to hate you are kneeling.

Lamar is a train wreck. Just watch Louisville vs Houston last year or any game he plays when he faces pressure. Not pretty. Darnold is likely your #1 if he declares but USC is struggling on offense (struggling is a relative term) Rudolph is the guy I like right now. Oklahoma State is playing like a BCS contender after closing 2016 like a BCS contender. Rudolph has been lights out.

Really stupid one siding the last play. Taylor did his job allowing his WR to get two hands on it. He could have done it better? He also could have ran him out of bounds or into coverage he extends the fade angle and doesn't get up field. Zay ran a great route and got open. Made a good inside adjustment on the throw and put him into position to make a very difficult play.

Correct, I believe we were ranked #1 following week 2 after we destroyed the Patriots and Jaguars by a combined score of 69-17. We won 4 more games the rest of the year.

I see your point. Where I differ from you isn't in the normal "Rex sucks" mentality. He was a genius prior to the NFL changing the rules in the passing game. After that he couldn't adapt. It wasn't just the fact that he is not HC material. He has not shown the ability to get away from Island man coverage, Oversized LB's, stop the run first type defense. That isn't how defense is played anymore. A genius would see that and adapt and not hold onto a defensive style best suited for the 70's/80's/90's/early 2000's.

https://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/49689-kyle-williams-will-start-at-nt/?fromsearch=1 Let's pretend I'm one for one. But seriously, you could see it right away with him. Never thought he would end up being the best DT in Bills history. Who doesn't love the guy.

Kyle got hurt last year and he thought about retiring. Bum.

Game changed and he didn't. After they started calling illegal contact as tight as they do now he never recovered.

I miss me some Lee Evans

He needs to be able to explain what he is seeing/why he is saying what he is saying in casual language. If nothing else on the reply after the play is ran. For example when he called the fade that ended up being a slant. "QB's are looking for one on one coverage and space in that part of the RZ, so if you see the Safety start deep and approach the line it creates a lot of open space to run a fade route to the right corner, I know that's what I would have looked for but the slant was also a very good call" Fans can understand that type of explanation and gain insight into the game as a result. If he gets overly technical or just decides to call plays out with no explanation it will not be received well long term.

In watching his college type I was overwhelmed by how he could anchor. He was doubled on almost every play and would never give an inch. The guy is strong as an ox. He's probably already a top 5 run defender at DE. Obviously we would like some healthy sack number from our DE's. Time will tell how he develops his pass rushing repertoire.

I forget the poster who said this, Magic something (please reveal yourself for posting what was a very rational contrarian view which I enjoy). He said something like.... Watkins/Darby/Gilmore/Woods/TD Mike < White/Hyde/Poyer/Tolbert/Matthews/Zay/Gaines.... Most the board gave up when we lost the players to the left. Maybe we need to circle back on that one. If you look at my post that is meant to be a barometer for the past, then look at the names on the left, how many of those guys drove the numbers toward that barometer and why specifically in 2016? Watkins didn't play. Darby was awful his second season. Gilmore was above average but soft in the run and had a down year. Woods was average. TD Mike was running behind one of the best run blocking lines in the league. Hyde and Poyer are massive upgrades at Safety. Tolbert is a better compliment to McCoy. Pure bruiser and good at it running behind that same line Mike benefited from. Matthews > Woods, better size, catch radius, better production. White/Gaines, not your island corners, but for this defense, they have the perfect skill sets. Zay is athletic and will keep developing. Where most of us saw the departures as reason to throw in the towel, you could just as easily argue that we upgraded this team. Oh by the way, we added a massive amount of draft picks in the process. This team is going in the right direction. Beane isn't afraid to make the decisions he feels are right despite public backlash. This is not a lost year. We have outside playoff aspirations and we have a lot of reasons to feel good about the coming years. Very excited about next week. I think we will "upset" Carolina.

Offensively in 2015 we finished 9th in DVOA in 2016 we finished 10th. In points in 2015 we finished 12th and in 2016 we finished 10th. If you were provided this information without identifying the team and asked if this this phantom team was likely above/below average on offense the answer would have to be above average. Defensively in 2014 we ranked 2nd in DVOA , 2015 24th, and 2016 27th. 2014 in points 4th, 2015 15th, 2016 we ranked 16th. If you were provided this information without identifying the team and asked if this phantom team was likely above/below average on defense the answer would be? 2014, clearly above, that stat line is elite. 2015 and 2016 both show poor DVOA and just about dead middle of the pack in PPG. I would have to lean below average. Have we fallen that far? I really don't think we have. It's assumed that we have, but it just doesn't pass the logic test. In the stats above Sammy gave us something in the back half of 2015 and that was about it. Do you think it was Robert Woods who did it? Matthews=Woods. 2016 WR core or 2017? Keep in mind, no Sammy in 2016..... I would take 2017 all day. Shady is healthy and is the cornerstone. Is it reasonable to assume we will be top 15 in DVOA again? How isn't it? On defense we have no clue.This was an elite defense 3 years ago with very few parts of that team left. Rex destroyed any ability for us to even get a reasonable barometer but I will try anyway. 3 pieces on the DL remain from 2014 with the 4th being Shaq. The secondary, despite the loss of two starting corners could be better with White and Gaines in zone roles compared to Gilmore and Darby on islands. Our Safety play will be vastly superior. Rex really messed things up. Is it reasonable to assume we will be in the top 15 in DVOA for defense? Certainly possible. If we end up in the top 15 in both offense and defense we start to flirt with more likely than not to make the playoffs. As far as the fans right now, I think this is the opposite of 2015, instead of unrealistic optimism we have unrealistic doom.

Given our collective track history I would be concerned if people voted high for Beane.

Lets review in 3 years.

I consider it basically the same which you already know and will likely follow with pointing out the value of a 2019 4th rounder. Lets just stay on point. The guy called something out of thin air and got ripped apart for 17 pages. Give him some love.