Mikie2times

If that’s your thoughts I would probably put Teddy in the no pile than the yes side. He could also fall into not sure pretty easily.

Thought this would be relevant to add regarding the incoming class. Since the 2000 draft only 4 picks amassed over 12,000 passing yards and got selected in the 1st or 2nd round. It looks like Rudolph and Baker will both fit that criteria. If that plays out this is how the list would look sorted by most passing yards in college in order. 1. Baker Mayfield 2. Mason Rudolph 3. Phillip Rivers* 4. Kevin Kolb 5. Derek Carr* 6. Jared Goff*

Based on the Lamar Jackson thread I decided to look at every 1st and 2nd round QB taken since 2000. First thing I was looking at was % of total yards in college attributed to rushing. After that study I also found some meaningful trends in career passing yards. This list omits a couple of players without college data on College Football Reference such as Joe Flacco. Criteria: I judged successful/unsuccessful/unsure in large part based on subjective criteria. I did not take draft position into account. If I would be ok with that player being my starter as either the franchise guy or a future guy he made it. Longevity in the league also played a role. Successful QB's- 21 Players Philip Rivers, Derek Carr, Jared Goff, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Chad Pennington, Marcus Mariota, Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Teddy Bridgewater, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith, Carson Wentz, Michael Vick, Cam Newton Unsuccessful QB's-39 Players Kevin Kolb, Byron Leftwich, Brady Quinn, Geno Smith, John Beck, Brian Brohm, Matt Leinart, Robert Griffin, Colin Kaepernick, Chad Henne, Tim Tebow, Brandon Weeden, Patrick Ramsey, Rex Grossman, Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Johnny Manziel, EJ Manuel, Jake Locker, Kellen Clemens, David Carr, Jason Cambell, Joey Harrington, Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert, JP Losman, JaMarcus Russell, Drew Stanton, Quincy Carter, Vince Young, Marques Tuiasosopo, Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, Mark Sanchez, Christian Hackenberg, Paxton Lynch Early/Not Sure- 4 Players Mitch Trubisky, Blake Bortles (If he wins a Super Bowl?), Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes Hit %= 21/60= 35% Let's look at the running QB's. Only 8 out of 60 players had 20% or more of total yards attributed to rushing. Tyrod Taylor would have made this list (23.8%), Russell Wilson would not (10.8%). Neither of them are on it because they didn't get picked in the first 2 rounds. Out of the 8 Players who did, Cam Newton and Michael Vick are the only ones in the Successful department. The over 20% list includes in order: 1. Cam Newton 2. Vince Young 3. Colin Kaepernick 4. Michael Vick 5. Tim Tebow 6. Johnny Manziel 7. Jake Locker 8. Marques Tuiasosopo Lamar Jackson at 31.4% would be the 3rd highest total out of any QB drafted since 2000 in the first 2 rounds. Only Newton and Young had more yards attributed to running. After Tuiasosopo is Drew Stanton, Robert Griffin, then Mariota who came in at 17.2%. It gets interesting when you sort the list by career passing yards. Above 9,300: 13 of 23 successful (Mayfield, Rosen, Rudolph, Jackson) In Between: 3 of 29 successfull (Darnold) Below 5,500 : 5 of 8 successful (Allen) In the below 5,500 class, you can see some very high picks. Only Osweiler and Rodgers were taken outside the top 10. This group also has the only successful 20%+ rushers in Newton and Vick both being #1 OVR selections. Looking at last year Watson would have been above 9,300 yards with 16% of his yards from rushing. Nearly identical to Mariota. Mahomes would have been north of 9,300 with Trubisky falling in the below 5,500 category. So all three fit into the "successful" group. Under 5,500 success rate seems to be a reflection of top talent/coming out early. Obviously this analysis is boxed off into 1st and 2nd round picks, looking at this stat across all picks wouldn't be as valuable. By getting into the 1st or 2nd round you need NFL skills, so maybe it's better to say NFL skills plus production in the air does seem to matter.

No thanks and yes, I have watched him. Long release, stares down his targets, takes a long time in the pocket leading to high sack rates. Learned the game with his legs first and now is trying to learn with his head. Certainly a project. If we don't want to invest in Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield I would rather invest outside the QB position. Prefer the former.

Actually check that, -9.5, maybe -10. It will be one or the other.

I'm going -13.5

Good adjustment by Jacksonville. Pittsburgh has been rolling that Safety up all half.

I can't stand how many stubborn NFL coaches refuse to sneak on 3rd/4th and 1.

You need some measuring stick. "My eyes" don't exactly hold up in court, but I get it. We can't throw out what we observe for just data. TT would be HOF if we did. I watched plenty of both and have ran adjusted numbers. Ben probably gets the nod, but it's not a title wave victory IMO. Hard to compare players in different eras.

Reaching on that. Adjust the data to match the era. He might have a leg up, but good luck finding anything to validate that opinion with adjusted data outside of Ben winning a Super Bowl.

Great comparison.

Seems like a lot of you think Jacksonville has a better shot at New England. Sometimes the Patriots can be beat with a great defensive team, but I think you need a top 5 QB to have a chance this year. You need to match points.

He's been a franchise QB for over a decade. You could argue he isn't as good as the 3-5 other franchise QB's at various stages of his career, but that is about the most his detractors could say.

In the last 4 quarters vs Pittsburgh, Jacksonville has 21 points on defense. That alone has outscored Pittsburgh in roughly 6 quarters this year.

Jacksonville is the more developed version of what this team wants to be. Don't make mistakes. Let other teams beat themselves. Play great defense.

I think what is mostly being discussed is the RPO's, spread, read option, single wing concepts. With NFL athletes, it still will boil down to who can throw the ball better in the conventional passing game.

Outside of your take on Jackson I agree with everything. I don't see Jackson converting over well. Just too dependent on his legs. We will see. This was sort of the purpose of the thread. People keep saying draft a franchise QB. I think many feel we could do that with our volume of picks. Not that simple. Lot of teams with QB interest drafting very high. Your two "Franchise" players are likely gone by 4. Your reach Franchise player = Allen or Baker is probably gone by 6. This thread is looking more at the top end of the draft. If we find value in the mid Allen/Rudolph/Jackson this isn't an issue. I just don't like the idea of any of the 3.

I completely agree that this whole climate could change based on FA. But the notion that we can land Rosen or Darnold even with the resources we have is still not locked in. Cleveland is likely interested with one of the top 4 picks, then the Colts/Giants take the other. If you got a 3rd guy you really like he probably gets taken by Denver or the Jets.

I look at the Colts and Giants as one team in the context I proposed. Will one of them go QB? I think so.

I just stuck with the higher drafting teams with the viewpoint that at max 3 players fit the franchise label. Obviously anything can happen. We could take one later, but later doesn't really fit the mold of Franchise QB. Agree, I think he is highly overrated and is the last guy I want out of all of them outside of Jackson.

Lot of conversation about us getting a QB in round one. I want to try and get that centered more in reality as far as what that likely means. Candidates Josh Rosen- Top 5- I feel he will be the first off the board Sam Darnold- Top 5- Worthy of a franchise QB pick. A bit concerned over turnovers last year. Josh Allen- Top 20- Incredible skill set, wanted to see it translate to Wyoming being ranked Baker Mayfield- This years Deshaun Watson? Could be anywhere from first round to Top 10, even Top 5 (We will get into that) Lamar Jackson- Late 1st/2nd- Incredible talent, but just don't see his skill converting Mason Rudolph-Late 1st/2nd- Lot of people like him, so do I, but is he your pick to solve for a Franchise QB? Competition Cleveland: Picks 1 and 4 Giants: Pick 2 Colts: Pick 3 Broncos: Pick 5 Jets: Pick 6 Any QB with a reasonable expectation of being a Franchise QB will not get past the Jets. Broncos and Jets are desperate. It would seem implausible Cleveland passes at one then the Giants and Colts also pass. Things could look much different come draft time but from the looks of it now it would seem our target would have to be Cleveland's #4 with the hope that they go QB with the first overall. Our two first round picks don't equal the value of the 4th pick on draft charts. With this many teams targeting QB's that pick is going to be at a premium. If it's Darnell or Rosen #4 might not even be enough to get it done. At which point do you like anybody else enough to jump to 4 because if you do they likely won't pass Denver or New York. We can talk drafting a Franchise QB and we likely have the resources to do it, but positioning to do so will not be easy.

We needed to end the drought. That was just a weight on us that needed to go away. Past that I don't put much into this season as far as qualifying the teams future. We had much better teams over the last 17 years than the 2017 Bills. I do feel good about the leadership and direction and that probably means the most long term.

That's gross dude

Anybody I have met from WNY is a Bills fan. I love meeting them. Great guy at work, guys as good of a person as I have ever met. We all have our experiences. I know plenty of people like me exist. Detroit market, the Bills were always on. We went to our first Super Bowl when I was 8. Somewhere in the 8-16 range you typically discover a team you like and that was an exciting team. I identified with the fan base over time. Our fan base stands for my value system. Buffalo has always felt like the perfect throwback. I can't not like the Bills, it didn't really feel like I got a choice in it either which I'm sure most you feel.

You might be surprised how many current 30-40 year old's grew up as Bills fans during the Kelly era and stayed with the team. They had a large national presence in that era. Wasn't uncommon for them to be on national TV 75% of the games.